Vila Nova0Cuiaba MT0

HT 0–0Wed 7 Oct 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges3–538%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 13–9On targetOn target 3–1CornersCorners 8–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 06:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Vila Nova lead Serie B with seven rounds left and host Cuiabá, six points off the last promotion place, in round 32.

Six home league wins from seven since July point to a home win, though Cuiabá have drawn six of 15 away games this season and won the June meeting 1-0. The home win at 1.88 and over 10.5 corners at 2.2 offer most; several of the other quoted prices also offer something.

Context

Vila Nova won 1-0 at Botafogo-SP on Oct. 3, their first away win since May, and reclaimed top spot on 57 points with seven rounds left. That leaves the leaders nine points clear of seventh as they return to the OBA for this midweek fixture. The cushion at the top is thin, though: second-placed Juventude are one point behind, so anything other than a home win could cost Vila Nova first place.
- Vila Nova beat Botafogo-SP 1-0 away on Oct. 3, 2026, with Janderson scoring, to return to first place.
- The result was Vila Nova's first away win since May and left them on 57 points, nine clear of seventh, with seven rounds remaining.
- Vila Nova have held the Serie B lead in more rounds than any other club this season (rounds 5, 6, 12, 14, 15, 16, 29, 30 and 31).
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 06:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Cuiabá's 2-0 home win over Ponte Preta on Oct. 3 took them to 46 points in tenth and kept a push for the G6 alive with seven rounds to play. They now need points away to the league leaders to close a six-point gap to sixth. The away trip is the test: their most recent game on the road, at CRB on Sept. 27, ended in a 3-0 defeat.
- Cuiabá beat Ponte Preta 2-0 at the Arena Pantanal on Oct. 3, 2026, with goals from Kauan Christyan and Pedro Henrique.
- The win took Cuiabá to 46 points in tenth, six behind sixth place, and confirmed Ponte Preta's relegation with seven rounds left.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 06:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Vila Nova's own post after the Botafogo-SP win set out Wednesday's challenge — Cuiabá at home at the OBA, 8:30pm local — adding 'é pra lotar de novo' as the club pushed for another full house. Strong home backing has accompanied the leaders' promotion run, and the club is framing the midweek round as another big home occasion. Crowd support is context rather than a guarantee, and Cuiabá have already won away from home this season.
- Vila Nova's official post on Oct. 3, 2026 confirmed Wednesday's home match against Cuiabá at 8:30pm local time.
- The club said the next challenge is the game at the OBA and added 'é pra lotar de novo' in a push for a full house.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 06:43 · Europe/Bucharest
That is the basis for expecting a low-scoring home performance here: 0.29 goals conceded per home match, with Vila Nova scoring in six of the seven. It is a partial-season window rather than a full campaign, and the single home defeat in it shows the record is strong rather than untouchable. Cuiabá have managed five goals in eight away matches tracked since July 12, 2026, scoring in five of them and failing to score in three.
- Seven home league matches from July 22 to Sept. 25, 2026: 6 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat, 2 goals conceded, 5 clean sheets.
- Vila Nova scored in 6 of those 7 home matches, averaging 2.14 goals per home game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Vila Nova have been very strong at home and Cuiaba have struggled to score on the road, so the home win is the most likely single result.
- Vila Nova home record: 12W-2D-1L, 31 goals for, 11 against in 15 home matches.
- Cuiaba away record: 4W-6D-5L, 13 goals for, 16 against in 15 away matches.
- Vila Nova home form last three: 2-0, 1-0, 2-0, with no goals conceded.
- Cuiaba away last three: 0-3 loss, 1-1 draw, 0-2 loss, one goal scored.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVila NovaEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Vila Nova start strongly at home and Cuiaba often concede early, so a home lead at half-time is the most likely outcome.
- Vila Nova home first-half goals for average: 1.14; against: 0.14.
- Cuiaba away first-half goals for average: 0.50; against: 0.75.
- Vila Nova scored in the first half in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Cuiaba conceded first-half goals in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostVila NovaEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova are strong in the second half at home and Cuiaba tend to concede after the break.
- Vila Nova home second-half goals for average: 1.00; against: 0.14.
- Cuiaba away second-half goals for average: 0.63; against: 0.88.
- Vila Nova scored second-half goals in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Cuiaba conceded second-half goals in 2 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostVila NovaEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Vila Nova have been very strong at home and Cuiaba have struggled to score on the road, so the home win is the most likely single result. Cuiaba’s away record is draw-heavy, and they held Vila Nova to a draw in the most recent home meeting.
- Vila Nova home record: 12W-2D-1L, 31 goals for, 11 against in 15 home matches.
- Cuiaba away record: 4W-6D-5L, 13 goals for, 16 against in 15 away matches.
- Cuiaba away record includes 6 draws in 15 matches.
- The last meeting at Vila Nova ended 2-2 in September 2025.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonVila Nova or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova start strongly at home and Cuiaba often concede early, so a home lead at half-time is the most likely outcome. Both teams have had several first halves with few goals, so a level score at the break is plausible.
- Vila Nova home first-half goals for average: 1.14; against: 0.14.
- Cuiaba away first-half goals for average: 0.50; against: 0.75.
- Cuiaba’s last six first halves: 1-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1.
- Vila Nova’s last six first halves: 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-3.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonVila Nova or DrawEstimated chance84%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams’ recent matches have often stayed under three goals, and Vila Nova’s home defence is very strong.
- Vila Nova’s last six matches: totals of 1, 2, 1, 2, 2 and 5 goals.
- Cuiaba’s last six matches: totals of 2, 3, 3, 2, 3 and 2 goals.
- Vila Nova home games average 2.43 total goals (2.14 + 0.29).
- Cuiaba away games average 2.75 total goals (1.13 + 1.63).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
The home side’s strong defensive record makes it more likely that only one team scores.
- Vila Nova home clean sheets: 5 of 7.
- Cuiaba failed to score in 3 of 8 away matches.
- Vila Nova home goals against average: 0.29.
- Cuiaba away goals for average: 1.13.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
The first-half scoring averages point to at least one goal before the break.
- Vila Nova home first-half goals for average: 1.14.
- Cuiaba away first-half goals against average: 0.75.
- Cuiaba away first-half goals for average: 0.50.
- Vila Nova home first-half goals against average: 0.14.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent second halves have often been low-scoring, and Vila Nova’s home defence is strong after the break.
- Vila Nova’s last six second halves produced five goals in total.
- Cuiaba’s last six second halves produced eight goals in total.
- Vila Nova home second-half goals against average: 0.14.
- Cuiaba away second-half goals against average: 0.88.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova have kept clean sheets in most home matches, while Cuiaba have often been held scoreless away.
- Vila Nova home clean sheets: 5 of 7 matches.
- Cuiaba away goals for average: 1.13.
- Vila Nova home goals against average: 0.29.
- Cuiaba failed to score in 3 of 8 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCuiaba MT not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vila Nova have scored in nearly every home match and Cuiaba have conceded in all away matches.
- Cuiaba away clean sheets: 0 of 8 matches.
- Vila Nova home scoring: scored in 6 of 7 home matches.
- Vila Nova home goals for average: 2.14.
- Cuiaba away goals against average: 1.63.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostVila Nova to scoreEstimated chance86%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both teams create a fair number of corners, and the combined home and away averages sit above the line.
- Vila Nova home corners average: 6.86; opponent corners: 4.86.
- Cuiaba away corners average: 6.00; opponent corners: 5.75.
- Combined home/away corner average: about 11.7.
- Vila Nova’s last home match had 14 corners; Cuiaba’s last away match had 14.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shot averages are right around the line, so over 27.5 is a slight possibility.
- Vila Nova home shots average: 17.71; opponent shots: 9.57.
- Cuiaba away shots average: 12.25; opponent shots: 15.63.
- Combined home/away shot average: about 27.6.
- Vila Nova’s last six matches averaged 27.7 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 27.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent on-target totals have been mixed and the combined averages are near the line.
- Vila Nova home shots on target average: 6.57.
- Cuiaba away shots on target average: 3.25.
- Vila Nova’s last six matches averaged 9.2 on-target shots.
- Cuiaba’s last six matches averaged 7.3 on-target shots.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card counts have been close to the line, with recent matches often around five.
- Vila Nova home yellow cards per match: 2.00; opponent yellows: 3.00.
- Cuiaba away yellow cards per match: 1.88; opponent yellows: 1.63.
- Combined home/away card average: about 4.3.
- Vila Nova’s last six matches averaged 4.8 total yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 3.1 price requires 32.3%, above our 24.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Vila Nova: 4/5 recent winner projections matched

4 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Vila Nova matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Vila Nova5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Serie B