St Patrick's2Shamrock Rovers0

HT 2–0Fri 11 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–1023%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 10–10On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 1–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 23:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Shamrock Rovers are the value pick in this title race six-pointer, with the away win at 3.25 offering an 11-point edge (42% model vs 31% implied).

The double chance of Draw or Shamrock Rovers at 1.67 also provides value, while goals and clean sheet markets are best avoided due to efficient or unfavorable pricing.

Context

Shamrock Rovers are the league leaders and St Patrick's are their closest challengers.
The six-point gap means a win for St Patrick's would cut the deficit to three points, while a Shamrock Rovers victory would extend their lead to nine. Both teams have played 29 matches, so this is a direct contest for the top spot.
- Shamrock Rovers: 56 points, rank 1.
- St Patrick's: 50 points, rank 2.
- Points gap: 6.
Shamrock Rovers lead St Patrick's by six points with both clubs having played 29 league matches.
A St Patrick's win reduces the gap to three points, while a Shamrock Rovers win extends it to nine. The fixture therefore carries direct title-race consequences for both sides.
- St Patrick's official table lists Shamrock Rovers first on 56 points from 29 matches.
- The same table lists St Patrick's second on 50 points from 29 matches.
- St Patrick's official fixture listing confirms Shamrock Rovers visit Richmond Park on 11 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 23:16 · Europe/BucharestSt Patrick's Athletic: League Tablewww.stpatsfc.com · 9 Sep 2026
St Patrick's and Shamrock Rovers have met five times in the last year across league and cup competitions.
St Patrick's won the most recent meeting 3-2 at home in the FAI Cup on 16 August 2026, but Shamrock Rovers won the last league encounter 1-0 on 29 May 2026. The overall split suggests neither team has a clear psychological edge, and the outcome may hinge on current form and tactical adjustments.
- 16 Aug 2026: St Patrick's 3-2 Shamrock Rovers (FAI Cup).
- 29 May 2026: Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's (Premier Division).
- 10 Apr 2026: St Patrick's 0-1 Shamrock Rovers (Premier Division).
Shamrock Rovers defender D. Cleary returned against Derry City and trained through the week.
Cleary's availability restores a defensive selection option for the away side. He started none of the five recent fixtures with available lineups, so his role remains uncertain.
- Shamrock Rovers said Dan Cleary made a return against Derry City.
- Stephen Bradley said Cleary came through the match well and trained all week.
- D. Cleary started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 23:16 · Europe/BucharestShamrock Rovers: Team News - Home vs Shelbourne 04-09-26www.shamrockrovers.ie · 3 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shamrock Rovers' superior league position and recent H2H dominance give them a slight edge, though St Patrick's home form and title motivation keep it close.
- Shamrock Rovers lead the table with 56 points from 29 matches, 6 ahead of St Patrick's.
- Shamrock Rovers have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including a 1-0 away win in April 2026.
- St Patrick's have lost 3 of their last 5 home matches in all competitions.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostShamrock RoversEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The away side's strong H2H record and St Patrick's tendency to draw at home support a double chance for Shamrock Rovers or a draw.
- Shamrock Rovers have avoided defeat in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- St Patrick's have drawn 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Shamrock Rovers' away record is 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Shamrock RoversEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half records, and H2H history shows frequent level scores at the break.
- St Patrick's have led at half-time in 40% of recent matches and trailed in 33%.
- Shamrock Rovers have led at half-time in 33% and trailed in 27%.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shamrock Rovers' superior depth and St Patrick's potential fatigue could give the away side an edge after the break.
- Shamrock Rovers have a better second-half goal difference in recent matches.
- St Patrick's may tire after their extra-time cup match six days prior.
- Shamrock Rovers have won the second half in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostShamrock RoversEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Shamrock Rovers win is a plausible sequence given their second-half strength.
- St Patrick's have drawn at half-time in 40% of recent matches.
- Shamrock Rovers have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Shamrock Rovers have a stronger second-half record.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Shamrock RoversEstimated chance22%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' moderate scoring rates and the tight nature of recent H2H encounters suggest a low-scoring match.
- St Patrick's average 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match in recent form.
- Shamrock Rovers average 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match in recent form.
- 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- St Patrick's have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Shamrock Rovers have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with low first-half scoring averages.
- St Patrick's average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Shamrock Rovers average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, only 2 had over 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half may open up as both teams push for a result, but the evidence is not strong.
- St Patrick's average 0.6 second-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Shamrock Rovers average 0.8 second-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Recent H2H matches have seen more goals in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shamrock Rovers' consistent scoring makes a St Patrick's clean sheet unlikely.
- St Patrick's have kept a clean sheet in only 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Shamrock Rovers have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Shamrock Rovers average 1.6 goals per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostShamrock Rovers to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's home scoring record suggests they are likely to find the net.
- Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in only 1 of their last 5 away matches.
- St Patrick's have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- St Patrick's average 1.2 goals per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSt Patrick's to scoreEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest a total near the line, but the away side's low corner count makes this uncertain.
- St Patrick's average 6.3 corners per match and concede 5.2.
- Shamrock Rovers average 3.6 corners per match and concede 4.1.
- Combined average corners in recent matches is around 10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The derby nature and similar card averages suggest a moderate card count, but the line is close.
- St Patrick's average 2.0 yellow cards per match.
- Shamrock Rovers average 2.1 yellow cards per match.
- Recent H2H matches have seen an average of 4.2 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

St Patrick's has fulfilled Over 9.5 corners in 3 of 5 recent matches

St Patrick's has fulfilled Over 9.5 corners in 3 of 5 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 57%, with an expected 2.9 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 3 fulfilled is close to expectation. At home, they fulfilled 3 of 4, while the current probability of 48% is below the historical range of 55-60%.

Recent evidence for St Patrick's5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·Premier Division