Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Avai1Cuiaba MT0

HT 1–0Sun 21 Jun 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Jun 2026, 17:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Cuiaba or draw on the double chance at 1.53—a 7-point edge over our 72% estimate—as Avai's five-game losing streak, coach pressure, and off-field debt crisis clash with Cuiaba's unbeaten run and defensive solidity.

For higher risk, Cuiaba to win at 3.10 offers a 10-point edge, while first-half under 0.5 goals at 2.30 (11.5-point edge) and over 4.5 cards at 1.83 (7.4-point edge) provide alternative value.

Context

Avai have lost their last 5 Serie B matches, conceding 2+ goals in 4 of those.
- On 16 Jun, ge reported the Londrina loss left Cauan de Almeida under threat, raising volatility around team mood.
- Avai sit 18th with 10 points from 13 games, deep in the relegation zone.
On 16 Jun, ge reported an internal debt-analysis commission found liabilities near R$290m.
- The report highlighted bankruptcy and transfer-ban risk, adding off-field strain.
- Such financial instability often distracts players and staff, especially during a poor run.
Cuiaba have conceded only 6 goals in 13 Serie B games, the best defensive record in the league.
- They have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Away from home, they have conceded only 2 goals in 6 games.
On 17 Jun, ge noted Eduardo Barros' side gained balance from a returning centre-back and clearer role definition.
- Cuiaba are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W3 D2), with 3 clean sheets.
- The team has lost only twice all season, showing consistent organization.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 8

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Avai's form is dire (5 straight league losses) and off-field pressure is high, while Cuiaba are defensively solid and tactically stabilizing under Eduardo Barros, giving them a clear edge despite being away.
- Avai have lost their last 5 Serie B matches, conceding 2+ goals in 4 of those.
- Cuiaba MT are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W3 D2), keeping 3 clean sheets.
- Avai sit 18th with 10 points from 13 games; Cuiaba are 10th with 19 points and only 2 losses all season.
- H2H last 5: Avai 1 win, Cuiaba 2 wins, 2 draws; Avai's only win was at home in 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCuiaba MTEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Avai's relegation form and home struggles make a home win unlikely, while Cuiaba's strong away record and low loss rate support a double chance covering draw or away win.
- Avai have won only 1 of their last 7 home league games (D3 L3).
- Cuiaba MT have lost only 1 of 6 away league games this season (W2 D3).
- Avai's last 5 league matches: 5 losses; Cuiaba's last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws.
- H2H: Avai have only 1 win in the last 6 meetings across all competitions.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Cuiaba MTEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's pattern of first-half draws is strong, and Avai's inconsistent starts make a level halftime score the most likely outcome.
- Avai have been drawing at halftime in 2 of their last 5 league games.
- Cuiaba MT have been drawing at halftime in 4 of their last 5 league games.
- Avai's first-half record: 27% leading, 27% trailing, 46% drawing.
- Cuiaba's first-half record: 13% leading, 13% trailing, 74% drawing.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's superior fitness and tactical discipline could see them edge the second half, but Avai's home urgency adds uncertainty, warranting low confidence.
- Cuiaba MT have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 league games.
- Avai have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 league games.
- Cuiaba's away second-half record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss.
- Avai's home second-half record: 1 win, 3 draws, 3 losses.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableCuiaba MTEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Cuiaba win is a plausible sequence given Cuiaba's second-half strength and Avai's fragility, but the specific combination is low probability.
- Cuiaba MT have been drawing at halftime in 74% of games this season.
- Cuiaba have won 4 of 13 games overall, with 2 wins coming after a drawn first half.
- Avai have lost 7 of 13 games, with 3 losses coming after a drawn first half.
- H2H: In the last meeting, Avai led at halftime but Cuiaba drew 2-2.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Cuiaba MTEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's matches are consistently low-scoring due to their strong defense, and Avai's attack is unreliable, making under 2.5 goals likely.
- Cuiaba MT's 13 league games have averaged only 1.15 total goals (9 scored, 6 conceded).
- Avai's home league games average 2.29 total goals, but they have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 home games.
- Cuiaba have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Avai's last 5 league games: 1.2 goals scored per game, 2.2 conceded, but Cuiaba's defense is much tighter.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's defensive solidity, especially away from home, combined with Avai's scoring struggles under pressure, points to at least one team failing to score.
- Cuiaba MT have kept clean sheets in 7 of 13 league games this season.
- Avai have failed to score in 3 of their last 7 home league games.
- Cuiaba have conceded only 2 goals in 6 away league games.
- Avai's last 5 league games: scored in 3, but against weaker defenses than Cuiaba's.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's defensive record suggests a clean sheet is possible, but Avai's desperation at home could lead to a goal, keeping confidence low.
- Cuiaba MT have kept clean sheets in 3 of their 6 away league games.
- Avai have failed to score in 3 of their 7 home league games.
- Cuiaba's last 5 league games: 3 clean sheets.
- Avai's last 5 league games: failed to score twice.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAvai not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and Cuiaba's tendency for cagey starts away from home makes a goalless first half probable.
- Avai average 0.7 first-half goals per game overall, but only 0.4 in their last 5 league games.
- Cuiaba MT average 0.4 first-half goals per game overall, with 0.2 in away games.
- Cuiaba have been drawing at halftime in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Avai have trailed at halftime in 3 of their last 5 league games, but scored only 1 first-half goal in that span.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams see the majority of their goals after the break, and with Avai likely pushing for a result, the second half should produce at least one goal.
- Avai's last 5 league games: 8 of 11 total goals came in the second half.
- Cuiaba MT's last 5 league games: 4 of 5 total goals came in the second half.
- Avai concede 1.4 goals per game on average, with most coming after halftime.
- Cuiaba score 0.7 goals per game, but 0.5 of those come in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance75%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low corner counts, and the match is likely to be tight and low-scoring, reducing corner opportunities, making under 9.5 corners probable.
- Avai average 2.5 corners per game overall, with 2.1 at home.
- Cuiaba MT average 3.8 corners per game overall, with 3.3 away.
- Combined average corners in Avai's home games: 7.4; in Cuiaba's away games: 7.3.
- Avai's last 5 league games: average 2.2 corners for, 5.8 against, total 8.0.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Avai's disciplinary issues and the high-stakes nature of the match for both teams should lead to a card count above 4.5.
- Avai average 2.6 yellow cards per game, with 2.9 at home.
- Cuiaba MT average 2.1 yellow cards per game, with 2.3 away.
- Combined average cards in Avai's home games: 5.2; in Cuiaba's away games: 4.5.
- Avai's last 5 league games: 3.0 yellow cards per game; Cuiaba's: 1.8, but with high foul counts.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Avai's desperation and physical style at home make it likely they will accumulate over 2.5 cards.
- Avai average 2.6 yellow cards per game overall, with 2.9 at home.
- Avai have received 3+ cards in 3 of their last 5 league games.
- Avai's home games average 2.9 yellow cards for the home side.
- Avai's fouls per game: 13.1, indicating aggressive play.
BetBugs · Home Cards Over/Undernot gradableAvai over 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest shot accuracy, and Cuiaba's defensive setup limits opponent chances, keeping total shots on target under 8.5.
- Avai average 2.9 shots on target per game overall, with 3.1 at home.
- Cuiaba MT average 4.2 shots on target per game overall, with 3.8 away.
- Combined average shots on target in Avai's home games: 6.9; in Cuiaba's away games: 7.1.
- Avai's last 5 league games: 3.0 shots on target per game; Cuiaba's: 4.6, but against weaker defenses.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

W2-0AvaivCuiabaAug 10, 2025SER

D2-2CuiabavAvaiApr 11, 2025SER

L1-0CuiabavAvaiOct 27, 2022SA

L1-2AvaivCuiabaJul 3, 2022SA

L2-1CuiabavAvaiNov 28, 2020SER

2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Avai Relegation	13	2	4	7	14-20	10	LLLLL
10	Cuiaba MT	13	4	7	2	9-6	19	WWWLD

9pt gap between teamsAvai in relegation zone

Recent Form

Avai

L2-3LondrinaJun 16SER

L1-2CearaJun 10SER

W3-0Chapecoense-scJun 3COP

L1-2CriciumaMay 30SER

W3-0Volta RedondaMay 27COP

L0-2GoiasMay 24SER

D2-2Volta RedondaMay 20COP

L0-2Vila NovaMay 17SER

D0-0Fortaleza ECMay 10SER

W2-0Sampaio Corrêa RJMay 7COP

D3-3NovorizontinoMay 3SER

W2-1NovorizontinoApr 30COP

L1-2Atletico GoianienseApr 26SER

L1-2Ponte PretaApr 18SER

W1-0CaxiasApr 16COP

Cuiaba MT

W1-0Vila NovaJun 14SER

W2-1Ponte PretaJun 9SER

W2-0CRBMay 31SER

L0-1Nautico RecifeMay 22SER

D0-0NovorizontinoMay 16SER

D0-0Athletic ClubMay 9SER

D1-1CriciumaMay 2SER

L0-4AnápolisApr 29COP

D1-1Botafogo SPApr 23SER

W2-0GoiasApr 19SER

L2-3Porto VitóriaApr 15COP

D0-0Operario-PRApr 12SER

L0-1Atletico GoianienseApr 7COP

L0-2CearaApr 4SER

D0-0Fortaleza ECMar 31SER

Squad & Injuries

Avai

53 available

Attackers11

Midfielders16

Defenders20

Goalkeeper6

Cuiaba MT

35 available

Attackers9

Midfielders12

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Cuiaba MT

Cuiaba MT

Under 0.5

Over 0.5

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Avai over 2.5

Under 8.5

Under 2.5

No

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Avai

Cuiaba MT

Squad & Injuries

Avai

Cuiaba MT