Londrina0Juventude0

HT 0–0Tue 1 Sept 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 17:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Juventude are likely to win or draw, but the best value is in under 9.5 corners (+15.6 points edge) and under 0.5 first-half goals (+11.5 points).

Avoid over 0.5 first-half goals and over 9.5 corners, as the market heavily overprices those outcomes.

Context

Londrina are 18th in Serie B with 21 points from 24 matches, seven points behind the safety line.
Their recent form is poor: they lost to Ceara 2-1 on 22 August, drew 0-0 with Atletico Goianiense on 18 August, and lost to Sport Recife 2-1 on 14 August. This run has left them in the relegation zone, and facing the league leaders at home adds pressure to get a result. However, their home record is slightly better than their away form, with three wins and four draws in 11 home matches.
- Londrina are 18th with 21 points, seven points from safety.
- They have lost four of their last five matches (LDLLL).
- Recent losses: 2-1 at Ceara on 22 August, 2-1 at Sport Recife on 14 August, 1-0 at Goias on 10 August.
Juventude are first in Serie B with 45 points from 24 matches, one point ahead of second-placed Vila Nova.
They have won four of their last five league games, including a 2-1 home win over CRB on 25 August and a 1-0 away win at Goias on 19 August. Their away record is solid with four wins, three draws, and four losses in 11 matches. This form and position give them confidence, but they have conceded in some away games, so Londrina may find chances.
- Juventude are 1st with 45 points, one point clear at the top.
- They have won four of their last five league matches (WWDWW).
- Recent wins: 2-1 vs CRB on 25 August, 1-0 at Goias on 19 August, 1-0 at Novorizontino on 9 August.
Juventude's away record shows four wins, three draws, and four losses, with nine goals scored and 11 conceded.
Their defensive record away is strong, conceding exactly one goal per game on average. This suggests Londrina, who have scored 15 goals in 11 home matches, may struggle to break them down. However, Juventude have kept only three clean sheets away from home, so Londrina could still find the net.
- Juventude have conceded 11 goals in 11 away matches.
- They have kept three clean sheets away from home.
- Londrina have scored 15 goals in 11 home matches.
Juventude attacker Allanzinho has not started any of the team's last five fixtures with available lineups.
His confirmed ACL rupture rules him out for the season, narrowing Juventude's attacking and wide-selection options. The club expects at least six months out, so this absence is a fixed constraint rather than a short-term doubt.
- Juventude confirmed that Allanzinho ruptured the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee during training.
- The club said he would be unavailable for the rest of the 2026 season and expected him to be out for at least six months.
- Allanzinho started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 17:33 · Europe/Bucharestge: Allanzinho injury confirmedge.globo.com · 28 Jul 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's superior league position, recent form, and head-to-head edge outweigh Londrina's home advantage, making an away win the most likely single outcome.
- Juventude rank 1st with 45 points; Londrina rank 18th with 21 points.
- Juventude away record: 4W 3D 4L, goals 9:11; Londrina home record: 3W 4D 4L, goals 15:14.
- Juventude last 5 league form: WWDWW; Londrina last 5 league form: LDLLL.
- H2H last 5: Juventude 2W, Londrina 1W, 2D.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJuventudeEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's strong overall record and Londrina's poor home win rate make a Juventude win or draw highly likely.
- Juventude have lost only 5 of 24 league matches; Londrina have lost 13 of 24.
- Juventude away losses: 4 in 11; Londrina home wins: only 3 in 11.
- H2H: Juventude unbeaten in 4 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or JuventudeEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring and high draw rates at halftime, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Londrina led at halftime in only 13% of matches; Juventude led in 27%.
- Juventude's last 6 league matches: 5 draws at halftime.
- Londrina's last 5 matches: 3 draws at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Juventude win is a plausible pattern given Juventude's second-half strength and Londrina's tendency to fade.
- Juventude often draw at halftime but win full time (e.g., 2 of last 5 league wins).
- Londrina have lost 13 of 24 matches, often after being level at halftime.
- Juventude's second-half scoring rate is higher than first-half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/JuventudeEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's strong defense and moderate attack, combined with Londrina's inconsistent scoring, point to a low-scoring contest.
- Juventude average 1.1 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match.
- Londrina average 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match.
- Juventude away matches average 1.82 total goals; Londrina home matches average 2.64 total goals.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's defensive solidity and Londrina's recent scoring struggles make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Juventude have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- Londrina failed to score in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Juventude concede only 0.5 goals per game on average.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juventude's excellent defensive record gives them a solid chance of shutting out a struggling Londrina attack.
- Juventude have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- Londrina have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Juventude average only 0.5 goals conceded per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLondrina not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, especially Juventude's strong first-half defense, making a goalless first half likely.
- Londrina average 0.5 first-half goals; Juventude average 0.4 first-half goals.
- Juventude concede only 0.3 first-half goals per game.
- In 5 of Juventude's last 6 league matches, the first half ended 0-0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are more likely to score after halftime, making at least one second-half goal probable.
- Londrina average 1.1 goals per game, with most goals coming after halftime.
- Juventude average 1.1 goals per game, often scoring in the second half.
- Combined second-half scoring rate exceeds 60% in recent matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate moderate corner counts, and the combined average is below the 9.5 line.
- Londrina average 4.5 corners per match; Juventude average 4.3 corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 8.8 per match.
- Juventude away matches average 8.2 total corners; Londrina home matches average 9.0 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is below the line, and Juventude's defensive style should suppress Londrina's shooting.
- Londrina average 3.8 shots on target per match; Juventude average 4.5.
- Combined average shots on target: 8.3 per match.
- Juventude's strong defense limits opponent shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and the combined average slightly exceeds the line.
- Londrina average 2.4 yellow cards per match; Juventude average 2.3.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.7 per match.
- Londrina's recent matches have seen 5+ cards in 3 of last 5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 51% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; the edge is too thin and the market is efficient on this outcome.

Prediction history

Juventude has been highly reliable when projected to win

Juventude has fulfilled 5 of 7 win predictions, a 71% success rate. The average estimated probability was 48.9%, with an expected 3.4 fulfilled predictions, so they outperformed expectation. All five fulfilled predictions came at home, while both away predictions missed.

Recent evidence for Juventude7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Serie B