Mirassol1LDU Quito1

HT 1–0Thu 13 Aug 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 50%–50%ShotsShots 13–14On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 7–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 00:41 · Europe/Bucharest

A cautious first leg is expected, with Mirassol’s perfect home defensive record and LDU Quito’s away struggles pointing to a low-scoring game.

The best value is in the first-half under 1.5 goals (80% estimated probability, small edge) and the first-half draw (55% estimate vs. 47% implied). Avoid backing Mirassol outright at short odds, as the draw risk is significant.

Context

Mirassol home group stage: 3 wins, 5 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- LDU Quito away group stage: 1 win, 2 losses, 1 goal scored, 3 conceded.
- In the 2026 H2H at Mirassol, the home side won 2-0 with a clean sheet.
The return leg is scheduled for 18-20 August, keeping the tie alive regardless of this result.
- Both 2026 H2H meetings were level at half-time (0-0 and 1-1).
- Mirassol average only 0.8 first-half goals in their last 15 matches; LDU Quito average 0.5.
LDU Quito away in Libertadores 2026: 1-0-2 record, 1 goal scored.
- Last four domestic away matches: 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses.
- They failed to score in three of those four domestic away games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's perfect home defensive record in the competition and LDU Quito's poor away form, combined with the H2H pattern of home dominance, give Mirassol a moderate edge.
- Mirassol home record in Copa Libertadores 2026 group stage: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 5 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- LDU Quito away record in Copa Libertadores 2026 group stage: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses, 1 goal scored, 3 conceded.
- H2H in 2026: both matches ended 2-0 to the home side, with Mirassol winning at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMirassolEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's strong home form and LDU Quito's away struggles, along with the first-leg context reducing risk of an away win, support a high probability for Mirassol or Draw.
- Mirassol home record in Copa Libertadores 2026: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- LDU Quito away record in Copa Libertadores 2026: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses.
- First-leg caution may lead to a tighter game, but Mirassol's home strength makes a loss unlikely.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMirassol or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The teams' first-half records and the cautious first-leg approach suggest a drawn first half is the most likely outcome.
- Mirassol led at half-time in 40% of last 15 matches, trailed in 13%.
- LDU Quito led at half-time in 20% of last 15 matches, trailed in 27%.
- Both 2026 H2H first halves were draws (0-0 and 1-1).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not highly probable, the pattern of a tight first half followed by a home breakthrough is plausible given Mirassol's home strength and LDU Quito's away fragility.
- Mirassol has won after a drawn first half in some recent home matches.
- LDU Quito has lost away after a drawn first half in the group stage.
- First-leg caution may lead to a late home push.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/MirassolEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown low-scoring patterns in this competition, especially Mirassol at home, and the first-leg caution further supports a low total.
- Mirassol home matches in Copa Libertadores 2026: all 3 had under 2.5 goals (2-0, 1-0, 2-0).
- LDU Quito away matches in Copa Libertadores 2026: 2 of 3 had under 2.5 goals.
- Both H2H meetings in 2026 ended 2-0.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's home defensive solidity and LDU Quito's away scoring struggles make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Mirassol kept clean sheets in all 3 home Copa Libertadores 2026 group matches.
- LDU Quito failed to score in 2 of 3 away group matches.
- In both 2026 H2H meetings, the losing side failed to score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's flawless home defensive record in the competition and LDU Quito's away attacking weakness point to a home clean sheet.
- Mirassol kept clean sheets in all 3 home Copa Libertadores 2026 group matches.
- LDU Quito scored only 1 goal in 3 away group matches.
- Mirassol's overall goals conceded average in last 15 matches: 1.1, but home defensive record in Libertadores is perfect.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostLDU Quito not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and the first-leg context encourages a cautious start, making under 1.5 first-half goals highly likely.
- Mirassol's first-half goals average in last 15 matches: 0.8, first-half goals conceded: 0.4.
- LDU Quito's first-half goals average in last 15 matches: 0.5, first-half goals conceded: 0.3.
- In both 2026 H2H meetings, the first half had 0 or 1 goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the low-scoring trends and the importance of the first leg, the second half is also likely to see limited goals.
- Mirassol's second-half goals in recent home matches: often 1 or fewer.
- LDU Quito's away second-half scoring: limited, with only 1 away goal in group stage.
- First-leg dynamics may keep the game tight even in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to have moderate corner counts, and the cautious first-leg style may limit attacking width, keeping total corners under 9.5.
- Mirassol's average corners per match in last 15: 4.1, opponent corners: 4.3.
- LDU Quito's average corners per match in last 15: 5.9, but away matches often see fewer.
- In the 2026 H2H at Mirassol, total corners were 7.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 59% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Mirassol has been highly reliable when projected to win

Mirassol has fulfilled all 4 of its match-winner predictions. The average estimated probability was 45%, and the current prediction of 45% sits within the historical range of 42–48%. At home, Mirassol has won all 3 matches when favoured.

Recent evidence for Mirassol4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Serie A