Corinthians2Mirassol0

HT 0–0Fri 30 Oct 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 33–1On targetOn target 7–0CornersCorners 3–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 03:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Corinthians, 18th and winless in ten league games, host a Mirassol side with only two away wins all season, and all five recent meetings stayed under four goals, so a home win is no given.

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.38, Corinthians to score under 1.5 goals at 1.78 and over 3.5 cards at 1.36 hold up; Mirassol to score under 1.5 goals at 1.25 and Corinthians to at least draw the corner count at 1.29 do not.

Context

The supplied account places Corinthians 18th after the sequence extended to ten league matches without a win. That makes the home meeting with Mirassol immediately relevant to their relegation position. The evidence does not identify a tactical change or a new selection plan connected with the run.
- Corinthians were 18th in the Serie A table ahead of this fixture.
- Their league winless sequence reached ten after a late defeat to Vasco da Gama in Clarence Seedorf's touchline debut.
ReportedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 03:05 · Europe/BucharestGoalwww.goal.com · 29 Oct 2026
The availability update groups absences across Corinthians' attack, midfield and defence, including Depay's right-thigh oedema and Lingard's suspension. It reduces the pool available for the Mirassol fixture. The supplied evidence does not name replacements or establish a probable starting XI.
- Memphis Depay is sidelined with oedema in his right thigh.
- Jesse Lingard is suspended while managing fractured ribs.
- Raniele, Gabriel Paulista, Zakaria Labyad and Kayke are unavailable through injury or surgery.
ReportedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 03:05 · Europe/BucharestGoalwww.goal.com · 29 Oct 2026
Corinthians took three of the five, with Mirassol winning the most recent meeting 2-1 in May 2026.
The scores ran 3-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 2-1 across those five meetings, with Corinthians winning three. Two of the five came in the Paulista - A1 rather than Serie A, so the run spans competitions and different squads. It supports a low-scoring expectation without predicting a repeat.
- All five listed meetings between 19 February 2023 and 3 May 2026 finished under 3.5 goals: 3-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 2-1.
- The home team won each of the five, most recently Mirassol 2-1 Corinthians on 3 May 2026.
- Three of the five were Serie A fixtures and two were Paulista - A1 matches.
The home first half has been almost scoreless for Corinthians in the tracked sample.
They also conceded 0.71 first-half goals per home match in that span, so the opening period has tended to be quiet at both ends rather than one-sided. Only five goals in total arrived across those seven home games, which brought one win, one draw and five defeats. The sample is small and the current absentee list changes the attacking personnel, so it is a lean rather than a settled pattern.
- Corinthians averaged 0.14 first-half goals across their seven tracked home matches from 16 August to 19 October 2026.
- They conceded 0.71 first-half goals per home match over the same seven games.
- Those seven home matches produced one win, one draw and five defeats, with five goals scored and six conceded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Corinthians' long winless run and injury list make a non-win outcome more likely than a home victory.
- Corinthians are 18th and without a win in ten league matches.
- Corinthians have several confirmed absentees, including Depay and Lingard.
- Mirassol sit 15th and have lost only once in their last five.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or MirassolEstimated chance60%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both sides have low-scoring season profiles and the recent head-to-heads have stayed below four goals.
- Corinthians average 0.93 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match.
- Mirassol average 1.07 scored and 1.43 conceded per match.
- All five recent head-to-head meetings finished under 3.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both teams have produced very little before half-time, and Corinthians' home first-half scoring is especially low.
- Corinthians average 0.07 first-half goals scored and 0.73 conceded.
- Mirassol average 0.29 first-half goals away and 0.71 conceded away.
- Corinthians' home first-half scoring average is 0.14.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Corinthians' scoring is already thin, and the absences remove further attacking options.
- Corinthians average 0.71 home goals and 0.93 overall.
- They have scored five goals in seven home matches in the sample.
- Depay, Lingard, Raniele and Gabriel Paulista are among the absentees.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCorinthians under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Mirassol have struggled to score on the road and rarely reach two away goals.
- Mirassol average 0.71 away goals and 1.07 overall.
- They have scored four goals in seven away matches in the sample.
- Corinthians concede 1.43 goals per home match, but Mirassol's away output is low.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonMirassol under 1.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Both teams pick up cards at a steady rate and recent Corinthians games have been busy.
- Corinthians average 2.47 yellow cards per match.
- Mirassol average 2.69 yellow cards per match.
- Corinthians' last six include matches with 3, 4 and 5 yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Corinthians generate more corners at home while Mirassol produce little on the road.
- Corinthians average 6.0 corners at home.
- Mirassol average 3.86 corners away.
- Mirassol concede 6.57 corners per away match.
BetBugs · Corners Double ChancewonCorinthians or Draw on cornersEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Mirassol's away corner output is modest and Corinthians allow few at home.
- Mirassol average 3.86 corners away.
- Corinthians concede 3.57 corners at home.
- Mirassol average 4.86 corners overall.
BetBugs · Away CornerswonMirassol under 4.5Estimated chance62%