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Predictions graded

Sport Recife1Athletic Club MG1

HT 0–0Thu 11 Jun 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 19–8On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 8–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Jun 2026, 18:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Sport Recife seek revenge after a 3-1 cup loss to Athletic Club MG, but the data suggests a tight, low-scoring contest.

The best value lies in under 9.5 corners (+14.5 point edge) and over 4.5 cards (+8.7 point edge), while the match winner and double chance markets are fairly priced or offer no edge.

Context

Sport dismissed Roger Silva on 23 March, shortly after the 3-1 home cup defeat to Athletic.
- Márcio Goiano was confirmed as permanent manager on 16 April after a seven-game interim spell.
- The club's official preview stressed 'humility' against Athletic, showing they are not taking the rematch lightly.
Home record in Serie B: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
- Only one home defeat, but three of the six home games were decided by a single goal.
- They have kept two home clean sheets, but conceded in four of six.
Away record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
- They scored 1.6 goals per away game but were shut out twice.
- Three of their five away matches had under 2.5 goals.
Athletic beat Sport 3-1 away in the Copa do Brasil on 18 March 2026.
- Athletic led 1-0 at half-time and added two more after the break.
- Sport had 66% possession but managed only three shots on target.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sport Recife's strong league position and home form, combined with Athletic's recent dip in results, give the hosts a clear edge, though the H2H upset adds a note of caution.
- Sport Recife are top of Serie B with 22 points from 11 matches, winning 6 and losing only 1.
- At home in Serie B, Sport have 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, scoring 9 and conceding 5 in 6 matches.
- Athletic Club MG are 10th with 17 points, and their away record is 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, conceding 7 in 5 away games.
- Sport's last 5 Serie B matches: W-W-L-W-W, while Athletic's last 5: W-D-D-D-L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSport RecifeEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sport's resilience this season, especially at home, makes them very unlikely to lose; Athletic's away form is not strong enough to consistently beat top sides.
- Sport Recife have lost only 1 of 11 Serie B matches this season.
- At home, Sport have lost only 1 of 6, with 3 wins and 2 draws.
- Athletic Club MG have won only 2 of 5 away matches, with 2 draws and 1 loss.
- Sport's overall goal difference is +8, while Athletic's is +2.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSport Recife or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sport's tendency to start slowly at home and Athletic's decent first-half resilience on the road point to a level score at the break.
- Sport Recife led at half-time in only 27% of their last 15 matches, trailing in 20%.
- Athletic Club MG led at half-time in 40% of their last 15 matches, but their away first-half record is less dominant.
- In Sport's 6 home Serie B matches, half-time results: 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss.
- In Athletic's 5 away Serie B matches, half-time results: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sport's pattern of growing into games at home, combined with Athletic's tendency to fade after level first halves, makes a draw-to-win scenario plausible but not highly probable.
- Sport Recife have drawn at half-time in 7 of their last 15 matches, and won 6 of those 7 second halves.
- Athletic Club MG have drawn at half-time in 6 of their last 15 matches, losing 3 of those second halves.
- Sport's home matches often see them improve after the break: 3 of 6 home games were draws at HT, with 2 turning into wins.
- Athletic's away matches: 2 draws at HT, both ended in draws.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Sport RecifeEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low-scoring profiles in the league, and Sport's solid defense at home suggests a tight contest, likely staying under 2.5 goals.
- Sport Recife's Serie B matches average 2.0 total goals (15 scored, 7 conceded in 11 games).
- Athletic Club MG's Serie B matches average 2.18 total goals (13 scored, 11 conceded in 11 games).
- In Sport's 6 home Serie B matches, total goals average 2.33 (9 scored, 5 conceded).
- Athletic's 5 away matches average 3.0 total goals, but 3 of their last 5 overall matches had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sport's defensive record is strong, and Athletic's away scoring has been inconsistent; the revenge narrative may tighten Sport's defense further, making a clean sheet likely.
- Sport Recife have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 Serie B matches, conceding only 7 goals.
- At home, Sport have conceded in 4 of 6 matches, but kept 2 clean sheets.
- Athletic Club MG have failed to score in 3 of 11 Serie B matches, and in 2 of 5 away matches.
- In the only recent H2H, Athletic scored 3, but that was a cup match with different context.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, with Sport particularly stingy before the break; a cautious start is expected given the stakes.
- Sport Recife average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- Athletic Club MG average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- In Sport's last 5 Serie B matches, first-half goals: 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (total 2 in 5 matches).
- In Athletic's last 5 Serie B matches, first-half goals: 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 (total 2 in 5 matches).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be more active after the break, and with Sport pushing for a win, the second half could see at least two goals.
- Sport Recife score 67% of their goals in the second half (based on first-half avg 0.5 vs total avg 1.7).
- Athletic Club MG concede 55% of their goals in the second half (first-half conceded avg 0.5 vs total 1.1).
- In Sport's last 5 Serie B matches, second-half goals: 1, 0, 1, 2, 2 (avg 1.2).
- In Athletic's last 5 Serie B matches, second-half goals: 1, 1, 0, 1, 1 (avg 0.8).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sport's defensive solidity gives them a chance to shut out Athletic, but the visitors' ability to score in most away games makes a home clean sheet less than likely.
- Sport Recife have kept 2 clean sheets in 6 home Serie B matches.
- Athletic Club MG have failed to score in 2 of 5 away Serie B matches.
- Sport's overall clean sheet rate is 45% (5/11) in the league.
- Athletic's away goals scored average is 1.6, but they were shut out by Nautico and Cuiaba on the road.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAthletic Club MG not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sport's home scoring rate is decent, and Athletic's away defense is not impenetrable; the hosts are likely to find the net at least twice given their motivation.
- Sport Recife have scored 9 goals in 6 home Serie B matches, averaging 1.5 per game.
- They scored 2+ goals in 3 of those 6 home matches.
- Athletic Club MG have conceded 7 goals in 5 away matches, averaging 1.4 conceded per game.
- In the only H2H at this venue, Sport scored 1 goal.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSport Recife over 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
While recent totals are mixed, both teams' season averages suggest a moderate corner count, and the under 9.5 line offers value given their typical output.
- Sport Recife average 4.1 corners per match in their last 15, conceding 6.9 opponent corners (total avg 11.0).
- Athletic Club MG average 3.7 corners per match, conceding 6.1 opponent corners (total avg 9.8).
- In Sport's last 5 Serie B matches with corner data, total corners: 9, 5, 20, 11, 15 (avg 12.0, but skewed by one 20).
- In Athletic's last 5 Serie B matches with corner data, total corners: 15, 8, 10, 12, 11 (avg 11.2).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The revenge narrative and high stakes should lead to a physical contest, pushing the total cards above the line, supported by Sport's recent card trends.
- Sport Recife average 3.0 yellow cards per match in their last 15, with opponents averaging 3.1 (total avg 6.1).
- Athletic Club MG average 2.6 yellow cards per match, with opponents averaging 2.1 (total avg 4.7).
- In the only recent H2H, card data is unavailable, but the match context suggests high tension.
- Sport's last 5 Serie B matches: total cards 8, 5, 6, 6, 5 (avg 6.0).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 1W

L1-3Sport RecifevAthletic ClubMar 18, 2026COP

4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Sport Recife Promotion	11	6	4	1	15-7	22	WWLWW
10	Athletic Club MG	11	4	5	2	13-11	17	WWDDD

5pt gap between teamsSport Recife leads the league

Recent Form

Sport Recife

W2-0Nautico RecifeMay 30SER

L0-2Fortaleza ECMay 28COP

W1-0JuventudeMay 23SER

W2-1Fortaleza ECMay 21COP

L1-2CRBMay 17SER

W3-1Ponte PretaMay 9SER

W1-0ASAMay 7COP

W2-0CearaMay 3SER

L0-2Fortaleza ECApr 30COP

W1-0NovorizontinoApr 25SER

D0-0America MineiroApr 18SER

W5-0MaranhãoApr 16COP

D2-2AvaiApr 11SER

W3-0RetrôApr 9COP

W2-1LondrinaApr 4SER

Athletic Club MG

W1-0Fortaleza ECMay 30SER

W2-1Botafogo SPMay 25SER

D1-1JuventudeMay 17SER

L2-3InternacionalMay 12COP

D0-0CuiabaMay 9SER

D1-1Vila NovaMay 4SER

L0-1Nautico RecifeApr 27SER

L1-2InternacionalApr 22COP

L1-2NovorizontinoApr 19SER

W3-2CRBApr 12SER

D1-1America MineiroApr 5SER

D1-1CriciumaApr 2SER

W2-1Ponte PretaMar 22SER

W3-1Sport RecifeMar 18COP

W2-0Ypiranga-RSMar 11COP

Squad & Injuries

Sport Recife

48 available

Attackers11

Midfielders17

Defenders14

Goalkeeper6

Athletic Club MG

43 available

Attackers12

Midfielders15

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 1.5

Under 2.5

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Sport Recife

Sport Recife or Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 1.5

Over 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sport Recife

Athletic Club MG

Squad & Injuries

Sport Recife

Athletic Club MG