Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Santos1Mirassol1

HT 0–1Sun 23 Aug 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 21–5On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 10–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 11:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Santos are favored at home but the market overprices them; the best value is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.90 (55% model vs 34.5% implied).

Avoid Over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.30 (65% model vs 76.9% implied).

Context

Santos home record: 5W 3D 4L, 17 goals scored, 16 conceded in 12 home matches.
- Recent home results include a 0-2 loss to Atletico Paranaense and a 2-2 draw with Chapecoense.
- Their home goal difference is only +1, indicating close matches.
Mirassol away record: 1W 2D 7L, 9 goals scored, 17 conceded in 10 away matches.
- They have lost their last three away matches in all competitions.
- Only one away win all season, against Always Ready in the Libertadores.
Santos 1-1 Mirassol (19 Nov 2025, Série A).
- Mirassol 2-2 Santos (10 Mar 2026, Série A).
- Santos are unbeaten in 10 listed home meetings, but the recent Série A sample is two draws.
Santos played Remo in the Copa do Brasil on 5 Aug and 2 Aug.
- They also played Macara in the Sudamericana on 13 Aug.
- Mirassol also had cup matches, but Santos' schedule appears slightly more packed.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Santos or Draw

1.22fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Santos are unbeaten in 10 home meetings with Mirassol and Mirassol have only 1 away win all season, making a Santos win or draw highly likely.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Santos home matches average 2.75 total goals and both teams concede regularly, supporting a moderate lean to Over 2.5.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches and possess leaky defenses, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goal average is 1.2 per match, but the odds heavily price in at least one goal, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Santos' strong home form and Mirassol's poor away record, combined with historical home dominance, give Santos the edge, though recent H2H draws temper confidence.
- Santos home record: 5W 3D 4L, 17 goals scored, 16 conceded in 12 home matches
- Mirassol away record: 1W 2D 7L, 9 goals scored, 17 conceded in 10 away matches
- Santos unbeaten in 10 listed home meetings with Mirassol (8W 2D), but last two Série A meetings ended 1-1 and 2-2
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSantosEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Santos are strong at home and Mirassol struggle away, making a Santos win or draw highly likely.
- Santos home record: 5W 3D 4L (67% unbeaten at home)
- Mirassol away record: 1W 2D 7L (only 30% unbeaten away)
- Last two H2H meetings ended in draws
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSantos or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles and recent H2H first halves have been level, making a draw at half-time plausible.
- Santos lead at half-time in 33% of matches, trail in 20%
- Mirassol lead at half-time in 40% of matches, trail in 20%
- Last two H2H meetings were level at half-time (1-1 and 0-0)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Santos win is a plausible scenario given Santos' second-half strength and Mirassol's away struggles, but the specific combination is low probability.
- Santos have drawn at half-time in 47% of matches (7 of 15)
- Santos have won 40% of matches overall
- Mirassol have lost 50% of away matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/SantosEstimated chance20%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring and conceding rates, and Santos' home games tend to produce goals, supporting Over 2.5.
- Santos average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match overall
- Mirassol average 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match overall
- Santos home matches average 2.75 total goals (17 scored + 16 conceded in 12 games)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net and have leaky defenses, making BTTS a reasonable expectation.
- Santos have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches
- Mirassol have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches
- Both teams have conceded in most recent matches (Santos 1.3 goals conceded avg, Mirassol 1.5)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Santos average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded
- Mirassol average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.2 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Santos tend to score more in the second half, and combined second-half scoring rates support Over 1.5.
- Santos average 1.4 second-half goals (2.0 total - 0.6 first half)
- Mirassol average 0.4 second-half goals (1.1 total - 0.7 first half)
- Santos home matches average 1.75 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages are near the 9.5 line, but the low confidence reflects limited corner-specific data.
- Santos average 5.4 corners per match, Mirassol average 4.3
- Santos home matches average 5.4 corners for and 3.4 against (total 8.8)
- Mirassol away matches average 4.3 corners for and 4.5 against (total 8.8)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card average is just above 4.5, but without referee tendencies this is a low-confidence call.
- Santos average 2.6 yellow cards per match, Mirassol average 2.0
- Combined average yellow cards is 4.6
- Referee data unavailable
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 54% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Santos has been highly reliable when projected to go over 4.5 cards

Santos has fulfilled 5 of 5 recent over 4.5 cards predictions. The average estimated probability was 59%, with an expected 3 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment exceeded expectation. All five matches produced at least 5 total cards, with three at home and two away.

Recent evidence for Santos5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Serie A