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Predictions graded

RB Bragantino SP0Corinthians2

HT 0–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 10–9On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 3–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Aug 2026, 00:08 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight, low-scoring six-pointer is expected, with Bragantino's home strength and Corinthians' attacking injuries pointing to under 2.5 goals and a goalless first half.

The best value bets are under 0.5 first-half goals (+15% edge) and over 4.5 cards (+47.5% edge), though the latter carries referee risk.

Context

Depay (rest), Yuri Alberto (muscle), Kayke (knee), and Vitinho (hip) are all confirmed out.
- Corinthians have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Bragantino have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches.
Bragantino sit 5th with 30 points, Corinthians 7th with 27 after 19 rounds.
- Both teams are in the continental qualification zone, making this a direct six-pointer.
- High-stakes matches often lead to cautious play, with under 2.5 goals in 4 of Bragantino's last 5 home games.
Bragantino home record: 5W-2D-3L, 16 goals scored, 9 conceded.
- Corinthians away record: 2W-5D-3L, 10 goals scored, 12 conceded.
- Bragantino's last 5 home matches: 4W-1D-0L, 12 goals scored, 2 conceded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
RB Bragantino SP's strong home form and Corinthians' poor away record, combined with the motivational edge of a direct continental qualification clash, give the home side a clear advantage.
- RB Bragantino SP home record this season: 5W-2D-3L, 16 goals scored, 9 conceded in 10 matches.
- Corinthians away record: 2W-5D-3L, 10 goals scored, 12 conceded in 10 matches.
- RB Bragantino SP last 5 home matches across all competitions: 4W-1D-0L, 12 goals scored, 2 conceded.
- Corinthians last 5 away matches: 1W-2D-2L, 5 goals scored, 7 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRB Bragantino SPEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given RB Bragantino SP's solid home form and Corinthians' struggles on the road, a home win or draw is highly probable, supported by the hosts' defensive resilience at home.
- RB Bragantino SP have lost only 3 of 10 home league matches this season.
- Corinthians have won only 2 of 10 away league matches, drawing 5.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings at RB Bragantino SP's home (including neutral venues), RB Bragantino SP have won 3 and lost 2, with no draws.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostRB Bragantino SP or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with low first-half scoring and a high frequency of half-time draws in recent form and H2H, making a level first half the most probable outcome.
- RB Bragantino SP have been leading at half-time in only 40% of their last 15 matches.
- Corinthians have been trailing at half-time in 27% of their last 15 matches, but leading in only 13%.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 were drawn at half-time.
- RB Bragantino SP's first-half goals average: 0.8 scored, 0.3 conceded in last 15 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a half-time draw is common, RB Bragantino SP's ability to push for a win in the second half at home, especially with Corinthians' away fragility, gives this specific HT/FT combo a plausible chance.
- RB Bragantino SP have drawn at half-time in 7 of their last 15 matches, winning 5 of those.
- Corinthians have drawn at half-time in 8 of their last 15 matches, losing 3 and winning 2 of those.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 were drawn at half-time, with RB Bragantino SP winning 2 of those.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / RB Bragantino SPEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency for low-scoring affairs in their respective home/away splits, and the high stakes of a direct six-pointer often lead to cautious play, making under 2.5 goals likely.
- RB Bragantino SP home league matches average 2.5 total goals (16 scored, 9 conceded in 10 games).
- Corinthians away league matches average 2.2 total goals (10 scored, 12 conceded in 10 games).
- RB Bragantino SP's last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
- Corinthians' last 5 away matches: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
RB Bragantino SP's strong home defense and Corinthians' depleted attack, missing several key forwards, significantly reduce the likelihood of both teams scoring.
- RB Bragantino SP have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- Corinthians have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- RB Bragantino SP's home defensive record: only 0.9 goals conceded per game in the league.
- Corinthians are missing key attackers: Depay, Yuri Alberto, Kayke, Vitinho.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With Corinthians missing multiple key attackers and RB Bragantino SP's solid home defensive record, a home clean sheet is a strong possibility.
- RB Bragantino SP have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 10 home matches.
- Corinthians have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Corinthians are without their top scorer Yuri Alberto and creative force Depay.
- RB Bragantino SP's home goals conceded average is 0.9 per game in the league.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCorinthians not to scoreEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of low first-half scoring averages for both teams and a pattern of tight starts in H2H encounters suggests a goalless first half is likely.
- RB Bragantino SP's last 15 matches: 0.8 first-half goals scored, 0.3 conceded on average.
- Corinthians' last 15 matches: 0.5 first-half goals scored, 0.6 conceded on average.
- In 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings, the first half had 0 or 1 goal.
- RB Bragantino SP's last 5 home matches: 3 had 0 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and recent H2H meetings have often seen totals around 9-10, making over 9.5 corners a borderline but reasonable call.
- RB Bragantino SP average 5.0 corners per game in their last 15 matches, while conceding 4.5 opponent corners on average.
- Corinthians average 5.4 corners per game in their last 15 matches, while conceding 3.5 opponent corners on average.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners were: 11, 9, 8, 10, 7 (average 9.0).
- RB Bragantino SP's home matches this season average 10.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high-stakes nature of this continental qualification clash, combined with both teams' above-average card counts and a history of card-filled H2H encounters, points to over 4.5 total cards.
- RB Bragantino SP average 3.1 yellow cards per game in their last 15 matches, with 0.8 red cards.
- Corinthians average 2.5 yellow cards per game in their last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total cards (yellow+red) were: 5, 6, 4, 5, 7 (average 5.4).
- This is a direct six-pointer with high stakes, often leading to more physical play and cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 47% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L2-0CorinthiansvRB BragantinoFeb 12, 2026SA

L3-0RB BragantinovCorinthiansJan 15, 2026PAU

L2-1RB BragantinovCorinthiansNov 5, 2025SA

W1-2CorinthiansvRB BragantinoJul 13, 2025SA

W1-2RB BragantinovCorinthiansJan 16, 2025PAU

Corinthians: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	RB Bragantino SP Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	20	9	4	7	26-20	31	DDWWW
9	Corinthians Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	21	7	8	6	22-20	29	DDWWW

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

RB Bragantino SP

W1-0Sporting CristalJul 30CON

D0-0CoritibaJul 26SA

D0-0Sporting CristalJul 23CON

D1-1FluminenseJul 17SA

W2-1Atletico ParanaenseJul 11FRI

W3-1InternacionalMay 31SA

W2-0Carabobo FCMay 28CON

W3-0Vasco DA GamaMay 24SA

D1-1River PlateMay 21CON

W2-0VitoriaMay 17SA

L1-2MirassolMay 13COP

L0-2SantosMay 10SA

W6-0BloomingMay 8CON

W2-1Chapecoense-scMay 3SA

L0-1River PlateMay 1CON

Corinthians

W2-1InternacionalAug 6COP

L0-2InternacionalAug 2COP

D0-0Atletico ParanaenseJul 30SA

D1-1BahiaJul 26SA

W3-0RemoJul 23SA

D1-1CascavelJul 12FRI

W3-1GremioMay 30SA

L0-2PlatenseMay 28CON

W1-0Atletico-MGMay 24SA

D1-1PenarolMay 22CON

L1-3BotafogoMay 17SA

W1-0BarraMay 14COP

W3-2Sao PauloMay 10SA

D1-1Santa FeMay 7CON

L1-2MirassolMay 3SA

Squad & Injuries

RB Bragantino SP

8 out

Attackers6

Midfielders2/14

×#27

Defenders4/13

×#12

×#16

×#12

×#16

Goalkeeper3

#27 Davi Gomes — Knee Injury

Fabricio — Ankle Injury

#12 Vanderlan — Knee Injury

#16 Gustavo Marques — Injury

#27 Davi Gomes — Knee Injury

Fabricio — Ankle Injury

#12 Vanderlan — Knee Injury

#16 Gustavo Marques — Injury

Corinthians

12 out

Attackers8/7

×#10

×#31

×#11

×#9

×#10

×#31

×#11

×#9

Midfielders4/14

×#52

×#80

×#52

×#80

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

#10 M. Depay — Rest

#31 Kayke — Knee Injury

#52 Z. Labyad — Knee Injury

#11 Vitinho — Hip Injury

#9 Yuri Alberto — Muscle Injury

#80 Alex Santana — Thigh Injury

#10 M. Depay — Rest

#31 Kayke — Knee Injury

#52 Z. Labyad — Knee Injury

#11 Vitinho — Hip Injury

#9 Yuri Alberto — Muscle Injury

#80 Alex Santana — Thigh Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 0.5

Over 4.5

RB Bragantino SP or Draw

Under 2.5

No

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

RB Bragantino SP

Corinthians

Squad & Injuries

RB Bragantino SP

Corinthians