CRB AL3Cuiaba MT0

HT 1–0Sun 27 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 28–13On targetOn target 10–4CornersCorners 7–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 17:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Two Série B promotion rivals separated by two points meet at the Rei Pelé, where CRB are unbeaten in seven home matches.

CRB are the likelier winners. But 1.95 for a CRB win and 1.25 for CRB to avoid defeat ask more than the form supports; both teams to score at 1.91, over 2.5 goals at 2.10 and a first-half goal at 1.38 are the prices with a case.

Context

CRB go into Round 30 eighth on 45 points and Cuiabá tenth on 43, both inside the group still chasing promotion places that remain live. Série B promotes its top two directly and puts the teams finishing third to sixth into two-legged tie-breakers for the remaining two Série A places, so these points carry more than mid-table weight. Cuiabá arrive having just beaten Náutico 3-0, which pulled them back into that fight. The gap is narrow enough that one result at the Rei Pelé can reshuffle how both clubs reach the promotion pack.
- Going into Round 30, CRB are eighth on 45 points and Cuiabá tenth on 43.
- Série B promotes the top two directly and sends the teams finishing third to sixth into two-legged tie-breakers for the other two Série A places.
- Cuiabá's 3-0 home win over Náutico on 21 September pulled them back into the G6 chase.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 17:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Bressan sat out CRB's previous match through suspension and is back in contention for the Cuiabá fixture, with no CRB player suspended for the game. He is a centre-back in a side whose defensive numbers have frayed lately, with nine goals conceded across three wins and three defeats in the last six league matches. A settled back line matters against a Cuiabá team that scored three times from quick transitions against Náutico. Whether Bressan walks straight back into the eleven is unresolved, so his return reads as restored defensive depth rather than a certain change.
- Bressan completed his suspension in CRB's previous match and is available for the Cuiabá fixture.
- CRB have no suspended players for the game and have a full squad available.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 17:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Kauan scored twice in Cuiabá's 3-0 win over Náutico, taking his Série B tally to five goals and three assists, and has moved into the starting side over the last few rounds. The 2006-born Kauan gives Cuiabá a second route to goal alongside its usual quick-transition play. CRB have conceded nine goals in their last six league matches, so a scorer in this run of form is a live threat at the Rei Pelé. His starting place is recent rather than long established, and how Cuiabá line up away from home is the open question.
- Kauan scored twice in Cuiabá's 3-0 win over Náutico on 21 September.
- The goals took him to five in Série B, with three assists, after he moved into the starting side in recent rounds.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 17:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Fábio Matias has been in charge of CRB for 13 matches, a tenure that has taken the club from the relegation picture into the fight for a top-six finish. A home win over Sport lifted CRB to 45 points, the total the club had identified as its first target for the season. That context shapes how an in-form home side approaches a direct rival for the same promotion places. CRB's recent defensive record has slipped, with nine goals conceded in six league games, which is the main counterweight to their momentum.
- Fábio Matias has been in charge of CRB for 13 matches, a run that has put the club in the fight for its main objective.
- CRB reached 45 points with a home win over Sport, the total the club had set as its first target for the season.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 17:54 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.95
The read
CRB's unbeaten home run and stronger home scoring give them the edge.
- CRB home split: 5 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in 7 home matches
- Cuiaba away split: 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in 7 away matches
- CRB home goals for average 1.86, goals against 0.86
- Cuiaba away goals for average 1.29, goals against 1.43
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCRB ALEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CRB's home second-half scoring average is higher than Cuiaba's away output.
- CRB home second-half goals for average 1.0, against 0.43
- Cuiaba away second-half goals for average 0.71, against 0.71
- CRB's last 6 second halves: 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Cuiaba's last 6 second halves: 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonCRB ALEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
CRB's unbeaten home run and stronger home scoring give them the edge. Cuiaba's high draw rate and the tight promotion context make a draw plausible.
- CRB home split: 5 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in 7 home matches
- Cuiaba away split: 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in 7 away matches
- Cuiaba have drawn 13 of 29 league matches
- Cuiaba away record includes 3 draws in 7 matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCRB AL or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
CRB's home first-half scoring and defensive record give them the edge before the break. Both teams have similar first-half goal averages, making a level opening half plausible.
- CRB home first-half goals for average 0.86, against 0.43
- Cuiaba away first-half goals for average 0.57, against 0.71
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCRB AL or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Both teams' home and away goal totals average above 2.5, and CRB's recent games have been high-scoring.
- CRB home total goals average 2.71 (1.86 for, 0.86 against)
- Cuiaba away total goals average 2.71 (1.29 for, 1.43 against)
- CRB's last 6 matches saw over 2.5 goals in 5 of 6
- H2H: 2 of the last 5 meetings went over 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Cuiaba have conceded in every away match and CRB score regularly at home, while Cuiaba also score in most away games.
- CRB home matches: both teams scored in 5 of 7
- Cuiaba away matches: both teams scored in 5 of 7
- Cuiaba away clean sheets: 0 in 7 matches
- CRB home scored in 6 of 7 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CRB's home attack averages close to two goals per game.
- CRB home goals for average 1.86
- CRB scored 2+ in each of their last 3 home matches
- CRB home scored in 6 of 7 matches
- Cuiaba away conceded 1.43 goals per match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCRB AL over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba score in most away games, making a CRB clean sheet unlikely.
- Cuiaba away scored in 5 of 7 matches
- CRB home clean sheets: 2 in 7 matches
- Cuiaba away goals for average 1.29
- CRB home goals against average 0.86
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCuiaba MT to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CRB score in nearly every home match, so Cuiaba are unlikely to shut them out.
- Cuiaba away clean sheets: 0 in 7 matches
- CRB home scored in 6 of 7 matches
- CRB home goals for average 1.86
- Cuiaba away goals against average 1.43
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCRB AL to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both teams' first-half goal averages and recent matches point to at least one goal before half-time.
- CRB home first-half total goals average 1.29
- Cuiaba away first-half total goals average 1.28
- CRB's last 6 first halves all had at least one goal
- Cuiaba's last 6 first halves had goals in 5 of 6
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average second-half total is close to 1.5, and recent matches split evenly.
- CRB home second-half total goals average 1.43
- Cuiaba away second-half total goals average 1.42
- Combined recent second halves: 6 of 12 under 1.5
- CRB's last 6 second halves: 3 of 6 under 1.5
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CRB's home corner counts are modest and recent matches mostly stayed below 10.5.
- CRB home total corners average 9.0 (5.0 for, 4.0 against)
- Cuiaba away total corners average 11.43 (5.86 for, 5.57 against)
- Combined recent matches: 9 of 12 went under 10.5
- CRB's last 6 matches: 5 of 6 went under 10.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's low away shot-on-target counts pull the combined total below the line.
- CRB home total shots on target average 10.72 (7.29 for, 3.43 against)
- Cuiaba away total shots on target average 6.71 (3.14 for, 3.57 against)
- Combined recent matches: 7 of 12 went under 9.5
- Cuiaba's last 6 matches: 6 of 6 went under 9.5
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent card totals have mostly stayed below 3.5, and the home/away averages are under the line.
- CRB home total yellow cards average 3.43
- Cuiaba away total yellow cards average 3.14
- Combined recent matches: 9 of 12 went under 3.5
- CRB's last 6 matches: 3 of 6 over 3.5
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%