RB Bragantino SP1Mirassol1

HT 0–0Wed 7 Oct 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 71%–29%ShotsShots 33–8On targetOn target 9–2CornersCorners 11–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 23:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Bragantino are the stronger home side but arrive without a league win since 23 August, four days after a rescheduled trip to Atletico-MG, against a Mirassol team that has drawn six of its last 14 and scores in most away games.

A tight, low-scoring night looks likely, with Bragantino likelier to avoid defeat than to win. Seven quoted prices come with an edge, including the draw or Mirassol at 2.00, Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 and a goalless first half at 3.00.

Context

The round-29 card is unusually crowded with meetings between clubs still exposed to the drop, and this is the first of them. Mirassol's cushion above the bottom four is thin, so a defeat in Braganca Paulista would leave them looking over their shoulder, while a Bragantino win would open a gap to the chasing group. The relegation picture behind this comes from a statistical projection rather than the table alone, so it describes risk rather than a settled outcome.
- After round 28, Mirassol sat inside the group of clubs carrying a material relegation risk, with Bragantino listed in the same projection at a much smaller risk.
- The round-29 card contains five fixtures between clubs from that risk group, with Bragantino against Mirassol among them.
ReportedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 23:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Rodriguinho started the recent league match at Flamengo and has been a regular part of Vagner Mancini's midfield, so his absence removes a familiar option rather than a squad filler. Patrick's problem is measured in days, which makes the immediate question how Mancini covers the middle for this one match. Both knee injuries sit in short timeframes, so this reads as a one-fixture hole rather than a lasting loss.
- Rodriguinho is unavailable with a knee problem expected to keep him out for about one to two weeks.
- Patrick is out with a knee problem measured in days, and Davi Gomes is sidelined with a cruciate ligament injury running to mid-December 2026.
ReportedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 23:57 · Europe/BucharestFotMob match pagewww.fotmob.com · 3 Oct 2026
Bragantino's postponed round-21 game now sits between the last completed round and this fixture, so Vagner Mancini has a short turnaround plus a trip back from Belo Horizonte to manage. Mirassol arrive with more than two weeks since their last outing and a full training block behind them. The gap is real but not extreme, since the international window interrupted the calendar for both clubs and four days between matches is ordinary in Brazilian football.
- Bragantino's rescheduled round-21 match away to Atletico-MG is set for 3 October, four days before the fixture against Mirassol.
- Mirassol's most recent match was the round-28 home game against Botafogo on 19 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 23:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Bragantino's last league win came on 23 August, and the four matches since produced defeats to Sao Paulo, Bahia and Flamengo either side of a draw at Botafogo. Mancini has been in charge since October 2025 and has already spoken publicly about officiating decisions going against his team, so the pressure around the side is visible. Winless runs of this length are common in the Brasileirao and the calendar has been congested, which tempers how much weight the streak carries into this match.
- Bragantino's most recent Serie A win came on 23 August 2026; they have since lost to Sao Paulo, Bahia and Flamengo and drawn with Botafogo.
- Vagner Mancini has been Bragantino's head coach since October 2025.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 23:57 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bragantino have the stronger home record and far more attacking volume, while Mirassol have won only twice on the road all season.
- Bragantino home league record 6W-2D-5L, 19 scored and 14 conceded in 13 home games
- Mirassol league away record 2W-3D-8L, 12 scored and 21 conceded in 13
- In this window Bragantino are 3W-1D-3L at home; Mirassol are 1W-2D-3L away
- Bragantino average 20.6 shots and 7.6 corners in their seven home matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRB Bragantino SPEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams score and concede little before the break, making a level first half the most frequent outcome.
- Combined first-half goal averages are 0.86 for Bragantino matches and 1.29 for Mirassol matches
- Bragantino home first half: 0.57 scored, 0.29 conceded
- Mirassol away first half: 0.5 scored, 0.67 conceded
- Recent head-to-head meetings have been level at the break
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bragantino have the stronger home record and far more attacking volume, while Mirassol have won only twice on the road all season. Both sides draw regularly and recent meetings between them have usually been tight and low scoring.
- Bragantino home league record 6W-2D-5L, 19 scored and 14 conceded in 13 home games
- Mirassol league away record 2W-3D-8L, 12 scored and 21 conceded in 13
- Bragantino have drawn 6 of 14 competitive matches in this window
- Mirassol have drawn 6 of 14 in the same window
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRB Bragantino SP or DrawEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bragantino's home first halves are the strongest segment, with more goals scored than conceded. Both teams score and concede little before the break, making a level first half the most frequent outcome.
- Bragantino first-half averages: 0.5 scored, 0.36 conceded per match
- Bragantino home first half: 0.57 scored, 0.29 conceded
- Combined first-half goal averages are 0.86 for Bragantino matches and 1.29 for Mirassol matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonRB Bragantino SP or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both teams average around one goal each and their recent meetings have been low scoring.
- Bragantino home matches in this window: 4 scored and 4 conceded in 7
- Mirassol away matches in this window: 4 scored and 6 conceded in 6
- Head-to-head goals in the last five meetings: 3, 2, 1, 0, 2
- Bragantino average 1.0 goals scored per match across 14 games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Bragantino's home games have frequently featured at least one blank, and their own home scoring is limited.
- Bragantino kept clean sheets in three of seven home matches in this window
- Bragantino scored only 4 goals in 7 home matches
- Mirassol have no away clean sheet in six away matches in this window
- Mirassol failed to score in two of six away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bragantino have rarely scored more than once at home despite a high shot count.
- Bragantino scored 4 goals in seven home matches in this window
- Home goals-for average 1.0 per match
- Bragantino have been held to one goal or fewer in most home matches
- Mirassol conceded 1.0 goals per away match in this window
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonRB Bragantino SP under 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol score in most away games and Bragantino have conceded in nearly every recent match.
- Bragantino kept three clean sheets in seven home matches
- Mirassol scored in four of six away matches in this window
- Mirassol average 1.0 goals per away match
- Bragantino conceded in five of their last six matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMirassol to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol have conceded in every away match in this window.
- Mirassol have no away clean sheet in six matches in this window
- Bragantino scored in most of their home matches in this window
- Bragantino average 5.1 shots on target at home
- Mirassol away goals-against average 1.0 per match in this window
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRB Bragantino SP to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have usually produced at least one goal before half-time.
- Bragantino matches average 0.86 first-half goals (0.5 for, 0.36 against)
- Mirassol matches average 1.29 first-half goals (0.71 for, 0.57 against)
- Bragantino home first halves total 0.86 goals
- Mirassol away first halves total 1.17 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half goal totals have generally stayed around one per match for both sides.
- Bragantino second-half totals average 1.29 goals per match
- Mirassol second-half totals average 1.43 goals per match
- Bragantino home second halves total 1.14 goals
- Mirassol away second halves total 1.17 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol win few corners and keep the combined figure near the line despite Bragantino's home pressure.
- Bragantino home: 7.6 corners, opponents 2.9
- Mirassol away: 4.5 corners, opponents 6.3
- Bragantino overall corners 6.4 for, 4.7 against
- Mirassol overall corners 5.0 for, 4.9 against
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 11.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shot counts for these two teams sit right around the line, with Mirassol's low volume tipping it under.
- Bragantino home matches average 29.4 shots combined
- Mirassol away matches average 27.0 shots combined
- Mirassol average 12.9 shots per match overall
- Bragantino concede 8.9 shots per home match
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 29.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target for these teams typically sit below ten per match.
- Bragantino home matches average 7.9 shots on target combined
- Mirassol away matches average 7.8 on target combined
- Mirassol average 3.9 shots on target over 14 matches
- Bragantino average 5.2 shots on target over 14 matches
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%