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FC ArlandaAFC Eskilstuna

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 15:0031 Oct, 15:00

6Probabilities5Priced5Edges68%Strongest

Strong leanLean

Quick Take

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Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 22:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Second against third in Ettan Norra, two points apart, and AFC Eskilstuna's final decisive run starts here.

Their away record — unbeaten in seven tracked away matches at 3.29 goals a game — makes them the likelier side not to lose, though FC Arlanda's home form and a 0-0 in May temper that. The draw-or-away-win price at 1.48 gives nothing back; AFC Eskilstuna to score two or more at 1.91 is the one quote worth attention.

Context

The fixture has been confirmed as moved to the artificial pitch beside Midgårdsvallen in Märsta, a real change to the playing environment, though no surface comparison or weather detail is available to say which side it favours.

The confirmed venue change places this fixture on the artificial pitch beside Midgårdsvallen in Märsta. That is a direct change to the match environment, so both teams' preparation and venue assumptions need to relate to this pitch. The available information does not identify the originally scheduled surface or any weather conditions, so it does not establish which side benefits.
- The FC Arlanda away fixture has moved to the artificial pitch beside Midgårdsvallen in Märsta.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 22:39 · Europe/BucharestAFC Eskilstuna match previewwww.afc-eskilstuna.se · 29 Oct 2026
That is the only goalless result among the four meetings listed since June 2025, and it is the counterweight to the scoring both sides have shown elsewhere. A single match is not a pattern, and the other three meetings all produced goals. It still shows this fixture can tighten rather than open up.
- The Ettan Norra meeting on 18 May 2026 between AFC Eskilstuna and FC Arlanda finished 0-0.
- The other three meetings listed since June 2025 produced goals, including a 4-1 friendly in March 2026.
FC Arlanda's tracked home scoring is front-loaded: 1.43 goals per game before the interval against 0.57 afterwards, while they concede 1.14 second-half goals and only 0.29 in first halves. That points to a fast home start and a more open closing period. Seven matches is a small sample, so it is a tendency rather than a settled pattern.
- FC Arlanda's seven tracked home matches ran from 9 August to 17 October 2026, producing 3W-1D-3L.
- They averaged 1.43 first-half goals for and 0.29 against, compared with 0.57 second-half goals for and 1.14 against.
- They scored in six of those seven home matches and conceded in five.
That away run is the strongest single number in the fixture: 3.29 goals per away match across seven games, with at least one goal in each. The 4-0 win at Vasalund and the 4-2 win at Järfälla show the ceiling, though they also conceded 1.14 per away match. FC Arlanda's two clean sheets in seven tracked home games are the counterweight.
- AFC Eskilstuna's seven tracked away matches ran from 9 August to 18 October 2026, producing 6W-1D-0L with 3.29 goals for and 1.14 against per match.
- They scored in all seven and kept two clean sheets.
- The 4-0 win at Vasalund on 18 October 2026 and the 4-2 win at Järfälla on 26 September 2026 were their two most recent tracked away wins.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Both sides have shown they can score and concede in the tracked window, with AFC Eskilstuna particularly prolific away.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.69

BetBugs 59% · Market 64.5%

−5.5ppshort

The tracked goal totals for both teams point to an open game with enough scoring chances to clear two and a half goals.

Double Chance First HalfUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Arlanda or Draw

1.38fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 72.5%

−6.5ppshort

FC Arlanda have been strong in first halves at home, making it more likely they lead or are level at the interval than trail.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result2 outcomes · top 68%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
AFC Eskilstuna's strong away record and higher league position make them the likelier side to avoid defeat, with the draw a live outcome given the tight table.
- AFC Eskilstuna are 2nd with 53 points from 28 and have a full-season away record of 9W-3D-2L.
- In the tracked window AFC Eskilstuna are unbeaten away (6W-1D-0L) with 3.29 goals scored per away match.
- FC Arlanda are 3rd with 51 points and a home record of 7W-4D-3L.
- The most recent league meeting between the teams finished 0-0.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or AFC EskilstunaMarket price1.48Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
FC Arlanda have been strong in first halves at home, making it more likely they lead or are level at the interval than trail.
- FC Arlanda average 1.43 first-half goals for and 0.29 against in tracked home matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna average 1.0 first-half goal for and 0.71 against in tracked away matches.
- FC Arlanda scored in the first half in five of their last six tracked matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna have scored in the first half in three of their last six tracked matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfFC Arlanda or DrawMarket price1.38Estimated chance66%

Goals4 outcomes · top 66%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both sides have shown they can score and concede in the tracked window, with AFC Eskilstuna particularly prolific away.
- FC Arlanda have both teams scored in 5 of 7 tracked home matches and scored in 6 of 7.
- AFC Eskilstuna have both teams scored in 5 of 7 tracked away matches and scored in all 7.
- FC Arlanda average 2.0 goals for and 1.43 against at home in the tracked window.
- AFC Eskilstuna average 3.29 goals for and 1.14 against away in the tracked window.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.50Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
The tracked goal totals for both teams point to an open game with enough scoring chances to clear two and a half goals.
- FC Arlanda's tracked home matches average 3.43 total goals (2.0 for, 1.43 against).
- AFC Eskilstuna's tracked away matches average 4.43 total goals (3.29 for, 1.14 against).
- FC Arlanda's last six tracked matches included 3-1, 1-3, 0-3 and 4-2 scorelines.
- AFC Eskilstuna's last six tracked matches included 4-0, 1-3, 2-2 and 4-2 scorelines.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.55Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
AFC Eskilstuna have been consistently high-scoring on the road, making two or more away goals a realistic outcome.
- AFC Eskilstuna scored in all 7 tracked away matches, averaging 3.29 goals per game.
- FC Arlanda conceded in 5 of 7 tracked home matches, averaging 1.43 goals against.
- AFC Eskilstuna scored at least two goals in their two most recent tracked away wins (4-0 and 4-2).
- AFC Eskilstuna's full-season away record includes 41 goals in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalAFC Eskilstuna over 1.5Market price1.91Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AFC Eskilstuna's away matches have produced heavy second-half scoring, and FC Arlanda have conceded after the break at home.
- AFC Eskilstuna average 2.29 second-half goals for and 0.43 against in tracked away matches.
- FC Arlanda average 0.57 second-half goals for and 1.14 against in tracked home matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna scored four second-half goals in their 4-0 away win at Vasalund.
- AFC Eskilstuna scored three second-half goals in their 4-2 away win at Järfälla.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance66%

Prediction history

FC Arlanda: 1/5 recent goals projections matched

1 of 5 comparable goals projections involving FC Arlanda matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for FC Arlanda5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jun·Ettan - Norra

FC Arlanda1-0