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Predictions graded

FC Arlanda1IF Karlstad0

HT 0–0Sat 27 Jun 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges1–233%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Jun 2026, 23:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Draw or IF Karlstad (Double Chance) at 1.43 for a small edge, as Karlstad's unbeaten away record and Arlanda's frequent home draws make this a strong cover.

Avoid the match winner and over 2.5 goals markets, which are efficiently priced. The short turnaround for Karlstad adds risk, but their quality should prevent defeat.

Context

Karlstad's official match page confirms a men's fixture on 24 June 2026.
- The turnaround to 27 June is just three days, with travel to Arlanda.
- No other recent fixture congestion is noted, making this a one-off load spike.
Swedish FA listed Arlanda among clubs with postponed licence reviews on 9 June 2026.
- The case was sent to Disciplinnamnden, indicating a formal disciplinary process.
- The news broke less than three weeks before this match, keeping it fresh.
Karlstad's official 19 June preview stated Bellman was back.
- The same update noted Rhose would be out for six weeks.
- No other key injuries or suspensions are reported for either side.
Arlanda home record: W3 D3 L1, with three draws.
- Karlstad away record: W4 D2 L0, conceding 0.67 goals per game.
- Arlanda have scored in all seven home games, but only nine goals total.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams score early often, with first-half goals in 9 of 13 matches each and very few goalless first halves.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IF Karlstad's strong away form and table-topping position give them a slight edge, though Arlanda's home resilience and the short turnaround for Karlstad prevent higher confidence.
- IF Karlstad are top of the table with 30 points from 13 matches, while FC Arlanda are 3rd with 26 points.
- IF Karlstad have an unbeaten away record this season (W4 D2 L0), conceding only 4 goals in 6 away matches.
- FC Arlanda have won only 3 of 7 home matches, drawing 3 and losing 1, with a modest 9 goals scored at home.
- In the last H2H meeting (Nov 2025), IF Karlstad won 5-3 away at Arlanda.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIF KarlstadEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The double chance covers the two most likely outcomes based on Karlstad's unbeaten away record and Arlanda's frequent home draws.
- IF Karlstad have not lost away this season (W4 D2), while FC Arlanda have drawn 3 of 7 home matches.
- FC Arlanda's home record shows only 3 wins in 7, with a goal difference of +3.
- Combined, the probability of an Arlanda win is low given Karlstad's defensive solidity away (0.67 goals conceded per away game).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or IF KarlstadEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of halftime draws for both sides, combined with their similar first-half scoring rates, points to a likely stalemate at the break.
- FC Arlanda have been drawing at halftime in 6 of 13 matches this season.
- IF Karlstad have been drawing at halftime in 5 of 13 matches.
- In the last 5 matches, Arlanda were level at the break in 3, and Karlstad in 3.
- Both teams have similar first-half goal averages (0.7 vs 0.8), suggesting a balanced start.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Karlstad win is a plausible scenario given Karlstad's strong second-half performances away and Arlanda's tendency to start slowly.
- IF Karlstad have won 4 of 6 away matches, often grinding out results after tight first halves.
- FC Arlanda have drawn at halftime in 6 of 13 matches but have a mixed second-half record at home.
- Karlstad's away resilience (only 4 goals conceded in 6 away games) suggests they can edge a win after a level first half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / IF KarlstadEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent form and H2H history suggest a relatively open game, with both teams capable of scoring, pushing the total over 2.5 goals.
- FC Arlanda's last 5 matches have seen an average of 2.8 total goals, with 3 of 5 going over 2.5.
- IF Karlstad's last 5 matches have averaged 2.6 total goals, with 3 of 5 going over 2.5.
- The last H2H meeting produced 8 goals (5-3), and both teams average over 1.5 goals scored per game this season.
- Both teams have scored in 4 of Arlanda's last 5 and 3 of Karlstad's last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and defensive vulnerabilities in recent matches, making it likely each finds the net.
- Both teams have scored in 4 of FC Arlanda's last 5 matches.
- Both teams have scored in 3 of IF Karlstad's last 5 matches.
- FC Arlanda have scored in 12 of 13 league matches this season; IF Karlstad have scored in 11 of 13.
- The last H2H meeting saw both teams score (5-3).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, with high first-half goal averages and few goalless first halves, making over 0.5 first-half goals very likely.
- FC Arlanda average 0.7 first-half goals per game this season, with a first-half goal in 9 of 13 matches.
- IF Karlstad average 0.8 first-half goals per game, with a first-half goal in 9 of 13 matches.
- In the last 5 matches, Arlanda have scored a first-half goal in 3, and Karlstad in 4.
- Only 2 of Arlanda's 13 matches and 3 of Karlstad's 13 matches have been 0-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be more open after the break, with second-half goal averages supporting over 1.5 goals in the second period.
- FC Arlanda's matches average 1.8 second-half goals this season (total goals minus first-half goals).
- IF Karlstad's matches average 1.6 second-half goals.
- In the last 5 matches, Arlanda have seen over 1.5 second-half goals in 3, and Karlstad in 3.
- The last H2H meeting had 5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's consistent home scoring record makes it unlikely Karlstad will keep a clean sheet, despite their solid away defense.
- FC Arlanda have scored in 12 of 13 league matches this season, including in all 7 home games.
- IF Karlstad have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 5 away matches across all competitions.
- Arlanda average 1.29 goals per home game, and Karlstad concede 0.67 goals per away game on average.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Arlanda to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's home scoring is modest, and Karlstad's away defense is strong, making over 1.5 home goals a borderline call.
- FC Arlanda have scored exactly 1 goal in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- They average 1.29 goals per home game this season, with a high of 2 goals in only 2 of 7 home matches.
- IF Karlstad have conceded more than 1 goal in only 1 of 6 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFC Arlanda over 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's away scoring record is strong, and Arlanda's home defense has shown vulnerability, particularly against top sides.
- IF Karlstad average 1.67 goals per away game this season, scoring at least 2 in 4 of 6 away matches.
- FC Arlanda have conceded 6 goals in 7 home games, but 3 of those came in one match against Karlstad last season.
- Karlstad have scored 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 matches overall.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostIF Karlstad over 1.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 1W

W3-5ArlandavIF KarlstadNov 1, 2025ETT

L3-0IF KarlstadvArlandaMay 29, 2025ETT

5.5 goals/game avg

League Table

Ettan - Norra 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	FC Arlanda	13	7	5	1	22-10	26	WWWLD
1	IF Karlstad	13	9	3	1	22-8	30	DWWDW

4pt gap between teamsIF Karlstad leads the league

Recent Form

FC Arlanda

W2-0JärfällaJun 23SVE

W1-0StocksundJun 18ETT

W3-2JärfällaJun 13ETT

W2-0Assyriska FFJun 7ETT

L2-3Gefle IFJun 1ETT

D0-0FBK KarlstadMay 23ETT

D0-0AFC EskilstunaMay 18ETT

D1-1KarlbergMay 13ETT

D1-1SollentunaMay 9ETT

W2-1PiteåMay 3ETT

W7-1EnköpingApr 24ETT

D0-0Stockholm InternazionaleApr 18ETT

W1-0Umeå FCApr 12ETT

W2-1VasalundApr 3ETT

D2-2SollentunaMar 28FRI

IF Karlstad

D2-2Assyriska FFJun 21ETT

W2-0Gefle IFJun 13ETT

W3-0Eker ÖrebroJun 10SVE

W3-2FBK KarlstadJun 5ETT

D0-0SollentunaMay 30ETT

W2-0Umeå FCMay 24ETT

W5-0VasalundMay 17ETT

W1-0StocksundMay 14ETT

D0-0KarlbergMay 9ETT

L0-2Hammarby TalangMay 2ETT

W2-0AFC EskilstunaApr 26ETT

W2-1JärfällaApr 18ETT

W1-0Stockholm InternazionaleApr 12ETT

W2-1PiteåApr 6ETT

L1-3Skövde AIKMar 21FRI

Squad & Injuries

FC Arlanda

24 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

IF Karlstad

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or IF Karlstad

Draw at half-time / IF Karlstad at full-time

Over 0.5

Yes

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 7 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

FC Arlanda

IF Karlstad

Squad & Injuries

FC Arlanda

IF Karlstad