Juventude2CRB AL1

HT 0–1Tue 25 Aug 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 13–17On targetOn target 9–4CornersCorners 5–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 04:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Juventude are strong favourites at home with a 62% model probability vs 52% implied, offering a +10-point edge on the home win at 1.91.

The double chance (Juventude or Draw) is a safer option at 1.22. Avoid Under 2.5 and first-half Under 1.5, where the market has already priced in Juventude's defensive strength.

Context

Juventude home record: 8W 3D 1L, 15 goals scored, 1 conceded in 12 home matches.
- Juventude have kept 11 clean sheets in 12 home matches.
- Juventude's only home defeat came in the Copa do Brasil against Atletico-MG, not in Série B.
Juventude are unbeaten in 6 home meetings vs CRB (5W 1D).
- The most recent home H2H ended 3-1 to Juventude in September 2023.
- CRB's only win in the last five H2H meetings came at home in April 2026.
Juventude's official match service reported the club as vice-leader on 15 August.
- CBF's 2026 Série B basic table includes an access-playoff phase.
- Juventude are defending the best home campaign in the division, per their official match service.
CRB away record: 6W 3D 3L, 16 goals scored, 18 conceded in 12 away matches.
- CRB have kept only 3 clean sheets in 12 away matches.
- CRB lost 5-0 away to Londrina in July, showing defensive vulnerability on the road.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's dominant home record and historical H2H edge at home, combined with promotion motivation, make them strong favorites.
- Juventude home record: 8W 3D 1L, 15 goals scored, 1 conceded in 12 home matches
- Juventude are unbeaten in 6 home meetings vs CRB (5W 1D)
- Juventude form last 5: WDWWL, with 3 wins and 2 clean sheets
- CRB away record: 6W 3D 3L, but only 16 goals scored and 18 conceded in 12 away matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJuventudeEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's fortress-like home form and CRB's poor historical record at this venue make a home defeat highly unlikely.
- Juventude have lost only 1 home match all season
- CRB have never won at Juventude in recorded H2H
- Juventude home points per game: 2.25
BetBugs · Double ChancewonJuventude or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams may be cautious early, with Juventude's strong defense and CRB's need to avoid conceding, making a draw at half-time plausible.
- Juventude leading at half-time in 33% of matches overall, but at home they often start cautiously
- CRB leading at half-time in 60% of matches, but away from home that drops
- Juventude home first half goals: 0.5, CRB away first half goals: 0.9
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juventude's ability to grind out wins at home, often after a tight first half, supports a draw at half-time and Juventude full-time.
- Juventude often win after a level first half at home
- CRB have struggled to hold leads away from home
- Juventude's second-half home performance is strong
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/JuventudeEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home defense concedes only 0.08 goals per game, making a low-scoring match likely despite CRB's decent away attack.
- Juventude home matches average 1.33 total goals (15 scored, 1 conceded in 12 games)
- Juventude have kept 11 clean sheets in 12 home matches
- CRB away matches average 2.83 total goals, but Juventude's defense is elite at home
- Last H2H at Juventude ended 3-1, but current Juventude defense is much stronger
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home defensive record is exceptional, and CRB's away scoring has been inconsistent, making a Juventude clean sheet likely.
- Juventude have kept clean sheets in 11 of 12 home matches
- CRB failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches
- Juventude home goals conceded: 1 in 12 games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home defense is the best in the league, and CRB's away attack has been inconsistent, supporting a home clean sheet.
- Juventude have kept clean sheets in 11 of 12 home matches
- CRB have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches
- Juventude home goals conceded: 1 in 12 games
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCRB AL not to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home matches tend to be tight in the first half, with low scoring, and CRB's away first-half scoring is not high enough to break that pattern.
- Juventude first half goals at home: 0.5 per game average
- Juventude first half goals conceded at home: 0.2 per game average
- CRB first half goals away: 0.9 per game average, but Juventude's home defense is strong
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average is around 10, making over 9.5 a close call.
- Juventude average 4.3 corners per match, CRB average 5.7 corners per match
- Combined average corners: 10.0
- CRB away matches average 5.7 corners for CRB and 4.3 for opponents
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average is close to 4.5, and with the intensity of a promotion race, cards could exceed the line.
- Juventude average 2.2 yellow cards per match, CRB average 2.1 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.3
- Juventude home matches tend to have more cards due to their physical style
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 24% leaves no cushion vs our 20% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Juventude has been highly reliable when projected to see over 4.5 cards

Juventude has fulfilled 3 of 4 recent over 4.5 cards projections, a 75% success rate. The average estimated probability was 57.5%, with an expected 2.3 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment exceeded expectation. The current prediction of 55% sits within the historical range of 50-65%, and the team has matched the over in both away matches.

Recent evidence for Juventude4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Serie B