Coritiba1Mirassol2

HT 0–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 17–20On targetOn target 6–7CornersCorners 5–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 18:34 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value lies in goals markets: Over 2.5 goals (+7-point edge) and Both Teams to Score 'Yes' (+6-point edge).

Avoid first-half goals over 0.5 due to poor odds, and note Coritiba's defensive absences and Mirassol's travel fatigue as key risk factors.

Context

Mirassol sits 16th in Serie A with 25 points, just above the relegation zone.
Their away record is poor: 1 win, 3 draws, and 7 losses in 11 matches, with 10 goals scored and 18 conceded. This suggests they often struggle to control games on the road. Coritiba's home form is mixed, but Mirassol's away weakness could give the hosts an edge.
- Mirassol's away record: 1 win, 3 draws, 7 losses in 11 matches.
- They have scored 10 goals and conceded 18 away from home.
Coritiba defender Tiago Cóser, who started all five recent fixtures with available lineups, is suspended after a third yellow card at Remo.
His enforced absence removes a regular starter from central defence, forcing Coritiba to adjust their back line for Mirassol. The report does not specify a replacement, so the exact defensive setup remains uncertain.
- Rádio Itatiaia reported that Tiago Cóser received his third yellow card in Coritiba’s 31 August win at Remo.
- The report states that he is suspended for Coritiba’s next Série A match against Mirassol.
- Tiago Cóser started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 18:33 · Europe/BucharestRádio Itatiaiawww.itatiaia.com.br · 1 Sep 2026
Coritiba is 9th in Serie A with 34 points, pushing for a Copa Sudamericana spot.
In their last four home league games, Coritiba beat Corinthians 2-1, Chapecoense-sc 2-1, and Bahia 3-2, while losing 0-1 to Cruzeiro. This run suggests they are comfortable at home and can score goals. Mirassol's poor away form could make this a favorable matchup for Coritiba.
- Coritiba beat Corinthians 2-1 at home on 2026-08-23.
- Coritiba beat Chapecoense-sc 2-1 at home on 2026-08-08.
- Coritiba beat Bahia 3-2 at home on 2026-05-25.
Coritiba defender Jacy, also a regular starter in recent lineups, left the Remo match with a right-foot sprain and is doubtful.
His unresolved availability adds further uncertainty to Coritiba's defensive selection, potentially requiring another change alongside Cóser's absence. The team may need to rely on less-used options if Jacy cannot recover in time.
- Rádio Itatiaia reported that Jacy left the Remo match with a right-foot sprain.
- The same report describes him as doubtful for the Mirassol match.
- Jacy started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 18:33 · Europe/BucharestRádio Itatiaiawww.itatiaia.com.br · 1 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Coritiba or Draw

1.35fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Coritiba's home form and Mirassol's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely, though the odds offer no positive edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's stronger home form and Mirassol's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by the motivation of chasing a Copa Sudamericana spot.
- Coritiba home record: 5W 3D 4L, 15 goals for, 14 against in 12 home matches.
- Mirassol away record: 1W 3D 7L, 10 goals for, 18 against in 11 away matches.
- Coritiba last 5 form: W D W L D (8 points), Mirassol last 5 form: D D L L W (5 points).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCoritibaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's home advantage and Mirassol's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely, with the double chance covering the draw risk.
- Coritiba home record: 5W 3D 4L, 15 goals for, 14 against in 12 home matches.
- Mirassol away record: 1W 3D 7L, 10 goals for, 18 against in 11 away matches.
- Coritiba last 5 form: W D W L D (8 points), Mirassol last 5 form: D D L L W (5 points).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCoritiba or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into the break level, with Coritiba's high trailing rate and Mirassol's high leading rate balancing out.
- Coritiba leading at half time in 27% of matches, trailing in 47%; Mirassol leading in 47%, trailing in 20%.
- Coritiba first half results: 6 draws, 5 wins, 4 losses; Mirassol: 7 draws, 5 wins, 3 losses.
- Both teams have a high draw rate in the first half.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's home edge and Mirassol's poor away second half record give the hosts a slight edge, but confidence is low.
- Coritiba have won the second half in 5 of their last 15; Mirassol have won the second half in 3 of their last 15.
- Coritiba average second half goals for 0.7, against 0.8; Mirassol average second half goals for 0.3, against 1.1.
- Coritiba's home advantage may boost second half performance.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCoritibaEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Coritiba win is a plausible scenario given their home strength and Mirassol's away fragility.
- Coritiba have drawn at half time and won full time in 3 of their last 15 matches.
- Mirassol have drawn at half time and lost full time in 4 of their last 15 matches.
- Coritiba's home form suggests they can push for a win after a level first half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/CoritibaEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and moderate scoring, with combined averages suggesting a decent chance of at least three goals.
- Coritiba average goals for 1.2, against 1.5; Mirassol average goals for 1.0, against 1.5.
- Coritiba home matches average 2.42 total goals; Mirassol away matches average 2.55 total goals.
- Both teams have scored in 7 of Coritiba's last 15 and 8 of Mirassol's last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net and concede, making both teams scoring a likely outcome.
- Coritiba have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches; Mirassol have scored in 9 of their last 15.
- Coritiba have conceded in 11 of their last 15; Mirassol have conceded in 12 of their last 15.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Coritiba's last 15 and 8 of Mirassol's last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, with a combined average above one goal, making over 0.5 first half goals likely.
- Coritiba average first half goals for 0.5, against 0.7; Mirassol average first half goals for 0.7, against 0.4.
- Coritiba have scored in the first half in 6 of their last 15; Mirassol in 8 of their last 15.
- Combined first half goal average is 1.15 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring is moderate, with a combined average near 1.5, but the probability is not high enough for strong confidence.
- Coritiba average second half goals for 0.7, against 0.8; Mirassol average second half goals for 0.3, against 1.1.
- Combined second half goal average is 1.45 per match.
- Both teams have scored in the second half in 5 of their last 15 matches each.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner average is just above 8.5, making this a coin flip, but the stats support a slight lean to over.
- Coritiba average corners for 3.7, against 5.3; Mirassol average corners for 3.9, against 4.9.
- Combined average corners per match is 8.9.
- Both teams have had over 8.5 corners in 7 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is slightly below 7.5, so the over is not strongly supported.
- Coritiba average shots on target for 3.3, against 4.3; Mirassol average shots on target for 3.4, against 3.9.
- Combined average shots on target per match is 7.4.
- Both teams have had over 7.5 shots on target in 6 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card average is near 3.5, making this a borderline call, but the stats suggest a slight lean to over.
- Coritiba average yellow cards 1.3, red cards 0.8; Mirassol average yellow cards 2.1, red cards 0.5.
- Combined average cards per match is 3.4 yellow cards plus occasional red cards.
- Both teams have had over 3.5 cards in 8 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%