Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Londrina6Ponte Preta0

HT 3–0Tue 15 Sept 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions19–676%

Edges7–188%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 23–14On targetOn target 10–4CornersCorners 10–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 15:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Londrina are favoured but overpriced at 1.29; the real value is in BTTS No at 1.62 and Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.50, both with small positive edges driven by Ponte Preta's away scoring futility.

Avoid the match winner and double chance markets as they offer no value.

Context

Ponte Preta are 20th in Serie B with 10 points from 27 matches, 19 points from safety.
They have lost five straight league games, including a 2-0 defeat at Sport Recife on 11 September and a 2-0 home loss to São Bernardo on 6 September. Their away record is even worse: one win and 12 defeats in 13 away matches, with only 7 goals scored and 33 conceded. This poor form and away record make them vulnerable against Londrina, who are also fighting relegation but have a better recent result.
- Ponte Preta are 20th with 10 points from 27 matches.
- They have lost their last five league games.
- Away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 12 losses in 13 away matches.
- Recent away loss: 0-2 at Sport Recife on 11 September 2026.
Londrina are 18th in Serie B with 25 points from 27 matches, four points above the relegation zone.
Their recent form is mixed: a 2-1 away win at São Bernardo on 10 September, but a 1-2 home loss to Operario-PR on 6 September. At home, they have won 3, drawn 5, and lost 5 in 13 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 16. They need a win to distance themselves from the bottom four, and facing the league's worst team at home is a key opportunity.
- Londrina are 18th with 25 points, four points above the relegation line.
- Recent form: W, L, D in last three matches.
- Home record: 3 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses in 13 home matches.
- Last home match: 1-2 loss to Operario-PR on 6 September 2026.
Ponte Preta's away form is the worst in Serie B.
They have won only once away from home all season, losing 12 times and conceding 33 goals in 13 matches. This includes a 0-2 defeat at Sport Recife on 11 September and a 0-2 loss at America Mineiro on 30 August. Londrina, despite their own struggles, have a better home record and will look to exploit Ponte Preta's defensive frailty on the road.
- Ponte Preta away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 12 losses in 13 matches.
- Goals conceded away: 33 in 13 matches.
- Recent away losses: 0-2 at Sport Recife (11 Sep), 0-2 at America Mineiro (30 Aug).
Ponte Preta centre-back Sergio Palacios missed the Sport match through suspension and is reported available for the trip to Londrina.
His return gives Gilson Kleina another central-defence option alongside Lucas Cunha, Diego Leão and Gustavo Almeida. The report is cautious about whether he starts, but his availability removes one selection constraint for the away side.
- ge reported on 12 September that Sergio Palacios served an automatic suspension against Sport.
- The report said Palacios was available for Ponte Preta's 15 September Série B trip to Londrina.
- ge identified Lucas Cunha, Diego Leão and Gustavo Almeida as the other main defensive options.
ReportedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 15:52 · Europe/Bucharestgege.globo.com · 12 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Londrina

1.29fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Despite Ponte Preta's dreadful away record, the odds imply a 78% chance for Londrina, far above our 55% estimate, so the price offers no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Londrina or Draw

1.07fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 93.5%

0.0ppshort

The market has priced Londrina or Draw at 93% implied probability, leaving no cushion against our 80% estimate.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Londrina

1.67fair 7.69

BetBugs 40% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

The odds imply a 60% chance of Londrina leading at half-time, but their actual leading rate is just 13%.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Londrina or Draw

1.06fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 94.3%

0.0ppshort

The market implies a 94% chance of Londrina or Draw at half-time, far above our 75% estimate.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.13fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Ponte Preta's first-half scoring drought makes BTTS No likely, but the price is too short to back.

Away CornerswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ponte Preta under 4.5

1.43fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Ponte Preta's low away corner average and Londrina's tendency to concede corners at home support the under.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's home advantage and Ponte Preta's dreadful away form (12 losses in 13) make the home side the likelier winner, though Londrina's own inconsistency tempers confidence.
- Londrina home record: 3W-5D-5L, 16 goals for, 16 against in 13 home matches
- Ponte Preta away record: 1W-0D-12L, 7 goals for, 33 against in 13 away matches
- Last 5 H2H: Londrina won 4-1 away in May 2026; Ponte Preta won 2-0 home in Oct 2025; 0-0 draw in Oct 2025; Ponte Preta won 1-0 home in Aug 2025; Ponte Preta won 1-0 home in Aug 2023
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLondrinaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's away futility and current five-match losing streak with no goals scored make a Londrina win or draw highly probable.
- Ponte Preta away record: 1W-0D-12L, 7 goals for, 33 against in 13 away matches
- Londrina home record: 3W-5D-5L, 16 goals for, 16 against in 13 home matches
- Ponte Preta last 5 matches: LLLLL, 0 goals scored, 14 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLondrina or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Londrina's home edge and Ponte Preta's poor first-half defensive record give Londrina a slight edge to lead at the break, but both teams' low first-half scoring makes this uncertain.
- Londrina leading at half time in 13% of matches, trailing in 40%
- Ponte Preta leading at half time in 13% of matches, trailing in 60%
- Ponte Preta first half goals conceded: 1.1 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLondrinaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's second-half defensive vulnerability and Londrina's home advantage make Londrina the likely second-half winner.
- Ponte Preta second half goals conceded: 1.2 per game
- Londrina second half goals scored: 0.7 per game
- Ponte Preta away second half collapses: 33 goals conceded in 13 away matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonLondrinaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Londrina leading at half time and full time is plausible given Ponte Preta's away struggles, but Londrina's low first-half lead rate reduces confidence.
- Londrina home win rate: 23% (3/13)
- Ponte Preta away loss rate: 92% (12/13)
- Londrina leading at half time in 13% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonLondrina/LondrinaEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Londrina winning both halves is possible but unlikely given their modest first-half performance.
- Londrina home wins: 3 in 13
- Ponte Preta away losses: 12 in 13
- Londrina first half win rate: 13%
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonLondrinaEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's poor first-half record makes Londrina or draw the likely first-half double chance.
- Ponte Preta first half trailing rate: 60%
- Londrina first half leading rate: 13%, drawing rate: 47%
- Ponte Preta first half goals conceded: 1.1 per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonLondrina or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's away games have seen over 2.5 goals in 9 of 13 matches, and Londrina's home games are moderately high-scoring, supporting an over 2.5 lean.
- Londrina home matches average 2.46 total goals (16 for, 16 against in 13)
- Ponte Preta away matches average 3.08 total goals (7 for, 33 against in 13)
- Last H2H: Londrina 4-1 Ponte Preta (5 goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's severe scoring drought, especially away, makes it unlikely both teams will score.
- Ponte Preta failed to score in 12 of 13 away matches this season
- Ponte Preta last 5 matches: 0 goals scored
- Londrina kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's away scoring impotence gives Londrina a solid chance of a home clean sheet.
- Ponte Preta away goals scored: 7 in 13 matches (0.54 per game)
- Ponte Preta failed to score in 12 of 13 away matches
- Londrina home clean sheets: 5 in 13 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPonte Preta not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Londrina first half goals per game: 0.6, first half goals conceded: 0.8
- Ponte Preta first half goals per game: 0.3, first half goals conceded: 1.1
- Combined first half average: 1.4 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's defensive frailty tends to worsen after halftime, and Londrina's scoring is slightly higher in the second half, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Londrina second half goals per game: 0.7 (1.3 total - 0.6 first half)
- Ponte Preta second half goals conceded per game: 1.2 (2.3 total - 1.1 first half)
- Ponte Preta away matches average 3.08 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's first-half scoring drought makes both teams scoring in the first half unlikely.
- Londrina first half goals per game: 0.6, conceded: 0.8
- Ponte Preta first half goals per game: 0.3, conceded: 1.1
- Ponte Preta failed to score in first half in 12 of 15 recent matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance75%

Match stats7 of 12 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average over 10 corners, but Ponte Preta's low corner count adds uncertainty.
- Londrina average corners per game: 5.3, opponent corners: 5.5
- Ponte Preta average corners per game: 3.5, opponent corners: 6.1
- Combined average corners: 10.8
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina averages over 5 corners per game and Ponte Preta concedes over 6 corners per game, supporting over 4.5 home corners.
- Londrina average corners per game: 5.3
- Londrina home corners in recent matches: 8,7,5,1,7,3,8,5,7,8,7,2,0,2,9
- Ponte Preta opponent corners per game: 6.1
BetBugs · Home CornerswonLondrina over 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's low corner count, especially away, makes under 4.5 away corners likely.
- Ponte Preta average corners per game: 3.5
- Ponte Preta away corners in recent matches: 3,2,2,6,4,2,1,6,5,1,4,5,4,2
- Londrina opponent corners per game: 5.5
BetBugs · Away CornerswonPonte Preta under 4.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average 25 shots, but Ponte Preta's low shot output adds uncertainty.
- Londrina average shots per game: 15.1, opponent shots: 14.3
- Ponte Preta average shots per game: 9.9, opponent shots: 18.5
- Combined average shots: 25.0
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target average is near 8.5, making over 8.5 a close call.
- Londrina average shots on target per game: 4.1, opponent: 4.3
- Ponte Preta average shots on target per game: 2.7, opponent: 6.1
- Combined average shots on target: 8.4
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina consistently produces over 12 shots at home, and Ponte Preta allows many shots.
- Londrina average shots per game: 15.1
- Londrina home shots in recent matches: 21,22,7,17,15,21,16,22,11,12,16,7,16,16
- Ponte Preta opponent shots per game: 18.5
BetBugs · Home Shots TotalwonLondrina over 12.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's shot output is low, especially away, making under 10.5 shots likely.
- Ponte Preta average shots per game: 9.9
- Ponte Preta away shots in recent matches: 12,11,7,12,4,7,13,11,14,11,11,9,8,6
- Londrina opponent shots per game: 14.3
BetBugs · Away Shots TotallostPonte Preta under 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's home shots on target often exceed 4.5, and Ponte Preta concedes many shots on target.
- Londrina average shots on target per game: 4.1
- Londrina home shots on target in recent matches: 7,5,2,4,4,3,4,5,4,2,8,3,2,6
- Ponte Preta opponent shots on target per game: 6.1
BetBugs · Home Shots on Target TotalwonLondrina over 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's shots on target are consistently low, especially away, making under 3.5 likely.
- Ponte Preta average shots on target per game: 2.7
- Ponte Preta away shots on target in recent matches: 2,1,2,2,2,6,1,6,5,4,4,3,2,0,1
- Londrina opponent shots on target per game: 4.3
BetBugs · Away Shots on Target TotallostPonte Preta under 3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 yellow cards combined, making over 4.5 cards a slight lean.
- Londrina average yellow cards per game: 2.2, opponent: 2.3
- Ponte Preta average yellow cards per game: 2.7, opponent: 2.1
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.9
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Londrina's home card count is variable, making over 2.5 a coin flip.
- Londrina average yellow cards per game: 2.2
- Londrina home yellow cards in recent matches: 2,5,1,2,1,1,3,1,1,2,3,3,5,1,2
- Ponte Preta opponent yellow cards per game: 2.1
BetBugs · Home Cards Over/UnderlostLondrina over 2.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's away card count often exceeds 2.5, but variance is high.
- Ponte Preta average yellow cards per game: 2.7
- Ponte Preta away yellow cards in recent matches: 2,3,1,1,3,3,5,4,6,1,4,3,1,1,3
- Londrina opponent yellow cards per game: 2.3
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/UnderlostPonte Preta over 2.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 78% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Londrina has struggled to fulfil Over 4.5 cards projections

Londrina has fulfilled 1 of 6 Over 4.5 cards predictions, with an average estimated probability of 62.5% and an expected 3.8 fulfilled. The current prediction of 55% sits below the historical range of 60–65%, and all four home matches have missed, suggesting recent home games have produced fewer cards than projected.

Recent evidence for Londrina6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Serie B