Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Bahia1Gremio RS1

HT 0–0Sun 17 May 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 17–3On targetOn target 6–1CornersCorners 7–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 May 2026, 21:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Grêmio’s winless away record, midfield injury crisis, and Bahia’s recent H2H clean-sheet wins make a low-scoring home result the most likely outcome.

The best value lies in Under 2.5 goals (edge +10.9pts), Both Teams to Score – No (edge +8.7pts), and Grêmio Under 0.5 team goals (edge +20pts). Bahia or Draw is high-confidence but offers no betting value at 1.22.

Context

Grêmio away record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses.
- Only 4 goals scored in 8 away matches, failing to score in 5 of them.
- Last away match was a 0-0 draw at Atletico Paranaense, extending the winless run.
Arthur Melo (thigh), J. Nardoni (injury), C. Pavon (suspension), and M. Villasanti (knee) are all missing.
- These four are central to Grêmio's build-up and ball retention.
- Without them, Grêmio have struggled to create chances, especially away from home.
Bahia 4-0 Grêmio (Oct 2025) and Bahia 1-0 Grêmio (Apr 2024) are the most recent home H2Hs.
- Grêmio failed to score in three of the last five overall meetings.
- Bahia's defensive setup has consistently frustrated Grêmio's attack in recent encounters.
Castro took over in Dec 2025, but Grêmio's away form remains 0-3-5 this season.
- The team has scored only 0.5 goals per away game under his management.
- A transfer ban in late 2025 limited squad improvements, hindering Castro's ability to reshape the team.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bahia's strong recent H2H dominance with clean sheets, combined with Gremio's terrible away form and extensive midfield injuries, gives Bahia a clear edge at home.
- Bahia won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings, including 4-0 and 1-0 at home, all with clean sheets.
- Gremio RS away record this season: 0W-3D-5L, only 4 goals scored in 8 away matches.
- Bahia home record: 2W-3D-2L, 11 goals scored in 7 home games, averaging 1.57 goals per home match.
- Gremio RS missing key midfielders Arthur Melo, J. Nardoni, C. Pavon, M. Villasanti, and defender Marlon.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBahiaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gremio's winless away record and depleted squad make a Bahia defeat unlikely; Bahia's home resilience and H2H edge support a double chance on the home side.
- Gremio RS have not won away this season (0W-3D-5L).
- Bahia have lost only 2 of 7 home matches this season.
- Last 5 H2H: Bahia won 3, Gremio won 2, but Gremio's wins were both 1-0 at home.
- Gremio RS missing 5 key players, including 4 midfielders.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBahia or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half leading percentages, and recent H2H first halves have been tight, making a draw at halftime the most likely outcome.
- Bahia first half record: led at HT in only 27% of matches, trailed in 40%.
- Gremio RS first half record: led at HT in 27% of matches, trailed in only 13%.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches were drawn at halftime.
- Gremio RS away: 5 of 8 first halves ended in draws.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bahia tends to score later, and Gremio's away defense weakens after halftime; Bahia could edge the second half.
- Bahia scored 60% of their goals in the second half this season.
- Gremio RS conceded 65% of their away goals in the second half.
- Last 5 H2H: Bahia scored all their goals in the second half in 2 of 3 wins.
- Gremio RS away: lost second half in 4 of 8 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableBahiaEstimated chance40%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gremio's away scoring struggles and midfield absences, combined with Bahia's recent H2H defensive success, make a clean sheet for Bahia likely.
- In last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in only 1 match (20%).
- Gremio RS away: scored only 4 goals in 8 matches, failed to score in 5 of those 8.
- Bahia kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 H2H matches against Gremio.
- Gremio RS missing key creative midfielders Arthur Melo, J. Nardoni, C. Pavon, M. Villasanti.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gremio's away scoring drought and midfield injuries, plus Bahia's H2H clean sheet trend, point to a home clean sheet.
- Bahia kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings vs Gremio.
- Gremio RS away: failed to score in 5 of 8 matches, averaging 0.5 goals per away game.
- Gremio RS missing 4 midfielders, including key playmaker Arthur Melo.
- Bahia home defense: conceded 8 goals in 7 home matches, but only 1.14 per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGremio RS not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low-scoring H2H history and Gremio's poor away attack, combined with Bahia's moderate home scoring, strongly support under 2.5 goals.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 matches had under 2.5 goals (80%).
- Gremio RS away: 7 of 8 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Bahia home: 4 of 7 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Gremio RS average only 0.9 goals per game overall this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's home scoring has been inconsistent, and Gremio's away defense is not terrible; under 1.5 home goals is a marginal call based on H2H patterns.
- Bahia scored exactly 1 goal in 3 of last 5 H2H home matches vs Gremio.
- Bahia home: scored 11 goals in 7 matches, but 4 of 7 had under 1.5 goals.
- Gremio RS away: conceded 11 goals in 8 matches, but only 1.38 per game.
- Gremio RS missing key defenders Marlon and Gustavo Martins (questionable).
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBahia under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gremio's away scoring futility and midfield crisis make it highly probable they fail to score.
- Gremio RS away: failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- Gremio RS away: only 4 goals in 8 matches, averaging 0.5 per game.
- Bahia kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Gremio RS missing 4 midfielders, severely limiting creativity.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostGremio RS under 0.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gremio's extremely low first-half scoring and solid first-half defense, combined with H2H history, suggest a goalless first half.
- Bahia first half goals: average 0.8, but 0.8 conceded as well.
- Gremio RS first half goals: average 0.3, conceded 0.2.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches had 0 goals at halftime.
- Gremio RS away: 5 of 8 first halves had under 0.5 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's home matches average over 11 corners, and their possession dominance should generate corners; over 9.5 is a reasonable expectation.
- Bahia home: average 6.0 corners for, 5.7 against, total 11.7 per home match.
- Gremio RS away: average 3.5 corners for, 5.6 against, total 9.1 per away match.
- Last 5 H2H: corner data unavailable, but Bahia's recent home matches average 11.7 corners.
- Bahia's possession-based style (57.4% average) often leads to higher corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages and the referee's history, plus Gremio's relegation pressure, point to a card count over 4.5.
- Bahia home: average 2.1 yellow cards, opponents 2.4, total 4.5 per home match.
- Gremio RS away: average 2.3 yellow cards, opponents 2.6, total 4.9 per away match.
- Referee Raphael Claus averages 4.8 cards per match in Serie A.
- Match has relegation stakes for Gremio, increasing intensity.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

W4-0BahiavGremioOct 19, 2025SA

L1-0GremiovBahiaMay 25, 2025SA

W0-2GremiovBahiaAug 17, 2024SA

W1-0BahiavGremioApr 28, 2024SA

L1-0GremiovBahiaNov 4, 2023SA

Bahia: 3 clean sheetsGremio RS: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Bahia Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	14	6	4	4	20-18	22	LDDLW
17	Gremio RS Relegation - Serie B	15	4	5	6	15-17	17	LDWLD

5pt gap between teamsGremio RS in relegation zone

Recent Form

Bahia

L1-2RemoMay 14COP

L1-2CruzeiroMay 10SA

D2-2Sao PauloMay 3SA

D2-2SantosApr 25SA

L1-3RemoApr 22COP

L0-2FlamengoApr 19SA

W2-1MirassolApr 11SA

L1-2PalmeirasApr 5SA

W3-0Atletico ParanaenseApr 1SA

L1-4RemoMar 22SA

W2-0RB BragantinoMar 18SA

W1-0InternacionalMar 15SA

D1-1VitoriaMar 11SA

W2-1VitoriaMar 7BAI

W4-2JuazeirenseFeb 28BAI

Gremio RS

W3-0ConfiançaMay 14COP

L0-1FlamengoMay 10SA

W3-0Deportivo RiestraMay 5CON

D0-0Atletico ParanaenseMay 2SA

D0-0PalestinoApr 30CON

W1-0CoritibaApr 26SA

W2-0ConfiançaApr 21COP

L0-2CruzeiroApr 18SA

W1-0Deportivo RiestraApr 14CON

D0-0InternacionalApr 11SA

L0-1Atletico TorqueApr 9CON

D0-0RemoApr 5SA

L1-2PalmeirasApr 3SA

L1-2Vasco DA GamaMar 22SA

W2-0VitoriaMar 19SA

Squad & Injuries

Bahia

10 out

Attackers4/15

×#77

×#12

×#77

×#12

Midfielders2/12

×#8

Defenders2/13

×#21

Goalkeeper2/6

×#1

#8 Caio Alexandre — Inactive

#21 S. Ramos — Yellow Cards

#1 Ronaldo Strada — Shoulder Injury

#77 Ruan Pablo — Ankle Injury

#12 Willian Jose — Injury

#8 Caio Alexandre — Inactive

#21 S. Ramos — Yellow Cards

#1 Ronaldo Strada — Shoulder Injury

#77 Ruan Pablo — Ankle Injury

#12 Willian Jose — Injury

Gremio RS

16 out

Attackers8

Midfielders8/13

×#8

×#5

×#7

×#54

×#8

×#5

×#7

×#54

Defenders6/11

×#23

×#6

×#18

×#23

×#6

×#18

Goalkeeper4

#8 Arthur Melo — Thigh Injury

#23 Marlon — Broken ankle

#5 J. Nardoni — Injury

#7 C. Pavon — Yellow Cards

M. Villasanti — Knee Injury

#6 Gustavo Martins — Injury

#18 Joao Pedro — Muscle Injury

#54 Pedro Gabriel — Injury