Serie AFull timeFeatured

Bahia1Mirassol0

HT 1–0Sun 11 Oct 2026, 22:30

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 16–10On targetOn target 2–2CornersCorners 6–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 17:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Bahia are unbeaten in six tracked home matches and host a Mirassol side that has won once in seven away games, but both clubs lose a confirmed starter to suspension.

Bahia are the likeliest winners, yet 1.67 asks more than their form justifies; the quoted prices that offer something are a goalless first half at 3.4, under 2.5 goals at 2.15, Mirassol avoiding defeat at 2.1 and the draw at 4.0.

Context

Confirmed suspensions remove Bahia's most-used midfielder, N. Acevedo, and Mirassol centre-back João Victor, while a top-four chaser hosts a side sitting two points above the relegation places.

Acevedo has been the deepest of Bahia's midfield three, letting Erick and Rodrigo Nestor play higher and the full-backs advance. He started the Palmeiras defeat and collected the yellow that triggers a one-match ban, so Rogerio Ceni must choose a replacement for the visit of a Mirassol side that defends deep and counters. The cost is softened by the fixture's shape, since Bahia are at home against a team in the bottom five, where the holding midfielder's defensive load is usually lighter. The counterweight is that the ban covers a single match and the squad still has senior central midfielders, with Erick and Jean Lucas both featuring at Palmeiras.
- N. Acevedo was booked 15 minutes into the second half of the 1-0 loss at Palmeiras on 8 October.
- He and Jean Lucas were the only Bahia players cautioned in that match.
- N. Acevedo started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 385 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Mirassol lined up in an unchanged 4-4-2 at Bragantino, with Joao Victor alongside Willian Machado at centre-back and Igor Formiga and Reinaldo as the full-backs. His dismissal removes one half of that pairing for a trip to sixth-placed Bahia, so Rafael Guanaes must rebuild the centre of defence. The mitigating point is that Mirassol protected a clean sheet for the rest of the first half and conceded only once while a man down, suggesting the block can absorb the absence. The red card is also a repeat offence, which matters because he had been a regular starter in the recent winning line-up.
- Joao Victor was shown a straight red card in the first half at RB Bragantino on 7 October.
- It was his third dismissal in just over a year, all straight reds, and Mirassol still drew 1-1 with ten men.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Bahia finished round 29 in sixth, and this home fixture is the third of a sequence against the leading clubs, with another home game against Flamengo to follow. Mirassol are 15th on 33 points, two clear of the relegation places, after a 1-1 draw at Bragantino in which they spent much of the match a man down. That contrast gives the game a clear shape: a home side that needs three points against a visitor protecting a thin cushion. The caveat is that Mirassol have already drawn with Palmeiras this season and held on with ten men at Bragantino, so the gap in the table has not meant automatic defeats against stronger sides.
- Bahia's own round-29 recap placed them sixth after the 1-0 defeat at Palmeiras on 8 October.
- Mirassol sit 15th on 33 points, two above 17th-placed Internacional.
- Bahia's closing sequence runs Athletico-PR, Palmeiras, Mirassol and Flamengo, with the last two at home.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Bahia's six-match home sample contains two clean sheets, and their two most recent home wins, 3-2 over Internacional on 30 August and 2-1 over Remo on 14 September, were each decided by a single goal. Mirassol have scored in five of their seven away matches, so that home record will be tested. The sample ends on 14 September, and Bahia's most recent outing, a 1-0 defeat at Palmeiras on 8 October, brought one shot on target.
- Bahia home split, 6 matches from 30 May to 14 September 2026: 4W 2D 0L, 1.67 scored and 0.83 conceded per game
- Both teams scored in 4 of Bahia's 6 home matches, with 2 clean sheets
- Bahia 3-2 Internacional on 30 August 2026 and Bahia 2-1 Remo on 14 September 2026
- Bahia 0-1 Palmeiras on 8 October 2026: 10 shots and 1 on target

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bahia are unbeaten across their home sample and host a side that has won once on the road.
- Bahia home split: 4W 2D 0L, 1.67 scored and 0.83 conceded per game in 6 matches
- Mirassol away split: 1W 3D 3L, 0.86 scored and 1.43 conceded in 7 matches
- League: Bahia 6th with a 6-6-2 home record; Mirassol 15th with 2-4-8 away
BetBugs · Match WinnerBahiaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides produce few first-half goals away or in slow openings, making level at the break common.
- Mirassol away first half: 0.43 scored, 0.57 conceded per game
- Bahia home first half: 1.17 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
- Mirassol have drawn 7 of 14 tracked matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring from Bahia at home makes a level second half the most common outcome.
- Bahia home second half: 0.5 scored, 0.33 conceded per game
- Mirassol away second half: 0.43 scored, 0.86 conceded per game
- Both teams draw a high share of matches overall
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia are unbeaten across their home sample and host a side that has won once on the road. Both teams draw frequently and Mirassol regularly take a point on the road.
- Bahia home split: 4W 2D 0L, 1.67 scored and 0.83 conceded per game in 6 matches
- Mirassol away split: 1W 3D 3L, 0.86 scored and 1.43 conceded in 7 matches
- Bahia home split contains 2 draws in 6 matches
- Mirassol have drawn 7 of 14 tracked matches, 4 of them away
BetBugs · Double ChanceBahia or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia start home games strongly while Mirassol rarely lead at the break on the road. Both sides produce few first-half goals away or in slow openings, making level at the break common.
- Bahia home first half: 1.17 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
- Mirassol away first half: 0.43 scored, 0.57 conceded per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfBahia or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Mirassol keep scores tight on the road and their recent matches have mostly stayed below the line.
- Mirassol away games average 2.29 total goals
- Four of Mirassol's last six produced 2 goals or fewer
- Mirassol have conceded 0.86 second-half goals per away game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Market price2.15Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Mirassol usually find a goal on the road while Bahia score regularly at home.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Bahia's 6 home games
- Both teams scored in 5 of Mirassol's 7 away games
- Mirassol have scored in 5 of 7 away games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.62Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's strong first-half scoring at home makes at least one goal before the break likely.
- Bahia home first-half average: 1.17 goals
- Mirassol away first-half average: 0.43 goals
- Combined first-half expectation sits near one goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving both teams are low-scoring, favouring fewer than two goals.
- Bahia home second half: 0.5 scored, 0.33 conceded per game
- Mirassol away second half: 0.43 scored, 0.86 conceded per game
- Bahia second-half goals for 0.62 overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's home scoring average sits near one and a half, so a single-goal or blank output is common.
- Bahia home goals for 1.67 per game
- Mirassol away goals against 1.43 per game
- Bahia were held to one goal at Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalBahia under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol find a goal in most away matches and Bahia concede regularly at home.
- Mirassol scored in 5 of 7 away games
- Both teams scored in 5 of Mirassol's 7 away games
- Bahia conceded in 4 of 6 home games in the split
BetBugs · Team to ScoreMirassol to scoreEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Combined corner averages sit above the line, with Mirassol's away games generating plenty.
- Bahia home corners 6.83, opponent corners 4.5
- Mirassol away corners 4.29, opponent corners 7.0
- Mirassol's 1-1 at Bragantino produced 14 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 10.5Market price1.78Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's home shot volume is modest and keeps the combined figure near the line.
- Bahia home shots 15.83, opponent 11.33 (total 27.2)
- Mirassol away shots 10.86, opponent 18.14 (total 29.0)
- Bahia's 3-2 home win over Internacional had 25 shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderUnder 28.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target sit close to the line and recent away games pushed the count up.
- Bahia home shots on target 5.67, opponent 3.17
- Mirassol away shots on target 3.14, opponent 5.14
- Mirassol's 1-1 at Bragantino produced 11 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance52%