Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Goias0Juventude1

HT 0–0Wed 19 Aug 2026, 00:35 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 23:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Juventude to win at 3.30 is the only clear value bet, with a +10 point edge over the market.

Avoid Goiás or Draw (1.30) and Under 2.5 goals (1.45), as both are heavily overpriced relative to our model. The match is likely low-scoring, but the odds offer no cushion on those markets.

Context

Juventude have won 3 of 10 away matches in Série B.
- They lost 4-2 at Botafogo SP on 24 July.
- They drew 0-0 at Náutico on 5 July.
Goiás lost 0-3 to Operário-PR at home on 21 June.
- They lost 0-4 to Novorizontino at home on 10 June.
- They lost 0-1 to Criciúma at home on 15 August.
Juventude have conceded 12 goals in 22 matches.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets this season.
- They have conceded only 0.2 first-half goals per game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Lean

Goias or Draw

1.30fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Goias' home record is solid but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have modest scoring records and Juventude's strong defense (0.5 conceded/game) supports a low-scoring affair.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Juventude's defensive solidity and Goias' inconsistent attack make it likely at least one team fails to score.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.22fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half goal averages, making a low-scoring first half likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juventude's superior league position and recent head-to-head win give them a slight edge, though Goias' historical home advantage keeps this from being a high-confidence pick.
- Juventude are 2nd with 39 points, 7 points ahead of Goias (9th, 32 points).
- Juventude have won 11 of 22 matches, while Goias have won 9 of 22.
- Juventude won the reverse fixture 2-0 in April 2026.
- Goias have lost 3 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJuventudeEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Goias' solid home record and Juventude's mediocre away form make the home side avoiding defeat likely.
- Goias have won 6 of 10 home matches this season.
- Goias have only lost 3 home matches all season.
- Juventude have won only 3 of 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostGoias or DrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of half-time draws for both teams makes a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Goias have drawn at half-time in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- Juventude have drawn at half-time in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams average 0.5 first-half goals scored.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A full-time draw is possible given the teams' similar strengths, but the low draw rates make this a low-probability pick.
- Goias have drawn 5 of 22 matches.
- Juventude have drawn 6 of 22 matches.
- Both teams have a tendency to draw at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest scoring records, and Juventude's strong defense suggests a low-scoring affair.
- Goias average 0.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Juventude average 1.1 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match.
- Juventude have kept 8 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- Goias have scored 10 goals in 10 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's defensive solidity and Goias' inconsistent attack make it likely at least one team fails to score.
- Juventude have conceded only 12 goals in 22 matches.
- Goias have failed to score in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- Juventude have kept clean sheets in 8 matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half goal averages, making a low-scoring first half likely.
- Goias average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Juventude average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.2 conceded.
- Juventude have trailed at half-time in only 13% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring trends suggest more goals after the interval, but the overall low-scoring nature of both teams limits confidence.
- Goias have scored 60% of their goals in the second half.
- Juventude have scored 55% of their goals in the second half.
- Both teams have shown a tendency to improve after the break.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are near the 9.5 line, making this a coin-flip with no strong edge.
- Goias average 5.2 corners per match and concede 5.2.
- Juventude average 4.5 corners per match and concede 4.5.
- Combined average corners per match is 9.7.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages are slightly below the line, but variance in officiating makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Goias average 2.2 yellow cards per match.
- Juventude average 2.1 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards is 4.3.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 77% leaves no cushion vs our 60% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Juventude has been highly reliable when projected to win

Juventude has fulfilled 5 of 7 win predictions, a 71% success rate. The average estimated probability was 48.9%, with an expected 3.4 fulfilled predictions, so they outperformed expectations. Notably, all 5 fulfilled predictions came at home, while both away predictions missed.

Recent evidence for Juventude7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Serie B