Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Bahia0Vasco da Gama0

HT 0–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 11–14On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 4–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 14:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Bahia are strong favorites at home against a struggling Vasco side winless in nine away games and unsettled by a new coach and off-field issues.

The safest bet is Bahia or Draw (1.25), while Both Teams to Score (1.70) offers a small edge. Avoid the short-priced Over 0.5 First-Half Goals and any handicap requiring a multi-goal Bahia win.

Context

Pedro Emanuel was appointed on 10 July, exactly 30 days before this match.
- Vasco's last five league results: D-L-L-L-L, with only two goals scored.
- The team has had limited time to implement the new coach's system.
Vasco away record this season: 0W-4D-5L, with 10 goals scored and 17 conceded.
- They have failed to keep a clean sheet in any away league match.
- Only two of nine away matches saw Vasco score more than one goal.
Bahia home record: 4W-5D-2L, with 17 goals scored and 11 conceded.
- They have drawn five of 11 home matches, including against mid-table sides.
- Bahia have scored in 9 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
Last four H2H at Bahia: Bahia won 3, drew 1 (scores: 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 2-1).
- Vasco have not won at Fonte Nova since 2023.
- The last three overall meetings were all won by the home side.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bahia or Draw

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Vasco are winless in 9 away league matches this season, while Bahia have lost only 2 of 11 at home, making the double chance a high-probability safety play.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bahia

1.85fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

Bahia's strong home form and Vasco's poor away record give them a clear edge, but the value is marginal at these odds.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.78fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' match averages and recent H2H trends point toward goals, with Vasco's leaky away defense and Bahia's consistent scoring at home supporting over 2.5 goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Despite both teams' modest first-half scoring averages, the H2H trend and Vasco's tendency to concede early suggest at least one first-half goal is probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bahia's strong home form and Vasco's poor away record, combined with a dominant H2H at this venue, give Bahia a clear edge, though their high draw rate tempers confidence.
- Bahia home record: 4W-5D-2L, 17 GF, 11 GA in 11 home matches this season.
- Vasco away record: 0W-4D-5L, 10 GF, 17 GA in 9 away matches this season.
- H2H last 4 at Bahia: Bahia won 3, drew 1, with scores 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 2-1.
- Vasco form last 5 league matches: D-L-L-L-L, with 2 goals scored and 9 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBahiaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasco's inability to win away and Bahia's solid home form, reinforced by historical dominance in this fixture, make a Bahia win or draw highly probable.
- Bahia home record: only 2 losses in 11 home matches this season.
- Vasco away record: 0 wins in 9 away matches, with 4 draws and 5 losses.
- H2H last 4 at Bahia: Bahia unbeaten (3W-1D).
- Vasco last 5 league matches: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBahia or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring and high draw rates at the break, with the H2H also showing frequent level scores at half-time, making a draw the most likely outcome.
- Bahia home first-half results: led at HT in only 13% of recent matches, drew in 54%.
- Vasco away first-half results: trailed at HT in 47%, drew in 53% of recent matches.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at half-time.
- Bahia first-half goals per home match: 0.5; Vasco first-half goals per away match: 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time is common for both teams, and Bahia's ability to edge wins at home, especially against a struggling Vasco, makes this a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- Bahia home matches: drew at HT in 54% of recent matches, won 36% of home matches overall.
- Vasco away matches: drew at HT in 53%, lost 56% of away matches.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at HT, Bahia won 2 of those matches.
- Bahia's second-half performance: scored 0.8 goals per match, conceded 0.8.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/BahiaEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' match averages and recent H2H trends point toward goals, with Vasco's leaky away defense and Bahia's consistent scoring at home supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Bahia home matches average 2.55 total goals (17 GF, 11 GA in 11 games).
- Vasco away matches average 3.0 total goals (10 GF, 17 GA in 9 games).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Bahia last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net in their respective home/away splits, and the H2H history shows frequent goals at both ends, making BTTS likely.
- Bahia home matches: both teams scored in 7 of 11 (64%).
- Vasco away matches: both teams scored in 7 of 9 (78%).
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 4 of 5.
- Bahia scored in 9 of last 10 home matches; Vasco conceded in all 9 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Despite both teams' modest first-half scoring averages, the H2H trend and Vasco's tendency to concede early suggest at least one first-half goal is probable.
- Bahia home first-half stats: 0.5 goals scored, 0.7 conceded on average in last 15 matches.
- Vasco away first-half stats: 0.5 goals scored, 0.6 conceded on average in last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in 4 of 5 matches.
- Vasco trailed at half-time in 47% of recent matches, Bahia led in only 13%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's high corner generation at home and Vasco's tendency to concede corners in away matches suggest a total above 9.5 is plausible, though data is limited.
- Bahia home matches average 6.8 corners for, opponent corners 5.5 (total ~12.3).
- Vasco away matches average 4.7 corners for, opponent corners 5.1 (total ~9.8).
- Last 5 H2H: corner data unavailable, but Bahia's recent home matches show high corner counts (e.g., 10, 10, 7, 6, 10).
- Bahia's possession-based style (58.3% avg) often leads to more corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' shot-on-target averages in their respective splits hover around 9-10, and recent matches show potential for exceeding 8.5, though consistency is lacking.
- Bahia home matches: average 4.8 shots on target for, opponent 4.5 (total ~9.3).
- Vasco away matches: average 5.5 shots on target for, opponent 5.0 (total ~10.5).
- Recent Bahia home matches: 6, 9, 6, 7, 5 shots on target.
- Recent Vasco away matches: 4, 3, 8, 6, 3 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 cards per match in their respective splits, and recent matches show a tendency to reach this threshold, though it's a borderline call.
- Bahia home matches: average 2.6 yellow cards, opponent 2.4 (total ~5.0).
- Vasco away matches: average 2.4 yellow cards, opponent 2.6 (total ~5.0).
- Recent Bahia home matches: 2, 4, 3, 4, 3 yellow cards.
- Recent Vasco away matches: 1, 2, 4, 3, 3 yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Bahia's narrow home wins and high draw rate make covering a -1 handicap unlikely.

Prediction history

Bahia: Over 9.5 corners has landed in 2 of 5 recent matches

Bahia's Over 9.5 corners prediction has been fulfilled in 2 of 5 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 56%, with an expected 2.8 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment slightly underperformed expectations. Notably, both fulfilled predictions occurred at home, while both away matches missed, suggesting home matches have been more conducive to higher corner counts.

Recent evidence for Bahia5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Serie A