Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Corinthians1Chapecoense2

HT 1–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–820%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 16–7On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 00:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Corinthians are likely to win or draw, but the odds offer no value on the home win due to suspensions and mediocre home form.

The best betting edge is the first-half draw at 2.40, with a 55% estimated probability versus 42% implied. Under 2.5 goals is also a reasonable play at 1.91.

Context

Corinthians sit 11th in Serie A with 32 points, but their recent form is poor with three straight league defeats.
The absences of Hugo Souza in goal, Gabriel Paulista in central defence, Raniele in midfield, and Yuri Alberto and Vitinho in attack remove five likely starters. This forces Corinthians to field replacements in key areas against a Chapecoense side that has struggled defensively but may find more space if the home team's rhythm is disrupted. The suspensions for accumulated yellow cards and injuries reduce Corinthians' usual depth, making this a less predictable match than the table suggests.
- Hugo Souza (Goalkeeper) is suspended due to yellow cards.
- Gabriel Paulista (Defender) is suspended due to yellow cards.
- Raniele (Midfielder) is suspended due to yellow cards and red card.
- Yuri Alberto (Attacker) and Vitinho (Attacker) are out with muscle and knee injuries respectively.
Corinthians goalkeeper Hugo Souza is suspended after his booking against Santos. He started 4 of the last 5 available lineups.
His absence forces Corinthians to field a different goalkeeper, which can alter defensive organisation and build-up choices. The replacement's unfamiliarity with the back line may affect communication and distribution from the back.
- CNN Brasil reported that Hugo Souza is suspended for the Chapecoense match.
- Lance reported that the booking against Santos triggered Hugo Souza's automatic suspension.
- Hugo Souza started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 00:11 · Europe/BucharestCNN Brasil — Corinthians faces Chapecoense with absenceswww.cnnbrasil.com.br · 6 Sep 2026Lance! — Corinthians lose three starters against Chapecoensewww.lance.com.br · 31 Aug 2026
Chapecoense are bottom of Serie A with 14 points from 24 matches, 11 points from safety.
Their away form is a major weakness: no wins in 12 attempts, with only 8 goals scored and 22 conceded. This suggests they struggle to create chances and defend on the road. Corinthians, even with absences, are likely to control possession and territory. However, Chapecoense's recent 1-0 home win over Sao Paulo shows they can occasionally frustrate stronger opponents, but that was at home where they have been more competitive.
- Chapecoense away record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 9 losses in 12 matches.
- They have scored 8 goals and conceded 22 away from home.
- Their only away points came in draws against Santos (2-2), Bahia (2-2), and Coritiba (1-2 loss).
Corinthians are 11th in the table but have been inconsistent, with 8 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses overall.
The recent losses to Santos (0-1), Coritiba (1-2), and Cruzeiro (1-2) show defensive and attacking issues. They have failed to score in two of those matches and have conceded early goals. This poor form may affect their confidence, but facing the league's worst away team offers a chance to bounce back. The absence of key players adds further uncertainty to their ability to dominate.
- Lost 0-1 at home to Santos on 2026-08-30.
- Lost 1-2 away to Coritiba on 2026-08-23.
- Lost 1-2 at home to Cruzeiro on 2026-08-16.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Corinthians

1.43fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 70%

0.0ppshort

Despite Chapecoense's awful away record, Corinthians' own home form is mediocre and the suspensions weaken them, so the odds overstate their chances.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Corinthians or Draw

1.11fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 90%

−10.0ppshort

The market is already pricing in Chapecoense's away struggles, leaving no value on the home double chance.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Chapecoense's poor away scoring and Corinthians' decent home defense make a clean sheet for the hosts plausible.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.43fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Corinthians' superior home form and Chapecoense's dreadful away record give the hosts a clear edge, though Corinthians' three suspensions and poor recent league form temper confidence.
- Corinthians home record: 5W-3D-5L, 13 goals for, 11 against in 13 home matches.
- Chapecoense away record: 0W-3D-9L, 8 goals for, 22 against in 12 away matches.
- Corinthians average 1.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match overall; Chapecoense average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCorinthiansEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chapecoense's winless away record and Corinthians' solid home form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Chapecoense have not won away this season (0W-3D-9L).
- Corinthians have lost only 5 of 13 home matches.
- H2H last 5: Corinthians 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCorinthians or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Corinthians rarely lead at the break, and Chapecoense often trail but may hold on early, making a level first half probable.
- Corinthians led at half-time in only 13% of matches.
- Chapecoense trailed at half-time in 60% of matches, but their first-half scoring average is 0.5.
- Corinthians' first-half goal difference is 0 (0.4 for, 0.4 against).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A common pattern for Corinthians is a slow start followed by a stronger second half, making draw at half-time and Corinthians full-time a plausible outcome.
- Corinthians have drawn at half-time in many matches and won several at home.
- Chapecoense have lost 9 of 12 away matches, often after being level or behind at half-time.
- Corinthians' second-half scoring is higher than first-half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/CorinthiansEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest scoring rates, and Corinthians' defensive solidity at home suggests a low-scoring affair.
- Corinthians home matches average 1.85 total goals (13 for, 11 against in 13).
- Chapecoense away matches average 2.5 total goals (8 for, 22 against in 12).
- Corinthians average 1.1 goals scored overall; Chapecoense average 1.0 scored.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chapecoense's poor away scoring and Corinthians' decent home defense make a clean sheet for the hosts plausible.
- Corinthians have kept clean sheets in 5 of 13 home matches.
- Chapecoense have failed to score in 5 of 12 away matches.
- Corinthians concede 0.85 goals per home match; Chapecoense score 0.67 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Corinthians average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Chapecoense average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Corinthians led at half-time in only 13% of matches; Chapecoense trailed at half-time in 60%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
As the match opens up, especially if Chapecoense chase the game, second-half goals are more likely, but the evidence is not strong.
- Corinthians average 0.7 second-half goals scored (1.1 total - 0.4 first half).
- Chapecoense average 0.5 second-half goals scored (1.0 total - 0.5 first half).
- Chapecoense concede 1.8 goals per match overall, with many coming late.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the total line is close to their combined average, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Corinthians average 5.2 corners per match; Chapecoense average 4.3 corners per match.
- Combined average corners per match: 9.5.
- Corinthians' recent home matches have seen 8, 14, 3, 6, 6 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is exactly 4.5, and with suspensions and a relegation-threatened away side, cards could exceed the line, but it's uncertain.
- Corinthians average 2.6 yellow cards per match; Chapecoense average 1.9.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.5.
- Corinthians have received 3, 2, 1, 1, 4 yellow cards in recent home matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The odds imply a 70% chance, but our estimate is only 55%, leaving no value and a negative edge.

Prediction history

Corinthians has struggled to clear 9.5 corners in recent matches

Corinthians has fulfilled 1 of 5 Over 9.5 corners predictions. The average estimated probability was 53%, but only 20% of matches reached the threshold. Notably, the only fulfilled prediction came at home, while all three home matches in the sample produced fewer than 10 corners.

Recent evidence for Corinthians5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Serie A

Corinthians0-0

Athletico PR

BetBugsOver 9.5 corners·40%→8 total corners

Missed

31 Jul 2026

Serie A

Corinthians0-0

Athletico PR

Over 9.5 corners

40%probability

8 total corners

Missed

26 Jul·Serie A

Bahia1-1

Corinthians

BetBugsOver 9.5 corners·55%→9 total corners

Missed

26 Jul 2026

Serie A

Bahia1-1

Corinthians

Over 9.5 corners

55%probability

9 total corners

Missed

24 Jul·Serie A

Corinthians3-0 Remo PA

Remo PA

BetBugsOver 9.5 corners·55%→7 total corners

Missed

24 Jul 2026

Serie A

Corinthians3-0

Remo PA

Over 9.5 corners

55%probability

7 total corners

Missed

17 May·Serie A

Botafogo3-1

Corinthians

BetBugsOver 9.5 corners·60%→5 total corners

Missed

17 May 2026

Serie A

Botafogo3-1

Corinthians

Over 9.5 corners

60%probability

5 total corners

Missed

16 Apr·Copa Libertadores

Corinthians2-0

Independiente Santa Fe

BetBugsOver 9.5 corners·55%→13 total corners

Matched

16 Apr 2026

Copa Libertadores

Corinthians2-0

Independiente Santa Fe

Over 9.5 corners

55%probability

13 total corners

Matched

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

D0-0Chapecoense-scvCorinthiansMar 20, 2026SA

W1-0CorinthiansvChapecoense-scNov 2, 2021SA

W0-1Chapecoense-scvCorinthiansJul 9, 2021SA

W0-1Chapecoense-SCvCorinthiansOct 2, 2019SA

W1-0CorinthiansvChapecoense-SCMay 1, 2019SA

Corinthians unbeaten in 5 meetingsCorinthians: 5 clean sheets0.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Corinthians Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	25	8	8	9	26-25	32	LLLWD
20	Chapecoense Relegation - Serie B	24	2	8	14	25-49	14	LWDLD

18pt gap between teamsChapecoense in relegation zone

Recent Form

Corinthians

L0-1SantosAug 30SA

L1-2CoritibaAug 23SA

W1-0Rosario CentralAug 21CON

L1-2CruzeiroAug 16SA

D0-0Rosario CentralAug 14CON

W2-0RB BragantinoAug 9SA

W2-1InternacionalAug 6COP

L0-2InternacionalAug 2COP

D0-0Atletico ParanaenseJul 30SA

D1-1BahiaJul 26SA

W3-0RemoJul 23SA

D1-1CascavelJul 12FRI

W3-1GremioMay 30SA

L0-2PlatenseMay 28CON

W1-0Atletico-MGMay 24SA

Chapecoense

L1-3GremioAug 30SA

W1-0Sao PauloAug 23SA

D0-0CruzeiroAug 2COP

W2-1GremioJul 4FRI

L0-3AvaiJun 3COP

L0-1PalmeirasMay 31SA

D2-2NovorizontinoMay 27COP

L1-2CruzeiroMay 24SA

W2-0NovorizontinoMay 20COP

Squad & Injuries

Corinthians

20 out

Attackers6/9

×#31

×#11

×#9

×#31

×#11

×#9

Midfielders8/13

×#49

×#52

×#14

×#49

×#52

×#14

Defenders4/12

×#5

×#3

×#5

×#3

Goalkeeper2/3

×#1

#49 Andre — Muscle Injury

#5 Andre Ramalho — Inactive

#3 Gabriel Paulista — Yellow Cards

#1 Hugo Souza — Yellow Cards

#31 Kayke — Knee Injury

#52 Z. Labyad — Knee Injury

#14 Raniele — Yellow Cards

#14 Raniele — Red Card

#11 Vitinho — Knee Injury

#9 Yuri Alberto — Muscle Injury

#49 Andre — Muscle Injury

#5 Andre Ramalho — Inactive

#3 Gabriel Paulista — Yellow Cards

#1 Hugo Souza — Yellow Cards

#31 Kayke — Knee Injury

#52 Z. Labyad — Knee Injury

#14 Raniele — Yellow Cards

#14 Raniele — Red Card

#11 Vitinho — Knee Injury

#9 Yuri Alberto — Muscle Injury

Chapecoense

16 out

Attackers2/14

×#11

Midfielders6/19

×#22

×#99

×#17

×#22

×#99

×#17

Defenders6/18

×#91

×#20

×#4

×#91

×#20

×#4

Goalkeeper5

#91 Bruno Pacheco — Yellow Cards

#20 Bruno Tubarao — Inactive

#4 Joao Paulo — Health problems

#22 Max Alves — Injury

#99 Rafael Carvalheira — Knee Injury

#17 Vinicius Balieiro — Inactive

#11 Y. Bolasie — Injury

Robert Conceicao — Knee Injury

#91 Bruno Pacheco — Yellow Cards

#20 Bruno Tubarao — Inactive

#4 Joao Paulo — Health problems

#22 Max Alves — Injury

#99 Rafael Carvalheira — Knee Injury

#17 Vinicius Balieiro — Inactive

#11 Y. Bolasie — Injury

Robert Conceicao — Knee Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Corinthians

Corinthians or Draw

No

Under 1.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Corinthians

Corinthians or Draw

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Corinthians

Chapecoense

Squad & Injuries

Corinthians

Chapecoense