Ceara2Londrina1

HT 1–1Sat 22 Aug 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 17:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Ceará are the likely winners based on H2H dominance and Londrina's poor away form, but the odds offer no value.

The best betting angles are the first-half draw (55% model, +11 points edge) and under 0.5 first-half goals (60% model, +24 points edge). Avoid the match winner and double chance markets due to negative edges.

Context

Last three H2H: Ceará 2W 1D, Londrina scored once.
- April 2026 first leg ended 0-0.
- Both 2023 meetings ended 3-1 to Ceará.
Away record: 2W 2D 8L, 13 goals for, 20 against.
- Failed to score in 4 of last 5 away matches.
- Recent away results include losses to Sport Recife and Goias.
Home record: 4W 3D 5L, 13 goals for, 14 against.
- Clean sheets in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- Recent home losses to Cuiaba and CRB show vulnerability.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ceara

1.75fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Ceara's home advantage and strong H2H psychology give them the edge, but their inconsistent home form keeps confidence medium.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ceara's home advantage and strong H2H psychology give them the edge, but their inconsistent home form keeps confidence medium.
- Ceara home record: 4W 3D 5L in 12 home matches (13 goals for, 14 against).
- Londrina away record: 2W 2D 8L in 12 away matches (13 goals for, 20 against).
- H2H last 3: Ceara unbeaten (2W 1D), Londrina scored only once.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCearaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Ceara's home resilience and Londrina's poor away form supports a high probability of Ceara avoiding defeat.
- Ceara home record: 4W 3D 5L (58% unbeaten at home).
- Londrina away record: 2W 2D 8L (only 33% unbeaten away).
- H2H: Ceara unbeaten in last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCeara or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half win rates and often trail or draw at the break, making a draw the most likely half-time result.
- Ceara leading at half time in only 20% of matches, trailing in 53%.
- Londrina leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 47%.
- H2H last meeting: 0-0 at half time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Ceara win is plausible given their second-half improvement and Londrina's away fragility, but the specific sequence is uncommon.
- Ceara home record: 4W 3D 5L, with 2 wins after drawing at half time.
- Londrina away record: 2W 2D 8L, with 1 loss after drawing at half time.
- H2H: Ceara unbeaten in last 3, but last meeting was 0-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/CearaEstimated chance18%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and the recent H2H trend suggests a low-scoring affair, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Ceara home matches average 2.25 total goals (13 for, 14 against in 12 games).
- Londrina away matches average 2.75 total goals (13 for, 20 against in 12 games).
- H2H last meeting ended 0-0; 2 of last 3 H2H had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's away scoring struggles and Ceara's defensive improvement at home make both teams scoring less likely.
- Ceara home: 13 goals for, 14 against in 12 games (clean sheets in 3 of last 5 home).
- Londrina away: 13 goals for, 20 against in 12 games (failed to score in 4 of last 5 away).
- H2H: Londrina scored only once in last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making a goalless first half likely.
- Ceara first half goals: 0.3 per game overall, 0.2 at home (last 15 matches).
- Londrina first half goals: 0.5 per game overall, 0.4 away (last 15 matches).
- H2H last meeting: 0-0 at half time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Teams tend to open up after the break, and both have higher scoring rates in the second half, supporting at least one goal after halftime.
- Ceara second half goals: 0.7 per game overall (1.0 - 0.3 first half).
- Londrina second half goals: 0.8 per game overall (1.3 - 0.5 first half).
- Both teams concede more in second halves (Ceara 0.7 first half conceded vs 0.7 second half; Londrina 0.7 first half conceded vs 0.6 second half).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average in Ceara home games slightly exceeds 9.5, but the margin is thin.
- Ceara average corners per game: 5.3 overall, 5.8 at home.
- Londrina average corners per game: 4.7 overall, 4.3 away.
- Combined average corners in Ceara home games: 10.1 (Ceara 5.8 + opponents 4.3).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have disciplinary records that push the total cards near the 4.5 line, with a slight lean to over based on averages.
- Ceara average yellow cards: 2.2 per game, opponents 2.5.
- Londrina average yellow cards: 2.3 per game, opponents 2.4.
- Combined average cards in matches involving these teams: ~4.7.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 57% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Ceara has been highly reliable when projected to Under 2.5 goals

Ceara's Under 2.5 goals projections have been fulfilled in 7 of 9 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 64.7%, with an expected 5.8 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment exceeded expectation. The current probability of 58% is below the historical range of 60-75%, suggesting the model is less confident than in past projections.

Recent evidence for Ceara9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Serie B