Sport Recife2Londrina1

HT 2–1Fri 14 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–820%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 12–15On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 1–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 23:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Sport Recife are likely to avoid defeat at home against relegation-threatened Londrina, but the double chance price offers no value.

The best betting angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.91, with a +7.6-point edge based on both teams' recent low-scoring trends.

Context

Sport Recife home record: 3W-7D-1L (27% win rate).
- Only one home loss all season, but draws against lower-table teams like Botafogo SP and Athletic Club.
- Recent home matches: 1-1 vs Cuiaba, 2-2 vs Operario-PR, 3-3 vs Botafogo SP.
Londrina away record: 2W-2D-7L (18% win rate).
- Recent away results: 0-1 loss to Goias, 1-2 loss to Nautico Recife, 1-1 draw with America Mineiro.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 away matches.
2026: Londrina 1-2 Sport Recife
- 2023: Sport Recife 4-0 Londrina
- 2023: Londrina 1-2 Sport Recife
Sport Recife are 9th with 32 points, just outside the G-6 promotion playoff spots.
- Londrina are 17th, inside the relegation zone.
- Sport's manager publicly warned that games against relegation-threatened teams are not easy.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sport Recife or Draw

1.18fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Sport Recife have lost only once in 11 home matches this season, while Londrina have lost 7 of 11 away.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sport Recife's superior home form and H2H dominance give them the edge, but their high draw rate and Londrina's relegation fight temper confidence.
- Sport Recife home record: 3W-7D-1L in 11 home matches (27% win rate)
- Londrina away record: 2W-2D-7L in 11 away matches (18% win rate)
- H2H: Sport Recife won last 3 meetings, including 2-1 away in April 2026
- Sport Recife form: WDDDD (unbeaten in last 5, but 4 draws)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSport RecifeEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sport Recife's strong home resilience (only one home loss) and Londrina's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Sport Recife home record: 3W-7D-1L (only 1 loss in 11 home games)
- Londrina away record: 2W-2D-7L (7 losses in 11 away games)
- H2H: Sport Recife unbeaten in last 3 meetings (3 wins)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSport Recife or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into halftime level, with Sport Recife's moderate first-half lead rate and Londrina's tendency to trail but not always concede early.
- Sport Recife leading at half time: 33% of matches
- Londrina trailing at half time: 53% of matches
- Sport Recife first half result: 5 draws in last 15 matches
- Londrina first half result: 5 draws in last 15 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Sport Recife win is plausible given their second-half strength and Londrina's away struggles, but specific HT-FT patterns are not strongly evidenced.
- Sport Recife home record: 3W-7D-1L, often drawing at halftime
- Londrina away record: 2W-2D-7L, often losing second half
- H2H: Sport Recife won last 3 meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Sport RecifeEstimated chance20%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and recent matches trending under 2.5 goals, suggesting a low-scoring affair.
- Sport Recife home goals: 17 scored, 13 conceded in 11 home games (avg 2.73 total goals)
- Londrina away goals: 12 scored, 18 conceded in 11 away games (avg 2.73 total goals)
- Sport Recife recent form: 4 of last 5 matches had under 2.5 goals
- Londrina recent form: 3 of last 5 matches had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sport Recife's decent defensive home record and Londrina's occasional scoring struggles away make a clean sheet for either side plausible.
- Sport Recife home clean sheets: 3 in 11 home games (27%)
- Londrina away failed to score: 4 in 11 away games (36%)
- H2H: In last 3 meetings, both teams scored in 2 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Sport Recife first half goals: 0.4 per game average
- Londrina first half goals: 0.5 per game average
- Sport Recife first half goals conceded: 0.5 per game average
- Londrina first half goals conceded: 0.9 per game average
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to see more goals as both teams push for results, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Sport Recife second half goals: 0.7 per game average (1.1 total - 0.4 first half)
- Londrina second half goals: 0.8 per game average (1.3 total - 0.5 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average slightly exceeds 9.5, but variance is high.
- Sport Recife average corners: 5.2 per game
- Londrina average corners: 4.9 per game
- Combined average: 10.1 corners per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar card averages, and the combined average suggests over 4.5 cards, but disciplinary outcomes are unpredictable.
- Sport Recife average yellow cards: 2.8 per game
- Londrina average yellow cards: 2.7 per game
- Combined average: 5.5 cards per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 62% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Sport Recife has struggled to clear 4.5 cards in recent matches

Sport Recife has fulfilled the Over 4.5 cards prediction in only 1 of 5 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 59%, but the actual fulfillment rate is 20%, well below the expected 3 fulfilled predictions. The current prediction of 50% is below the historical range of 55-65%, suggesting lower confidence than past projections.

Recent evidence for Sport Recife5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Serie B