Sport Recife2Juventude1

HT 1–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–838%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 8–8On targetOn target 3–1CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 05:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Sport's home fortress (one defeat all season) and Juventude's stingy defence (0.7 conceded per game) point to a tight, low-scoring game likely settled after the break.

The one clear value edge is Over 0.5 second-half goals at 1.45 (78% vs 69% implied); avoid the Draw or Juventude double chance at 1.55, where the market is far too short given Juventude's modest away output.

Context

Sport Recife are ninth in Serie B on 41 points from 28 games, with a home record of six wins, seven draws and one defeat in 14 matches at their own ground.
Their home matches have produced 24 goals scored and 14 conceded, a clear split from an away record of four wins, four draws and six defeats. The single home loss shows the record is strong rather than perfect, and Juventude's away form of five wins, four draws and four defeats is solid enough that this is not a free home win. The practical question is whether Sport can turn their usual home control into goals against a Juventude side that concedes only 0.7 per game.
- Sport Recife's home league record is 6 wins, 7 draws and 1 defeat in 14 Serie B games, with 24 goals scored and 14 conceded.
- Their overall record is 10 wins, 11 draws and 7 defeats from 28 matches, placing them ninth on 41 points.
- Juventude's away record is 5 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats in 13 away league games, with 11 goals scored and 11 conceded.
Mariano Soso was appointed Sport Recife head coach on 8 September 2026 and began working with the squad the following day, leaving a short window before this Juventude fixture.
A new coach can change the starting selection, the pressing approach and the in-possession structure, and Soso himself said at his presentation that he had a short timeframe to intervene and needed to adapt to the current context. Because his methods are still being implemented, the size of any immediate change to Sport's shape or personnel is uncertain rather than settled. The home side's usual structure may therefore look different from recent matches, in ways that are not yet established.
- Sport officially appointed Mariano Soso as head coach of the professional team on 8 September.
- At his presentation, Soso said he had a short timeframe to intervene and needed to adapt to the current context.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 05:12 · Europe/BucharestSport Club do Recifesportrecife.com.br · 8 Sep 2026Sport Club do Recife presentationsportrecife.com.br · 9 Sep 2026
Juventude are second in Serie B on 50 points from 28 games, level with first-placed Novorizontino, while Sport Recife are ninth on 41 points.
Juventude's record of 14 wins, 8 draws and 6 defeats has them in an automatic promotion place, and their defensive numbers of 17 goals conceded in 28 games are the lowest in this match. Sport's 41 points leave them outside the promotion group, so the table gives Juventude the stronger incentive to avoid defeat. The gap of nine points to first is not decisive on its own, but it shows the two teams are separated by more than home advantage.
- Juventude are second on 50 points from 28 games, level with Novorizontino at the top of Serie B.
- Sport Recife are ninth on 41 points, nine points behind the leaders.
- Juventude have conceded 17 goals in 28 league games, the fewest of the two teams in this match.
Juventude sat second on 50 points after round 28, four points clear of sixth-placed Atlético-GO, so this away fixture falls inside the promotion race.
The table position gives Juventude a concrete incentive to protect a top-six place, which shapes how they approach a match away from home. The gap to sixth is only four points, so the margin for dropped points is narrow and the standings can shift quickly. That incentive is real, but it does not by itself determine the result or how open the game will be.
- Juventude were second on 50 points after their 0-2 home defeat to Athletic.
- Sixth-placed Atlético-GO had 46 points after round 28.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 05:12 · Europe/BucharestUOLwww.uol.com.br · 14 Sep 2026Esporte Clube Juventudewww.juventude.com.br · 13 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sport Recife or Draw

1.38fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 72%

−6.0ppshort

The market already prices Sport's structural home edge more aggressively than our estimate, so the double chance offers no cushion despite the strong venue split.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home edge is the strongest signal — Sport have lost just once at home all season while Juventude's away scoring is limited (11 goals in 13), so the double chance leans heavily to the home side despite Sport's new-coach uncertainty.
- Sport Recife home record 2026 Serie B: 6W-7D-1L in 14 home games, only 1 home defeat (24 goals for, 14 against).
- Juventude away record: 5W-4D-4L in 13 away games, 11 goals for and 11 against — modest away output.
- Sport home form last 5 home matches: 2W-2D-1L with 2-0 and 3-0 wins; Juventude last 5 overall: L-W-D-D-W.
- H2H last 5: Sport won the most recent meeting 1-0 away (23 May 2026) and won 3-0 at home in 2023.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSport Recife or DrawEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juventude's promotion stakes and elite defence (0.7 conceded per game) give them a real floor, and Sport's high draw rate plus a brand-new coach (Soso appointed 8 September) creates genuine stalemate risk.
- Juventude sit 2nd on 50 points with the league's joint-best defensive record (17 conceded in 28).
- Juventude away: 5W-4D-4L, 11 scored and 11 conceded in 13 away matches.
- Sport Recife have drawn 11 of 28 league games (39%), the highest draw share among top-half sides.
- H2H last 5 alternated results with no side winning consecutive meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or JuventudeEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's strong half-time parity record (level in two-thirds of matches) and Sport's inconsistency make a level first half the most probable outcome.
- Juventude were level at half-time in 67% of their last 15 matches (led 20%, trailed 13%).
- Sport Recife led at half-time in 40% and trailed in 33% of their last 15.
- Juventude's last 5 half-time results: D, D, W, D, L.
- Sport's last 5 half-time results: L, W, D, L, W — inconsistent.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sport's home scoring volume and second-half goal pattern give them the edge after the break, though Juventude's defensive record caps confidence.
- Sport Recife home record 6W-7D-1L with 24 goals scored at home in 14 games.
- Sport's last 5 matches all featured second-half goals, including 3-0 and 2-0 wins.
- Juventude away: 11 scored, 11 conceded in 13 away games, with only 5 away wins.
- Juventude's last 5 second halves included a 0-2 collapse at Athletic.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSport RecifeEstimated chance40%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's low-scoring, defence-first profile (0.9 goals for, 0.7 against) combined with Sport's inconsistent finishing makes a low total the base case.
- Juventude average 0.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded across their last 15 matches.
- Sport Recife average 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded, but their last 5 produced 1-2, 2-0, 1-2, 1-2, 3-0.
- Juventude's last 5 matches produced totals of 2, 2, 4, 0, 3 goals — three of five under 2.5.
- Juventude have kept 8 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's defensive solidity and tendency to blank in attack, plus recent H2H scorelines that produced at least one clean sheet, point to a 'No' on both teams scoring.
- Juventude have conceded 0.7 goals per game over their last 15 and kept 8 clean sheets.
- Juventude failed to score in 6 of their last 15 matches.
- Sport Recife scored 1.4 per game but were shut out in 2 of their last 5.
- Last H2H (23 May 2026) finished 1-0, and the 2025 Serie A meetings were 0-2 and 2-0.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams start slowly — Juventude score just 0.3 first-half goals and Sport 0.7 — so a low-scoring opening period is the clear statistical base.
- Juventude average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded over their last 15 matches.
- Juventude led at half-time in only 20% of matches and trailed in 13%.
- Sport Recife average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- In Juventude's last 5, four first halves ended 0-0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides concentrate scoring after the break (Sport 0.7 of 1.4 goals pre-half-time; Juventude 0.3 of 0.9), making at least one second-half goal highly likely.
- Sport Recife's last 5 matches produced second-half goals in every game (1-2, 2-0, 1-2, 1-2, 3-0).
- Juventude's last 5 produced second-half goals in 4 of 5 matches.
- Sport average 1.4 goals per game with only 0.7 arriving before half-time, implying second-half weighting.
- Juventude's 2-2 draw with Atlético-GO saw both second-half goals after a 2-1 half-time score.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juventude's away defensive record (0.85 conceded per game) and Sport's occasional blanks give a realistic chance of an away clean sheet, though Sport's home scoring makes it a low-confidence call.
- Juventude have conceded 0.7 goals per game and kept 8 clean sheets in their last 15.
- Juventude away record: 11 conceded in 13 away games (0.85 per game).
- Sport Recife failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Juventude kept clean sheets in 0-0 draws with Londrina and Fortaleza recently.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSport Recife not to scoreEstimated chance33%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juventude's strong defensive numbers and Sport's modest home scoring output make a low home goal total plausible, though Sport's 24 home goals in 14 games limits confidence.
- Sport Recife average 1.4 goals per game but only 0.7 in the first half.
- Juventude have conceded 0.7 per game and kept 8 clean sheets in 15.
- Sport's last 5 home matches produced 2, 3, 2, 1, 1 goals.
- Juventude's away defence conceded 11 in 13 away games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSport Recife under 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sport's high possession (56.5%) and crossing volume generate corner counts near 5 per game, and combined with Juventude's away defensive block the total sits close to the 8.5 line.
- Sport Recife average 4.9 corners per match over their last 15.
- Juventude average 3.6 corners per match over their last 15.
- Sport's recent matches featured corner counts of 3, 7, 10, 3, 5 and opponent counts of 5, 3, 9, 9, 10.
- Juventude's last 5 corner totals: 3, 2, 3, 1, 5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average above four shots on target per game, and their combined recent totals frequently exceed eight, supporting the over.
- Sport Recife average 4.2 shots on target per match over their last 15.
- Juventude average 4.1 shots on target per match over their last 15.
- Sport's last 5 shots on target: 3, 6, 5, 1, 7.
- Juventude's last 5 shots on target: 8, 2, 5, 2, 9.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's high foul volume (17.8 per game) and both teams' card averages above two each make a combined total over 4.5 cards the statistical base.
- Juventude average 17.8 fouls and 2.3 yellow cards per match over their last 15.
- Sport Recife average 13.8 fouls and 2.1 yellow cards per match.
- Juventude's last 5 matches produced yellow-card counts of 3, 4, 3, 0, 1.
- Sport's last 5 produced 2, 2, 0, 2, null yellows with fouls of 7, 18, 7, 8, 18.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 42% vs our 40% estimate leaves no cushion; the price already reflects the home-venue edge.

Prediction history

Sport Recife's Over 4.5 Cards Projections Have Rarely Been Fulfilled

Sport Recife has fulfilled only 1 of 5 recent Over 4.5 cards projections, a 20% rate. The average estimated probability was 59%, so the expected fulfilment was 3 matches, meaning the actual result fell well short of expectation. The current 60% probability sits within the historical range of 55% to 65%, and the single fulfilment came at home, where Sport Recife has 1 fulfilment from 3 home matches.

Recent evidence for Sport Recife5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Serie B