Mirassol1Sao Paulo1

HT 1–1Sat 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 18–14On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 7–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 14:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Round 32 pits Mirassol's strong home record against São Paulo's poor away run: Mirassol are the likelier winners, though a tight, low-scoring game is the more likely shape.

Both teams to score – no at 1.91, a level first half at 2.15 and under 2.5 goals at 1.75 are the prices with potential value. Mirassol to win at 2.30 offers no clear price advantage.

Context

Seven rounds remain after this fixture, and the two clubs arrive with different targets: Mirassol are 14th on 36 points after beating Internacional, close enough to the bottom four that home points still matter, while São Paulo's 42 points and two straight wins have shifted the talk from survival to a Libertadores place. That divergence shapes intent at the Maião, where Mirassol have lost once in six and São Paulo have not won in the league away from home since March. São Paulo's remaining road trips include Bahia and Atlético-MG, which makes this the more winnable of their away games on paper.
- Mirassol moved to 36 points and 14th place by beating Internacional 2-0 in round 31.
- São Paulo reached 42 points with a 1-0 home win over Vasco on 17 October.
- Internacional stayed 17th on 32 points after losing at the Maião.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:38 · Europe/Bucharest
The January meeting at the Maião finished 3-0 to Mirassol, and São Paulo's away league record since mid-March reads two points from 36 with ten defeats, including losses at Remo and Chapecoense. Dorival Júnior has not changed the pattern, with one draw and five defeats in six away league matches. Mirassol's home form supplies the counterweight: one defeat in their last six at the ground, to Flamengo. The away sample spans two coaching regimes and several matches before Dorival's appointment, so it describes a persistent condition rather than one tactical flaw — though it is also the clearest reason to expect a cautious São Paulo.
- Mirassol beat São Paulo 3-0 at the José Maria de Campos Maia in January.
- São Paulo's last Série A away win came on 15 March, against Bragantino.
- Since then: two draws, ten defeats and two points from 36 in 12 away league matches.
- Under Dorival Júnior the away record is one draw and five defeats in six league games.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Moura's comeback has been staged in short bursts: a second-half appearance against Vitória, then half-time against Vasco, after which São Paulo scored the only goal. A first start would put that ball-carrying threat into the opening hour of a match São Paulo have repeatedly struggled to control away from home, rather than using it as a response to stalling. His conditioning is still being managed after five months out, so a start would carry a planned limit on minutes, and a contract expiring in December 2026 gives the club another reason to protect him. Whether he starts or again waits until the interval is the main selection question on the visiting side.
- Lucas Moura returned to play on 10 October against Vitória after five months out with a complete rupture of the Achilles tendon.
- He came on at half-time against Vasco on 17 October, after which São Paulo found the winning goal through Artur.
- He is under consideration to start at Mirassol, with his contract running to December 2026.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:38 · Europe/Bucharest
André Luís has been Mirassol's impact forward: he entered and shifted the draw at Bragantino on 7 October, then came on to score the 87th-minute goal that finished Internacional. Losing him removes the option Rafael Guanaes has used to change matches from the bench, in a fixture where Mirassol will need at least one goal at home. He was a substitute in both of those games, so the starting line-up may be unaffected; the cost is attacking depth and a late-game threat, with Eduardo now carrying a larger share of the scoring.
- André Luís is suspended for the São Paulo match after accumulating yellow cards.
- He scored Mirassol's second goal in the 87th minute of the 2-0 win over Internacional on 16 October.
- He had come on and changed the game in Mirassol's draw at Bragantino on 7 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 14:38 · Europe/BucharestMatch page listing André Luís as suspendedwww.flashscore.com.br · 23 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Mirassol's strong home record and Sao Paulo's poor away form give the home side the clearer route to victory.
- Mirassol are 7W-5D-4L at home in Serie A this season.
- Sao Paulo are 2W-3D-10L away, with 11 goals in 15 away league games.
- Mirassol beat Sao Paulo 3-0 at this ground in January.
- Mirassol are without suspended forward Andre Luis.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMirassolEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are low, which keeps the half-time score level as the central outcome.
- Mirassol's 14 tracked matches average 1.0 first-half goal.
- Sao Paulo's 15 tracked matches average 0.93 first-half goal.
- Mirassol home first-half goals for and against are 0.57 and 0.43.
- Sao Paulo away first-half goals for and against are 0.33 and 0.50.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's strong home record and Sao Paulo's poor away form give the home side the clearer route to victory. Mirassol's draw habit and Sao Paulo's low away scoring keep a share of the points in view.
- Mirassol are 7W-5D-4L at home in Serie A this season.
- Sao Paulo are 2W-3D-10L away, with 11 goals in 15 away league games.
- Mirassol have drawn six of 14 tracked matches.
- Sao Paulo have drawn three of 15 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMirassol or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's modest home first-half edge and Sao Paulo's low away first-half output give the home side the better half-time lead case. Both teams' first-half scoring rates are low, which keeps the half-time score level as the central outcome.
- Mirassol average 0.57 first-half goals at home and concede 0.43.
- Sao Paulo average 0.33 first-half goals away and concede 0.50.
- Mirassol's 14 tracked matches average 1.0 first-half goal.
- Sao Paulo's 15 tracked matches average 0.93 first-half goal.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonMirassol or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Low scoring averages for both sides and Sao Paulo's weak away output make a match below three goals the stronger case.
- Mirassol average 1.07 goals for and 1.43 against in 14 tracked matches.
- Sao Paulo average 1.07 goals for and 1.07 against in 15 tracked matches.
- Sao Paulo have scored two goals in six tracked away matches.
- Mirassol kept two clean sheets in seven home tracked matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Sao Paulo's away scoring shortage makes a clean sheet for Mirassol the more supported route.
- Sao Paulo have scored two goals in six tracked away matches.
- Mirassol kept two clean sheets in seven home tracked matches.
- Sao Paulo have scored more than one goal in only one of their last six completed matches.
- Mirassol have scored in 11 of 14 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both teams' first-half goal averages sit near one per match, giving more than 0.5 first-half goals a slight lean.
- Mirassol's 14 tracked matches average 1.0 first-half goal.
- Sao Paulo's 15 tracked matches average 0.93 first-half goal.
- Mirassol home first-half total averages 1.0.
- Sao Paulo away first-half total averages 0.83.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sao Paulo's away scoring has been so limited that holding them to one goal or fewer is the stronger case.
- Sao Paulo have scored 11 goals in 15 away league games.
- In the tracked away split they scored two goals in six matches.
- Sao Paulo have scored more than one goal in only one of their last six completed matches.
- Mirassol kept two clean sheets in seven home tracked matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSao Paulo under 1.5Estimated chance80%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's high home shot volume and Sao Paulo's away shot allowance point to more than 28.5 total shots.
- Mirassol average 16.4 shots at home and allow 12.6.
- Sao Paulo average 14.3 shots away and allow 16.7.
- Mirassol's last six matches averaged 33.2 total shots.
- Sao Paulo's last six matches averaged 27.8 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 28.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's home shot-on-target rate and Sao Paulo's recent totals point to more than 8.5 shots on target.
- Mirassol average 5.0 shots on target at home.
- Sao Paulo average 3.3 shots on target away.
- Mirassol's last six matches averaged 10.5 total shots on target.
- Sao Paulo's last six matches averaged 7.3 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%