Flamengo2Corinthians1

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 20:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 32–3On targetOn target 10–1CornersCorners 20–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 06:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Flamengo are strong favourites at home, but the odds offer no value on the outright win.

The best betting edges are Over 2.5 goals (+3.9 pts) and Both Teams to Score Yes (+7.4 pts), though Corinthians' injury concerns add risk. Avoid first-half markets, which are overpriced.

Context

Flamengo are top of Serie A with 54 points and a home record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss. Corinthians sit 11th with 32 points and have won only 3 of 12 away matches.
Flamengo's home strength is clear: they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per home game. Corinthians' away form is weaker, with 1.08 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per away game. This gap suggests Flamengo can control the match, but Corinthians' away draws (5) show they can be stubborn.
- Flamengo home record: 8W 3D 1L, 24 goals for, 8 against.
- Corinthians away record: 3W 5D 4L, 13 goals for, 14 against.
- Flamengo average 2.0 goals scored and 0.67 conceded at home; Corinthians average 1.08 scored and 1.17 conceded away.
Corinthians attacker Yuri Alberto has not started any of the five recent fixtures with available lineups, with Pedro Raul starting in the same position in three of those matches.
Yuri Alberto was omitted from the squad for the Libertadores first leg after a setback in his right-thigh recovery, and his availability for this match remains unresolved. If he is unavailable, Corinthians' attacking selection becomes less certain, with Pedro Raul the most recent starter in that role. The lack of a confirmed update means his status must be treated as a watch rather than a settled absence.
- Corinthians arrived in Argentina without Yuri Alberto for the first leg against Estudiantes.
- The report says he suffered a setback while recovering from a right-thigh muscle injury.
- Yuri Alberto started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- Pedro Raul started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Yuri Alberto did not start.
To watchSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 06:19 · Europe/Bucharestge: Corinthians chega à Argentina sem Yuri Albertoge.globo.com · 8 Sep 2026
Corinthians are 11th in Serie A with 32 points, but their recent results have been poor. They have lost four of their last five league games.
The recent run includes losses to Chapecoense (1-2), Santos (0-1), Coritiba (1-2), and Cruzeiro (1-2). This poor form could affect their confidence and defensive organization against a strong Flamengo side. However, they did win their last away league match against RB Bragantino 2-0 on August 9, showing they can still compete on the road.
- Corinthians last five league results: L L L L W.
- Lost to Chapecoense 1-2 on 2026-09-06.
- Lost to Santos 0-1 on 2026-08-30.
- Lost to Coritiba 1-2 on 2026-08-23.
Flamengo are top of the league and have been in excellent scoring form recently.
In their last five league matches, Flamengo scored 13 goals and conceded only 2. They won four of those games, including a 3-0 home win over Botafogo and a 5-1 away win at Mirassol. This attacking output could trouble a Corinthians defense that has conceded in four of their last five league games.
- Flamengo last five league results: W W W L W.
- Scored 13 goals and conceded 2 in those five matches.
- Won 3-0 vs Botafogo on 2026-08-30 and 5-1 at Mirassol on 2026-08-16.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Flamengo

1.43fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Flamengo's dominant home form and superior league position, combined with Corinthians' poor recent away results, make a home win the most likely outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's dominant home form and superior league position, combined with Corinthians' poor recent away results, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Flamengo are 1st with 54 points from 26 games; Corinthians are 11th with 32 points.
- Flamengo home record: 8W 3D 1L, 24 goals scored, 8 conceded in 12 home matches.
- Corinthians away record: 3W 5D 4L, 13 goals scored, 14 conceded in 12 away matches.
- Flamengo last 5 Serie A form: WWWLW; Corinthians last 5 Serie A form: LLLLW.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's strong home record and Corinthians' weak away form make a Flamengo win or draw highly probable.
- Flamengo have lost only 1 of 12 home league games this season.
- Corinthians have won only 3 of 12 away league games.
- Flamengo average 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFlamengo or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's superior first-half performance makes them likely to lead at the break.
- Flamengo have led at half-time in 53% of their matches.
- Corinthians have trailed at half-time in 27% of their matches.
- Flamengo average 1.0 first-half goals vs Corinthians' 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFlamengoEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's tendency to lead early and win at home supports a Flamengo/Flamengo HT/FT result.
- Flamengo have led at half-time in 53% of matches and won 62% overall.
- Corinthians have trailed at half-time in 27% and lost 38% overall.
- Flamengo home record: 8W 3D 1L.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFlamengo/FlamengoEstimated chance45%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's high scoring at home and Corinthians' tendency to concede away support over 2.5 goals.
- Flamengo average 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game overall.
- Corinthians average 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game overall.
- Flamengo home matches average 2.67 total goals (24 scored + 8 conceded in 12 games).
- Corinthians away matches average 2.25 total goals (13 scored + 14 conceded in 12 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Flamengo's defensive strength, Corinthians' ability to score away makes both teams scoring a reasonable possibility.
- Flamengo have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 home league games.
- Corinthians have scored in 8 of their 12 away league games.
- Corinthians have failed to score in only 4 away games this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's strong first-half scoring record suggests at least one goal in the first half.
- Flamengo average 1.0 first-half goals per game overall.
- Corinthians average 0.5 first-half goals per game overall.
- Flamengo have led at half-time in 53% of their matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, making over 1.5 second-half goals likely.
- Flamengo average 1.2 second-half goals per game (2.2 total - 1.0 first half).
- Corinthians average 0.6 second-half goals per game (1.1 total - 0.5 first half).
- Combined second-half average is 1.8 goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, suggesting a total above 9.5 is slightly more likely.
- Flamengo average 5.0 corners per game overall.
- Corinthians average 5.4 corners per game overall.
- Combined average is 10.4 corners per game.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average suggests a total above 8.5 is plausible.
- Flamengo average 5.7 shots on target per game.
- Corinthians average 4.3 shots on target per game.
- Combined average is 10.0 shots on target per game.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corinthians' higher card count pushes the combined total toward over 3.5 cards.
- Flamengo average 0.9 yellow cards per game.
- Corinthians average 2.6 yellow cards per game.
- Combined average is 3.5 yellow cards per game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 54% leaves no cushion vs our 50% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Flamengo's Over 9.5 corners projection has matched in 3 of 6 recent matches

Flamengo's Over 9.5 corners projection has been fulfilled in 3 of 6 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 53%, with an expected 3.2 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 3 matches is close to expectation. Notably, all 3 fulfilled predictions occurred at home, where Flamengo has a 3/4 record, while away matches have seen 0/2 fulfilments.

Recent evidence for Flamengo6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Serie A