Serie BFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

CRB AL2Sport Recife1

HT 1–0Wed 16 Sept 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–191%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 22–11On targetOn target 8–3CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 16:01 · Europe/Bucharest

CRB AL vs Sport Recife is a tight G-6 battle with key absences on both sides, but the market overvalues CRB's home advantage and goal expectations.

Avoid betting on CRB to win, double chance, or over 0.5 first-half goals, as the odds offer no value relative to our model's estimates.

Context

CRB is 8th with 42 points and Sport Recife is 9th with 41 points in Serie B.
CRB's recent home record includes wins over America Mineiro (3-1 on 2026-09-05) and Criciuma (2-1 on 2026-08-30), and a draw with Novorizontino (0-0 on 2026-08-16). Sport Recife's away form has been poor, with losses to Ceara (1-2 on 2026-09-05), Novorizontino (1-2 on 2026-08-28), and Avai (1-2 on 2026-08-19). This contrast suggests CRB may control the match at home.
- CRB won 3-1 at home against America Mineiro on 2026-09-05.
- CRB won 2-1 at home against Criciuma on 2026-08-30.
- Sport Recife lost 1-2 away to Ceara on 2026-09-05.
- Sport Recife lost 1-2 away to Novorizontino on 2026-08-28.
CRB left-back Lucas Lovat is suspended after his red card nine minutes into the 3-0 loss at Operário-PR on 9 September.
CRB must change its left-side defensive selection and coverage for this match. The automatic suspension removes Lovat from the left-back role, forcing a replacement who may offer different positioning or support in build-up. Without a named deputy in the evidence, the exact adjustment remains uncertain, but the left side will be reshaped against Sport's attacking movements.
- Lucas Lovat was sent off nine minutes into CRB’s 3-0 loss at Operário-PR on 9 September.
- Ge reports that the dismissal carries an automatic suspension for the Sport match.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 15:59 · Europe/BucharestGe: CRB selection update for Sportge.globo.com · 13 Sep 2026Agora Alagoas: CRB loss at Operário-PRagoraalagoas.com · 10 Sep 2026
CRB are eighth with 42 points after the Operário-PR defeat, while Sport are ninth with 41 points, two points behind sixth-placed Operário-PR.
The head-to-head result directly affects each side's access pursuit and raises the strategic importance of the fixture. Both teams are immediately below the Série B access places, so a win would move one closer to the top six while a loss could widen the gap. The match carries added weight because the points are taken directly from a rival in the same part of the table.
- CRB are eighth with 42 points after the Operário-PR defeat.
- Sport are ninth with 41 points, two points behind sixth-placed Operário-PR.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 15:59 · Europe/BucharestGe: CRB selection update for Sportge.globo.com · 13 Sep 2026Ge: Sport transfer-window updatege.globo.com · 12 Sep 2026
Sport Recife is 9th with 41 points, but their away record is 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses.
Sport Recife has scored 12 and conceded 12 in 13 away games, showing they are less effective away from home. Their recent away losses to Ceara, Novorizontino, and Avai highlight this weakness. CRB's home record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses with 23 goals scored suggests they can exploit Sport Recife's away vulnerability.
- Sport Recife's away record: 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses in 13 matches.
- Sport Recife has scored 12 and conceded 12 away from home.
- CRB's home record: 6 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses in 13 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

CRB AL

1.79fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 56%

0.0ppshort

Despite the predictor's 42% estimate, the market's 56% implied probability overvalues CRB, creating no value on the home win.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

CRB AL or Draw

1.21fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

The double chance price is far too short relative to the predictor's 68% estimate, offering no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

CRB's home matches average 3.0 total goals, and both teams have moderate scoring rates, making over 2.5 plausible.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring and conceding patterns, suggesting a high likelihood of both teams finding the net.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, with CRB particularly strong early, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CRB's stronger home form and recent results give them a slight edge, while Sport's away inconsistency and coaching transition reduce their chances.
- CRB AL home record: 6W 3D 4L, 23 goals scored, 16 conceded in 13 home matches
- Sport Recife away record: 4W 4D 5L, 12 goals scored, 12 conceded in 13 away matches
- CRB AL last 5 form: LWWLW (9 points), Sport Recife last 5 form: WLLWL (6 points)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCRB ALEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CRB's home advantage and Sport's away struggles make a home win or draw the most likely outcome.
- CRB AL home record: 6W 3D 4L, 23 goals scored, 16 conceded in 13 home matches
- Sport Recife away record: 4W 4D 5L, 12 goals scored, 12 conceded in 13 away matches
- CRB AL last 5 form: LWWLW (9 points), Sport Recife last 5 form: WLLWL (6 points)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCRB AL or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CRB's strong first-half record and home advantage give them a slight edge to lead at the break.
- CRB AL leading at half time in 67% of matches
- Sport Recife leading at half time in 40% of matches
- CRB AL average first half goals: 0.9, Sport Recife average first half goals: 0.7
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonCRB ALEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CRB's tendency to lead at half-time and their home advantage support a home win in both halves, though the probability remains modest.
- CRB AL leading at half time in 67% of matches
- CRB AL home record: 6W 3D 4L
- Sport Recife away record: 4W 4D 5L
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonCRB AL / CRB ALEstimated chance28%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates, and CRB's home games tend to be higher-scoring, making over 2.5 goals plausible.
- CRB AL average goals per match: 1.4, goals conceded: 1.3
- Sport Recife average goals per match: 1.3, goals conceded: 1.2
- CRB AL home matches: 23 goals scored, 16 conceded in 13 games (avg 3.0 total goals)
- Sport Recife away matches: 12 goals scored, 12 conceded in 13 games (avg 1.85 total goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, suggesting a high likelihood of both teams finding the net.
- CRB AL average goals scored: 1.4, goals conceded: 1.3
- Sport Recife average goals scored: 1.3, goals conceded: 1.2
- CRB AL home matches: 23 goals scored, 16 conceded in 13 games
- Sport Recife away matches: 12 goals scored, 12 conceded in 13 games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, with CRB particularly strong early, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- CRB AL average first half goals: 0.9, first half goals conceded: 0.5
- Sport Recife average first half goals: 0.7, first half goals conceded: 0.5
- CRB AL leading at half time in 67% of matches, Sport Recife leading at half time in 40%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates are moderate, but the match's competitive nature could lead to more goals after the break.
- CRB AL average total goals: 1.4, first half goals: 0.9, implying second half goals: 0.5
- Sport Recife average total goals: 1.3, first half goals: 0.7, implying second half goals: 0.6
- Combined average second half goals: 1.1
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 5 corners per match, suggesting a total above 9.5 corners is achievable.
- CRB AL average corners per match: 5.3
- Sport Recife average corners per match: 5.5
- Combined average corners: 10.8
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high volume of shots, making over 25.5 total shots a reasonable expectation.
- CRB AL average shots per match: 18.4
- Sport Recife average shots per match: 15.5
- Combined average shots: 33.9
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 25.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and the competitive nature of the match could lead to more cards.
- CRB AL average yellow cards per match: 1.7, red cards: 0.5
- Sport Recife average yellow cards per match: 2.1, red cards: 0.3
- Combined average cards: 4.6
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 56% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

CRB AL has struggled to clear 4.5 cards in recent matches

CRB AL has fulfilled 3 of 7 comparable over 4.5 cards projections. The average estimated probability was 62.1%, but only 43% of those predictions matched, with the current 52% probability sitting below the historical range. At home, just 1 of 4 such projections succeeded, while away they hit 2 of 3.

Recent evidence for CRB AL7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Serie B