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Predictions graded

Fortaleza2Sport Recife1

HT 1–0Sun 28 Jun 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–233%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jun 2026, 18:50 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight, low-scoring promotion battle is expected, with value on the first-half draw at 2.10 (60% estimate vs. 48% implied).

Avoid Fortaleza to win at 1.88 due to negative value, and lean under 2.5 goals given Sport’s defensive away record.

Context

Sport sacked Roger Silva on 23 March and made Márcio Goiano permanent on 16 April.
- After the 19 June draw, Goiano was booed and said his future is 'a decisão da direção' (the board's decision).
- Sport are third in Serie B and need points to stay in the automatic promotion spots, raising the stakes.
De Pena received his third yellow card in the 1-1 draw with Atlético-GO on 19 June.
- He is a regular starter in Sport's midfield, and his suspension forces a change in the lineup.
- Sport do regain right-back Madson from suspension, but the midfield loss is more disruptive.
Fortaleza's home record in Serie B: 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, with 12 goals scored and 7 conceded.
- The 0-3 loss to América Mineiro on 16 June was their worst home defeat of the season.
- Fortaleza have scored in five of six home games, showing they can recover attacking form.
Sport's away record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses, with 6 goals scored and only 2 conceded.
- All six of Sport's away games have finished with under 2.5 goals.
- Sport have kept four clean sheets in six away matches, showing a clear defensive structure.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fortaleza or Draw

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Fortaleza's strong home form (4-1-1) and H2H dominance (3 wins in last 5) combine with Sport's coach pressure and key suspension to make a home win or draw highly likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fortaleza's strong home form (4-1-1) and H2H edge (3 wins in last 5) combine with Sport's coach pressure and key suspension to tilt the match in Fortaleza's favor, though Sport's unbeaten away record adds caution.
- Fortaleza home record: 4W-1D-1L, 12 goals scored, 7 conceded in 6 Serie B matches
- Sport Recife away record: 3W-3D-0L, 6 goals scored, 2 conceded in 6 Serie B matches
- H2H last 5: Fortaleza 3 wins, Sport 1 win, 1 draw; Fortaleza won last home H2H 2-0
- Sport coach under pressure after boos, midfielder De Pena suspended
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFortalezaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fortaleza's home strength and H2H dominance, coupled with Sport's off-field turmoil, make a home win or draw highly likely, with Sport's unbeaten away record suggesting a draw is a real possibility.
- Fortaleza home record: 4W-1D-1L, 12 goals scored, 7 conceded in 6 Serie B matches
- Sport Recife away record: 3W-3D-0L, 6 goals scored, 2 conceded in 6 Serie B matches
- H2H last 5: Fortaleza 3 wins, Sport 1 win, 1 draw; Fortaleza won last home H2H 2-0
- Sport coach under pressure after boos, midfielder De Pena suspended
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFortaleza or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The strong tendency for draws at half-time in H2H (4 of 5) and both teams' low first-half scoring and solid defending make a stalemate at the break the most likely outcome.
- Fortaleza first half record: 40% leading, 27% trailing, 33% drawing at half-time
- Sport Recife first half record: 33% leading, 13% trailing, 54% drawing at half-time
- H2H last 5: half-time results: 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0 (4 draws, 1 home lead)
- Both teams average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.2-0.3 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fortaleza's pattern of breaking deadlocks in the second half at home, combined with H2H instances of draw/Fortaleza, offers a speculative but plausible HT-FT double, though Sport's resilience away lowers confidence.
- Fortaleza home Serie B: 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; 2 wins came after drawing at half-time
- Sport Recife away Serie B: 3 wins, 3 draws; 2 draws were 0-0 at half-time
- H2H last 5: 2 matches were draw at HT and Fortaleza won at FT
- Fortaleza tends to score more in second half at home
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / FortalezaEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sport's extremely low-scoring away games (all 6 under 2.5) and Fortaleza's moderate home scoring, combined with a H2H trend of low-scoring affairs, point to a tight match with fewer than 3 goals.
- Fortaleza home Serie B: 12 goals in 6 matches (2.0 per game), but 4 of 6 home games had under 2.5 goals
- Sport Recife away Serie B: 6 goals in 6 matches (1.0 per game), all 6 away games had under 2.5 goals
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had under 2.5 goals
- Fortaleza overall averages: 1.3 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sport's defensive solidity on the road (only 2 conceded in 6 away games) and the H2H pattern of at least one team failing to score in 4 of 5 meetings suggest a clean sheet for one side is more likely than both scoring.
- Sport Recife away Serie B: 6 goals scored, 2 conceded in 6 matches; kept 4 clean sheets
- Fortaleza home Serie B: 12 goals scored, 7 conceded in 6 matches; kept 2 clean sheets
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 1 of 5 matches
- Sport Recife overall: 0.7 goals conceded per game, Fortaleza 1.0 conceded per game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fortaleza's consistent home scoring (5 of 6 games) and historical success against Sport (scored in 4 of last 5 H2H) make it unlikely that Sport will keep a clean sheet, despite their strong away defensive record.
- Fortaleza home Serie B: scored in 5 of 6 matches, averaging 2.0 goals per game
- Sport Recife away Serie B: conceded in only 2 of 6 matches, but those were against weaker attacks
- H2H last 5: Sport kept clean sheet in only 1 of 5 matches
- Fortaleza scored 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFortaleza to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average only 0.5 first-half goals and have strong first-half defensive records, with the H2H showing 0 or 1 first-half goal in all 5 recent meetings, making a low-scoring first half highly probable.
- Fortaleza first half goals: 0.5 per game overall, 0.3 conceded; only 40% leading at half-time
- Sport Recife first half goals: 0.5 per game overall, 0.2 conceded; only 33% leading at half-time
- H2H last 5: first half goals: 0, 0, 1, 0, 0 (all under 1.5)
- Fortaleza home Serie B: first half goals in 3 of 6 matches, but never more than 1
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and the H2H has seen 3 of 5 matches with over 1.5 second-half goals, but the overall low-scoring nature of this fixture keeps confidence low.
- Fortaleza home Serie B: 7 of 12 goals scored in second half
- Sport Recife away Serie B: 4 of 6 goals scored in second half
- H2H last 5: second half goals: 2, 3, 1, 1, 0 (3 of 5 over 1.5)
- Fortaleza overall: 1.3 goals per game, Sport 1.3 goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fortaleza's ability to shut out Sport in 2 of the last 5 H2H, combined with Sport's occasional away blanks, gives a low-probability chance of a home win to nil, but Sport's overall defensive strength makes it unlikely.
- Fortaleza home Serie B: 2 clean sheets in 6 matches
- Sport Recife away Serie B: failed to score in 2 of 6 matches
- H2H last 5: Fortaleza won to nil in 2 of 5 matches
- Sport Recife overall: 0.7 goals conceded per game, but Fortaleza scored 2+ in 3 of last 5 H2H
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance30%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fortaleza's home matches average 10 total corners, and the H2H has seen high corner counts in 3 of 5 meetings, but inconsistent corner data and missing stats in some matches reduce confidence.
- Fortaleza home corners: average 5.0 per game, opponent corners 5.0 (total 10.0)
- Sport Recife away corners: average 4.1 per game, opponent corners 5.0 (total 9.1)
- H2H last 5 with corner data: total corners 14, 5, 5, 12, 11 (3 of 5 over 9.5)
- Fortaleza recent home matches: 7, 5, 8, 3, 4 corners (mixed)
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high card averages (Fortaleza 2.8, Sport 3.1) and the H2H has been feisty with 3 of 5 matches exceeding 5.5 cards, suggesting a physical derby with multiple bookings.
- Fortaleza averages 2.8 yellow cards per game, 1.3 red cards (high discipline issues)
- Sport Recife averages 3.1 yellow cards per game, 1.0 red cards
- H2H last 5 with card data: total cards 7, 7, 7, 4, 2 (3 of 5 over 5.5)
- Fortaleza home matches: 4, 4, 3, 4, 2 yellow cards in recent games
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W0-2Sport RecifevFortaleza ECMay 28, 2026COP

W1-2Fortaleza ECvSport RecifeMay 21, 2026COP

L2-0Fortaleza ECvSport RecifeApr 30, 2026COP

L1-0Fortaleza ECvSport RecifeSep 27, 2025SA

D0-0Sport RecifevFortaleza ECApr 26, 2025SA

Fortaleza: 2 clean sheetsSport Recife: 3 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Fortaleza	14	6	4	4	16-15	22	DLWLW
3	Sport Recife Promotion Play-offs	14	6	7	1	17-9	25	DDDWW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Fortaleza

D1-1CRBJun 21SER

L0-3America MineiroJun 16SER

W1-0Nautico RecifeJun 9SER

L1-2VitoriaJun 6COP

L1-2VitoriaJun 3COP

L0-1Athletic ClubMay 30SER

W2-0Sport RecifeMay 28COP

W3-0LondrinaMay 23SER

L1-2Sport RecifeMay 21COP

L1-2CearaMay 17SER

D0-0CRBMay 14COP

D0-0AvaiMay 10SER

W2-1ConfiançaMay 7COP

W4-1GoiasMay 2SER

W2-0Sport RecifeApr 30COP

Sport Recife

D1-1Atletico GoianienseJun 19SER

D0-0São BernardoJun 14SER

D1-1Athletic ClubJun 11SER

W2-0Nautico RecifeMay 30SER

L0-2Fortaleza ECMay 28COP

W1-0JuventudeMay 23SER

W2-1Fortaleza ECMay 21COP

L1-2CRBMay 17SER

W3-1Ponte PretaMay 9SER

W1-0ASAMay 7COP

W2-0CearaMay 3SER

L0-2Fortaleza ECApr 30COP

W1-0NovorizontinoApr 25SER

D0-0America MineiroApr 18SER

W5-0MaranhãoApr 16COP

Squad & Injuries

Fortaleza

37 available

Attackers8

Midfielders14

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Sport Recife

49 available

Attackers11

Midfielders18

Defenders14

Goalkeeper6

Fortaleza2Sport Recife1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Fortaleza or Draw

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Fortaleza

@ 1.80

@ 1.13

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Fortaleza

Sport Recife

Squad & Injuries

Fortaleza

Sport Recife