Mirassol1Flamengo5

HT 0–1Sun 16 Aug 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 16–15On targetOn target 5–8CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 03:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Flamengo are rightful favorites but face a Mirassol side that scores at home and rarely loses by more than one goal.

The best value is Both Teams to Score (Yes) at 1.83, where our 65% probability gives a +10.4pt edge over the market. Avoid the Flamengo -1 handicap and HT/FT combos, which are poorly priced given the visitors' narrow away wins and slow starts.

Context

CBF's detailed 2026 fixture list (updated 17 March) schedules Mirassol vs Flamengo as match 225 in round 23, in the 8–10 August window.
- The supplied kickoff is 16 August, creating a discrepancy that suggests the date may change.
Mirassol scored in 10 of 11 home matches in Série A this season.
- They failed to score only once at home, against Fluminense in a 1-0 win.
Flamengo away record: 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses.
- They drew against Internacional, Atletico Paranaense, and others away from home.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Flamengo

1.21fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

Both teams rarely lose in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H shows Flamengo unbeaten, making a Mirassol win unlikely.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Flamengo

1.72fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58%

0.0ppshort

Flamengo's superior away form and higher league position (2nd vs 15th) give them a clear edge, though Mirassol's home resilience keeps confidence at MEDIUM.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a strong tendency to score in the first half, especially in home/away contexts, making Over 0.5 first half goals highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's superior away form and higher league position (2nd vs 15th) give them a clear edge, though Mirassol's home resilience keeps confidence at MEDIUM.
- Flamengo away record: 6W-3D-2L, 20 goals scored, 10 conceded in 11 away matches this season.
- Mirassol home record: 5W-3D-3L, 15 goals scored, 13 conceded in 11 home matches.
- Flamengo overall form: WDDWW in last 5, averaging 2.4 goals scored per game.
- Mirassol overall form: LWDWL in last 5, averaging 1.0 goals scored per game.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lose in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H shows Flamengo unbeaten, making a Mirassol win unlikely.
- Mirassol has lost only 3 of 11 home games this season.
- Flamengo has lost only 2 of 11 away games this season.
- H2H last 3 meetings: 2 draws and 1 Flamengo win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FlamengoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low first-half lead rates, and recent H2H shows mixed outcomes, suggesting a draw at half-time is plausible but not strongly supported.
- Mirassol led at half-time in 40% of matches overall, but only 3 of 11 home matches.
- Flamengo led at half-time in 27% of matches overall, and 3 of 11 away matches.
- Last 2 H2H first halves: 1-1 and 1-0 (one draw, one Flamengo lead).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's superior squad depth and away scoring record suggest they are more likely to edge the second half if the game is tight.
- Flamengo has a +10 goal difference in away matches, often scoring late.
- Mirassol has a +2 goal difference at home, but conceded 13 goals, indicating vulnerability.
- Flamengo scored in the second half in 8 of 11 away matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away goal averages and recent H2H high-scoring trend support Over 2.5 goals.
- Flamengo away matches average 2.73 total goals (20 scored, 10 conceded in 11 games).
- Mirassol home matches average 2.55 total goals (15 scored, 13 conceded in 11 games).
- Last 2 H2H meetings: 3-3 and 2-1, both over 2.5 goals.
- Flamengo has scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score in their respective home/away fixtures, and recent H2H confirms this pattern.
- Mirassol scored in 10 of 11 home matches this season.
- Flamengo scored in 9 of 11 away matches this season.
- Both teams scored in last 2 H2H meetings (3-3, 2-1).
- Mirassol conceded in 8 of 11 home matches; Flamengo conceded in 6 of 11 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong tendency to score in the first half, especially in home/away contexts, making Over 0.5 first half goals highly probable.
- Mirassol first half goals at home: scored in 8 of 11 home matches (avg 0.8 first half goals overall).
- Flamengo first half goals away: scored in 7 of 11 away matches (avg 0.7 first half goals overall).
- Last 2 H2H: first half goals in both (1-1 and 1-0).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's high corner rate pushes the combined total near the line, but Mirassol's lower output and missing opponent corner data reduce confidence.
- Flamengo averages 6.0 corners per game overall, Mirassol 4.1.
- Flamengo away corners: 5.5 per game (estimated from data).
- Mirassol home corners: 4.5 per game (estimated from data).
- Combined average ~10.0, but variance is high.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card average is slightly below the line, but the competitive nature of the match could push it over, though evidence is weak.
- Mirassol averages 2.0 yellow cards per game, Flamengo 2.2.
- Mirassol home fouls: 11.8 per game, Flamengo away fouls: 11.5 per game.
- Combined average cards ~4.2, but recent matches show occasional spikes.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Flamengo's first-half away record is mediocre, and Mirassol rarely trails at home at the break, making the 1H win odds poor value.

Prediction history

Flamengo has been inconsistent when projected to win

Flamengo has fulfilled 5 of 10 recent win predictions. The average estimated probability was 56.3%, with an expected 5.6 fulfilled predictions, closely matching the actual 5. Notably, 4 of the 5 missed predictions ended in draws, and away from home they fulfilled only 1 of 4 predictions.

Recent evidence for Flamengo10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Serie A