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Predictions graded

Juventude0Fortaleza0

HT 0–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 5–4On targetOn target 0–1CornersCorners 1–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 23:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Juventude's strong home form and promotion incentive clash with Fortaleza's dominant H2H record (won last four, including 5-0 and 3-0).

The market is efficient, with no clear value on double chance, under 2.5 goals, or BTTS No. Avoid the match winner market due to H2H uncertainty; the most likely scenario is a low-scoring Juventude win or draw, but odds are fair.

Context

Juventude home record: 8W 2D 1L, 15 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- Fortaleza away record: 2W 4D 5L, 6 goals scored, 12 conceded.
- Juventude have kept clean sheets in 10 of 11 home matches.
Fortaleza won 2-1 in April 2026 and 2-1 in October 2025.
- Fortaleza won 5-0 in May 2025 and 3-0 in November 2024.
- Juventude have failed to win any of the last five H2H matches.
Juventude are second in Série B with 38 points after 21 rounds.
- They beat Novorizontino 1-0 away on 9 August.
- A win could put pressure on leaders Criciúma.
CEO confirmed departures were budgetary decisions.
- Key players João Ricardo, Bareiro, Moisés, Herrera and Breno Lopes left.
- The club framed 2026 as a sustainable rebuild.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Juventude or Draw

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Juventude's fortress-like home record (8W 2D 1L) and Fortaleza's away struggles (2W 4D 5L) make a home loss unlikely, but the odds already reflect this with only 80% implied probability.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.48fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low-scoring profiles, especially Juventude at home and Fortaleza away, making under 2.5 goals likely.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Juventude's exceptional home defense and Fortaleza's away scoring struggles suggest at least one team will fail to score.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Fortaleza not to score

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Juventude's home defensive record is elite, and Fortaleza's away attack is weak, making a home clean sheet probable.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.48fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Second-half scoring is also modest for both teams, supporting under 1.5 goals in the second half.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juventude's dominant home form and Fortaleza's poor away record give the hosts a clear structural edge, though H2H psychology tempers confidence.
- Juventude home record: 8W 2D 1L, 15 goals scored, 1 conceded in 11 home matches
- Juventude last 5 form: WWLWW (4 wins, 1 loss), including 3-0 and 2-0 home wins
- Fortaleza away record: 2W 4D 5L, 6 goals scored, 12 conceded in 11 away matches
- Fortaleza last 5 away form: D L L W L (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJuventudeEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's fortress-like home record and Fortaleza's away struggles make a home loss unlikely, supporting the double chance.
- Juventude home record: 8W 2D 1L (only 1 home loss all season)
- Fortaleza away record: 2W 4D 5L (only 2 away wins)
- Juventude have lost only 1 of 11 home matches
- Fortaleza have failed to win 9 of 11 away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonJuventude or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles with a high draw rate, making a level first half plausible.
- Juventude leading at half-time in 33% of matches, trailing in 20%
- Fortaleza leading at half-time in 33% of matches, trailing in 33%
- Juventude first-half result: 5 draws in last 15 matches
- Fortaleza first-half result: 6 draws in last 15 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Juventude win is a plausible scenario given Juventude's second-half strength and Fortaleza's away fragility.
- Juventude have drawn at half-time in 5 of last 15 matches
- Juventude have won 11 of 21 matches overall
- Fortaleza have drawn at half-time in 6 of last 15 matches
- Fortaleza have lost 6 of 21 matches overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/JuventudeEstimated chance20%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring profiles, especially Juventude at home and Fortaleza away, making under 2.5 goals likely.
- Juventude home matches average 1.45 total goals (15 scored, 1 conceded in 11 games)
- Fortaleza away matches average 1.64 total goals (6 scored, 12 conceded in 11 games)
- Juventude average 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded overall
- Fortaleza average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded overall
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's exceptional home defense and Fortaleza's away scoring struggles suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Juventude have kept clean sheets in 10 of 11 home matches (only 1 goal conceded at home)
- Fortaleza have failed to score in 5 of 11 away matches
- Juventude average 0.6 goals conceded overall
- Fortaleza average 1.0 goals scored overall
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's home defensive record is elite, and Fortaleza's away attack is weak, making a home clean sheet probable.
- Juventude have kept clean sheets in 10 of 11 home matches
- Juventude home goals conceded: 1 in 11 matches
- Fortaleza have failed to score in 5 of 11 away matches
- Fortaleza away goals scored: 6 in 11 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFortaleza not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Juventude average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded
- Fortaleza average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- Juventude home first-half goals: 0.5 per match
- Fortaleza away first-half goals: 0.4 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is also modest for both teams, supporting under 1.5 goals in the second half.
- Juventude average 0.7 second-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded
- Fortaleza average 0.6 second-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded
- Juventude home second-half goals: 0.7 per match
- Fortaleza away second-half goals: 0.6 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and the combined average exceeds 9.5, though variance is high.
- Juventude average 4.6 corners per match, Fortaleza average 6.8 corners per match
- Juventude home corners: 4.6 per match, Fortaleza away corners: 6.8 per match
- Combined average corners: 11.4 per match
- Recent H2H matches have seen high corner counts
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest shots on target averages, suggesting a low total, though this market is less predictable.
- Juventude average 4.3 shots on target per match
- Fortaleza average 4.2 shots on target per match
- Juventude home shots on target: 4.3 per match
- Fortaleza away shots on target: 4.2 per match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined yellow card averages suggest around 4.6 cards, making over 4.5 a coin flip.
- Juventude average 2.2 yellow cards per match
- Fortaleza average 2.4 yellow cards per match
- Juventude average 17 fouls per match
- Fortaleza average 13.8 fouls per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Juventude has been highly reliable when projected to win

Juventude has fulfilled 5 of 7 recent win projections. The average estimated probability was 48.9%, with an expected 3.4 fulfilled predictions, so they outperformed expectation. All five fulfilled predictions came at home, where they are 5 for 5, while both away projections missed.

Recent evidence for Juventude7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Serie B