Flamengo2Mirassol0

HT 2–0Wed 2 Sept 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 14–8On targetOn target 4–2CornersCorners 9–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 11:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Flamengo are strong favorites at home against a poor-traveling Mirassol, but the straight win offers no value at 1.25.

The best betting edge is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.25, where our 60% probability far exceeds the market's 44.4% implied chance. Avoid the first-half over 0.5 goals market, which is significantly overpriced.

Context

Flamengo are second in Serie A and pushing for the title, so losing three regular starters matters for their shape.
Alex Sandro and Vitao are both defenders, and de la Cruz is a midfielder, so Flamengo's back line and midfield will need changes. The team has strong depth, but these absences could reduce their usual control and defensive stability against Mirassol.
- Alex Sandro (Defender) is out with a calf injury.
- Vitao (Defender) is out with a muscle injury.
- N. de la Cruz (Midfielder) is out with a muscle injury.
Mirassol are 16th, level on points with the relegation zone, so every absence hurts their fight for survival.
Edson Carioca and Negueba are attackers, Jose Aldo and Neto Moura are midfielders, so Mirassol lose options in both attack and midfield. Neto Moura is also listed as questionable with an injury, adding further uncertainty to their lineup.
- Edson Carioca (Attacker) is out with an injury.
- Negueba (Attacker) is out with a knee injury.
- Jose Aldo (Midfielder) is out with a muscle injury.
- Neto Moura (Midfielder) is suspended due to yellow cards and also questionable with an injury.
The teams met recently in Serie A, with Flamengo winning comfortably away from home.
Flamengo scored five goals and conceded only one in that match, which suggests they can create chances against Mirassol's defense. However, Mirassol may adjust their approach after that heavy defeat, so the same result is not guaranteed.
- On 2026-08-16, Flamengo won 5-1 away at Mirassol in Serie A.
Flamengo come into this match after a 3-0 home win over Botafogo on 30 August.
The three-day turnaround leaves limited recovery time and a short on-pitch preparation window. This may force rotation or careful management of players who featured in the derby, though the club has not specified any lineup changes.
- Flamengo reported a 3-0 home win over Botafogo on 30 August.
- The club stated that its next match is Mirassol at the Maracanã on 2 September.
- Ge reported that the CBF scheduled Flamengo v Mirassol as the postponed fourth-round fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 11:18 · Europe/BucharestFlamengo match reportwww.flamengo.com.br · 30 Aug 2026Ge: CBF sets date for postponed Flamengo v Mirassol matchge.globo.com · 21 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's dominant home form and Mirassol's poor away record, combined with the recent 5-1 H2H win, make a home victory highly likely.
- Flamengo home record: 7W-3D-1L, 22 goals scored, 8 conceded in 11 home matches.
- Mirassol away record: 1W-3D-7L, 10 goals scored, 18 conceded in 11 away matches.
- Flamengo overall points 48 vs Mirassol 25; goal difference +27 vs -10.
- H2H last meeting: Flamengo won 5-1 away at Mirassol on 2026-08-16.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's strong home resilience and Mirassol's away struggles make a Flamengo win or draw extremely probable.
- Flamengo have lost only 1 of 11 home matches this season.
- Mirassol have won only 1 of 11 away matches.
- Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 home matches (4W-1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFlamengo or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's first-half dominance and Mirassol's slow starts make a home lead at the break likely.
- Flamengo led at half-time in 53% of matches.
- Mirassol trailed at half-time in 20% of matches.
- Flamengo average 0.9 first-half goals vs Mirassol's 0.4 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's ability to lead early and maintain control supports a home win in both halves.
- Flamengo led at half-time in 53% of matches and won 58% overall.
- Mirassol trailed at half-time in 20% and lost 46% overall.
- Flamengo home matches: 7 wins, 5 with half-time lead.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonFlamengo/FlamengoEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's high scoring rate and Mirassol's leaky away defense, plus the recent high-scoring H2H, support over 2.5 goals.
- Flamengo average 2.4 goals per match overall and 2.0 at home.
- Mirassol concede 1.5 goals per match overall and 1.64 away.
- H2H last meeting produced 6 goals (5-1).
- Flamengo's last 5 home matches: 3,2,1,4,3 goals scored.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's solid home defense and Mirassol's away scoring struggles make a clean sheet for the home side likely.
- Flamengo have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 10 matches.
- Mirassol have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Flamengo concede only 0.73 goals per home match.
- Mirassol average 0.91 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's defensive strength at home and Mirassol's away scoring difficulties support a home clean sheet.
- Flamengo have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
- Flamengo home clean sheet rate: 45% (5 of 11).
- Mirassol have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMirassol not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's tendency to score early, especially at home, makes a first-half goal likely.
- Flamengo average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Mirassol concede 0.4 first-half goals per match on average.
- Flamengo led at half-time in 53% of matches.
- H2H last meeting had 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's second-half scoring and Mirassol's defensive fatigue suggest multiple second-half goals.
- Flamengo average 1.5 second-half goals per match (2.4 total - 0.9 first half).
- Mirassol concede 1.1 second-half goals per match (1.5 total - 0.4 first half).
- Flamengo's last 5 home matches had 2+ second-half goals in 3 games.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's attacking pressure and Mirassol's defensive posture may lead to a higher corner count.
- Flamengo average 4.7 corners per match, Mirassol 3.9.
- Flamengo home matches average 5.2 corners, Mirassol away 3.5.
- Combined average corners: 8.6, but Flamengo's attacking style often forces more.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's high shot volume should push total shots on target over the line.
- Flamengo average 7.1 shots on target per match.
- Mirassol average 3.4 shots on target per match.
- Combined average 10.5, but Mirassol's away average drops to 3.0.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's high card count and defensive pressure may push total cards over 3.5.
- Flamengo average 1.0 yellow cards per match, Mirassol 2.1.
- Mirassol away matches average 2.5 yellow cards.
- Referee tendencies unknown, but Mirassol's defensive style often leads to fouls.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 80% leaves no cushion vs our 78% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Flamengo has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Flamengo has fulfilled 5 of 10 recent win predictions. The average estimated probability was 56.3%, with an expected 5.6 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment was slightly below expectation. Missed predictions were mostly draws (4), with only one loss, and home matches showed better fulfilment (4 of 6) than away (1 of 4).

Recent evidence for Flamengo10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Serie A