Vitoria0Bahia2

HT 0–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 14–28On targetOn target 2–9CornersCorners 7–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 17:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Vitória or Draw at 1.45 (72% estimated vs 69% implied) and consider Vitória to win at 2.50 (45% vs 40%).

Avoid first-half Under 1.5 goals at 1.38 — the odds imply 72.5% but our model sees only 60%, leaving no value. The derby is expected to be tight, with recent H2H meetings low-scoring and Vitória's home form a key edge.

Context

Vitória home record: 8W 1D 2L, 16 goals scored, 7 conceded in 11 home matches.
- They have kept clean sheets in 5 of those 11 home games.
- Recent home wins include Botafogo (1-0) and Internacional (2-0).
Bahia away record: 4W 4D 3L, 15 goals scored, 17 conceded.
- They have kept only 2 clean sheets away from home.
- Recent away results include a 3-3 draw at Chapecoense and a 3-2 loss at Coritiba.
Last three league H2H: 1-1, 2-1, 2-1.
- First half scores in those matches: 0-0, 0-0, 1-0.
- Vitória won the most recent home derby 2-1 in October 2025.
Injury lists for both Vitória and Bahia are empty.
- No suspension news found in the intel.
- This is a routine availability situation for a derby.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vitoria's strong home form and recent home derby win give them an edge, but Bahia's overall consistency keeps confidence medium.
- Vitoria home record: 8W 1D 2L, 16 goals scored, 7 conceded in 11 home matches
- Bahia away record: 4W 4D 3L, 15 goals scored, 17 conceded in 11 away matches
- Vitoria won last home derby vs Bahia 2-1 (16 Oct 2025)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVitoriaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vitoria's strong home form and Bahia's decent away resilience make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Vitoria home record: 8W 1D 2L (82% unbeaten at home)
- Bahia away record: 4W 4D 3L (73% not losing away)
- H2H last 5: 2 Vitoria wins, 2 Bahia wins, 1 draw
BetBugs · Double ChancelostVitoria or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half lead rates and recent derbies have been level at the break, favoring a draw.
- Vitoria leading at halftime in only 20% of matches, trailing 53%
- Bahia leading at halftime in 20%, trailing 27%
- Last 3 H2H halftime results: D, D, W (Vitoria)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vitoria's home strength and tendency to improve in second half could lead to a draw at halftime and win at full time.
- Vitoria home record: 8W 1D 2L, often winning after halftime
- Bahia away record: 4W 4D 3L, but often drawing at halftime
- Last home derby: Vitoria won 2-1 after 0-0 halftime
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/VitoriaEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent derbies have been tight, and Vitoria's home games tend to be low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Vitoria home matches average 2.09 total goals (16+7 over 11)
- Bahia away matches average 2.91 total goals (15+17 over 11)
- Last 3 H2H meetings: 1-1, 2-1, 2-1 (all under 3.5, two under 2.5)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Vitoria scored in 9 of 11 home matches (82%)
- Bahia scored in 9 of 11 away matches (82%)
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and recent derbies goalless at halftime.
- Vitoria first half goals per match: 0.5, conceded 0.8
- Bahia first half goals per match: 0.6, conceded 0.7
- Last 3 H2H first half scores: 0-0, 0-0, 1-0
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have seen more goals in recent meetings, but overall scoring is moderate, so confidence is low.
- Vitoria average second half goals: 1.0 (1.5 total - 0.5 first half)
- Bahia average second half goals: 0.9 (1.5 total - 0.6 first half)
- H2H last 3 second half goals: 1, 2, 1
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and recent meetings have seen totals around 10 or more.
- Vitoria average corners per match: 4.7, opponent corners: 5.3 (total ~10)
- Bahia average corners per match: 6.6, opponent corners: 5.1 (total ~11.7)
- Last H2H corners: 8-4, 1-8, 7-6 (totals 12, 9, 13)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages exceed 4.5, and derby intensity may increase bookings.
- Vitoria average yellow cards: 2.2, opponent yellow cards: 2.5 (total ~4.7)
- Bahia average yellow cards: 2.7, opponent yellow cards: 2.6 (total ~5.3)
- Derby matches often have higher card counts
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 46.5% vs our 55% estimate, but the edge is thin and first-half markets are volatile; the draw is already the favourite and offers limited value.

Prediction history

Vitoria has been highly reliable when projected for Under 2.5 goals

Vitoria has fulfilled 5 of 6 Under 2.5 goal predictions. The average estimated probability was 63.3%, with an expected 3.8 fulfilled predictions, indicating strong overperformance. The current prediction of 55% is below the historical range of 60-75%, suggesting a more conservative estimate than recent evidence.

Recent evidence for Vitoria6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Serie A