Cuiaba MT1Fortaleza1

HT 1–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 16–5On targetOn target 3–1CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 00:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Back a slow start: under 0.5 first-half goals (2.15) and halftime draw (1.88) offer the best value, with both teams historically level and goalless at the break.

The full-time under 2.5 goals is likely but fairly priced, while second-half overs and the match draw lack betting appeal.

Context

Cuiabá home first halves: 7 draws, 2 losses, 1 win in 10 matches.
- Only 3 goals scored in those 10 home first halves (0.3 per game).
- Fortaleza away first halves: 6 draws in 10, with just 2 goals scored.
Fortaleza away: 5 goals in 10 matches (0.5 per game).
- Failed to score in 5 of 10 away matches.
- Cuiabá home defense: 7 goals conceded in 10 matches (0.7 per game).
Last 5 H2H: 0-0, 1-0, 5-0, 2-1, 1-0 — four under 2.5 goals.
- The most recent meeting (March 2026) ended 0-0.
- Both teams average under 1.2 goals per match over their last 15.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuiabá's high draw rate, especially at home, combined with Fortaleza's mediocre away form and a recent 0-0 H2H, makes a draw the most likely single outcome, though not overwhelmingly.
- Cuiabá has drawn 10 of 20 league matches (50%), including 5 of 10 at home.
- Fortaleza has drawn 4 of 20, but away they have 3 draws in 10.
- Last H2H (March 2026) ended 0-0.
- Cuiabá's last 5 form: D-L-L-D-W (2 draws); Fortaleza's last 5: L-W-L-W-L (no draws, but alternating results).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiabá is tough to beat at home, and Fortaleza struggles on the road, so backing the home side to avoid defeat is well-supported by season-long trends.
- Cuiabá home: 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses (80% unbeaten).
- Fortaleza away: 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses (50% lose rate).
- Cuiabá lost only 2 of last 15 overall (both away).
- H2H at Cuiabá: Cuiabá won last two home meetings vs Fortaleza (5-0, 2-1).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCuiaba MT or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong tendency to be level at the break, especially Cuiabá at home and Fortaleza away, making a halftime draw highly likely.
- Cuiabá led at halftime in only 13% of last 15 matches; trailed in 27%; 60% were draws.
- Fortaleza led at halftime in 40% of last 15, but away that drops to 20% (2 of 10).
- Last 5 H2H first halves: 4 draws, 1 Cuiabá lead.
- Cuiabá home first halves: 7 draws in 10 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a draw is plausible, the exact HT/FT double of Draw/Draw is less common, but supported by Cuiabá's pattern of low-scoring draws and the recent H2H.
- Cuiabá has drawn 10 of 20 matches; 5 of those were 0-0 or 1-1 at halftime.
- Fortaleza has drawn 4 of 20; only 1 was 0-0 at halftime.
- Last H2H was 0-0 at halftime and fulltime.
- Cuiabá home: 5 draws, 3 were level at halftime.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring profiles, especially Cuiabá at home and Fortaleza away, and recent H2H matches have been tight, making under 2.5 goals highly probable.
- Cuiabá averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over last 15 matches; 73% of those matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Fortaleza averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over last 15; 60% of their last 15 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 0-0, 1-0, 5-0, 2-1, 1-0 — four of five had under 2.5 goals.
- Cuiabá home record: 8 goals for, 7 against in 10 matches (1.5 total goals per game). Fortaleza away: 5 for, 11 against in 10 (1.6 total).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have inconsistent scoring, especially Fortaleza on the road, and H2H history shows few matches where both find the net, supporting a 'No' for both teams to score.
- Cuiabá failed to score in 5 of last 15 matches; Fortaleza failed to score in 4 of last 15.
- In last 5 H2H, both teams scored only once (2-1 in 2023).
- Fortaleza away: scored only 5 goals in 10 matches, failing to score in 5 of those.
- Cuiabá home: scored 8 in 10, but 5 of those matches saw one or both teams fail to score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams start slowly, with very low first-half scoring rates, and H2H first halves have been consistently goalless, making under 0.5 first-half goals a strong play.
- Cuiabá averages 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded over last 15; 60% of matches had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
- Fortaleza averages 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded; 67% of their last 15 had under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Last 5 H2H first halves: 0-0, 0-0, 2-0, 1-0, 0-0 — four of five had under 0.5 goals at halftime.
- Cuiabá home first halves: only 3 goals scored in 10 matches; Fortaleza away first halves: 2 scored in 10.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
While first halves are quiet, both teams tend to concede or score after the break, and H2H history shows second-half goals are common, supporting over 0.5 second-half goals.
- Cuiabá's last 15: 73% had at least one second-half goal.
- Fortaleza's last 15: 80% had at least one second-half goal.
- In last 5 H2H, second-half goals occurred in 4 matches (80%).
- Cuiabá home second halves: 5 of 10 had over 0.5; Fortaleza away second halves: 7 of 10 had over 0.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and combined averages suggest a total above 9.5 is slightly more likely than not, though variance is high.
- Cuiabá averages 6.6 corners per match, Fortaleza 7.0; combined average 13.6.
- In last 5 H2H with corner data (4 matches), total corners: 19, 10, 9, 9 — average 11.75.
- Cuiabá home corners: 6.8 per match; Fortaleza away corners: 6.2 per match.
- Both teams' recent matches show high corner counts: Cuiabá last 5: 11,8,5,7,7; Fortaleza: 7,10,4,10,11.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages sit right at 4.5, but Fortaleza's higher away card count and the competitive nature of the fixture tilt the probability slightly toward over 4.5 cards.
- Cuiabá averages 1.9 yellow cards per match, Fortaleza 2.6; combined 4.5.
- In last 5 H2H with card data (4 matches), total cards: 2, 5, 5, 3 — average 3.75, but two matches had 5+.
- Cuiabá home: 2.1 yellows per match; Fortaleza away: 2.8 yellows per match.
- Referee data unavailable, but both teams have above-average foul rates (Cuiabá 13.9, Fortaleza 14.3).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%