Chapecoense3Bahia3

HT 1–2Sun 16 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 35%–65%ShotsShots 12–19On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 02:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Bahia are strong favorites against bottom-side Chapecoense, but the best value lies in the double chance (Draw or Bahia) at 1.30 and the over 4.5 cards at 5.25.

Avoid first-half and goal markets where odds are efficient or negative.

Context

Chapecoense's official website confirmed Lacerda was in charge by mid-July.
- Under Lacerda, Chapecoense have lost 5 of 6 Serie A games, conceding 2+ goals in 4 of those.
- The team remains bottom of the table with only 10 points from 21 matches.
Bahia's last 8 Serie A matches: W4 D3 L1.
- They have drawn 9 of 22 league games this season, the joint-most in the division.
- Away from home, Bahia have drawn 4 of their last 6, including two 0-0 stalemates.
Chapecoense have scored 0 goals in 3 of their last 6 home games.
- They average 1.0 goal per home match in Serie A, with only 10 goals in 10 games.
- In the reverse fixture, Bahia kept a clean sheet in a 2-0 win.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's strong form and Chapecoense's relegation struggles give the visitors a clear edge, though Bahia's high draw rate tempers confidence.
- Chapecoense are bottom of Serie A with 10 points from 21 matches, losing 13 of those.
- Bahia are 6th with 33 points, pushing for Copa Sudamericana qualification.
- Chapecoense have lost 5 of their last 6 Serie A matches, conceding 2+ goals in 4 of those.
- Bahia have lost only 1 of their last 8 Serie A matches (W4 D3).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBahiaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chapecoense's inability to win matches makes a home victory unlikely, while Bahia's consistency and H2H record support a double chance.
- Chapecoense have won only 1 of 21 league matches this season.
- Bahia have lost only 5 of 22 matches, with 9 draws.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Chapecoense have won only once.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or BahiaEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bahia's low first-half lead rate tempers confidence, but Chapecoense's poor first-half record gives Bahia a slight edge to be ahead at the break.
- Chapecoense trail at halftime in 47% of matches, leading in only 20%.
- Bahia lead at halftime in only 13% of matches, but Chapecoense's early vulnerability is higher.
- In the last H2H, Bahia led 1-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBahiaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bahia's superior squad depth and Chapecoense's tendency to fade after halftime make Bahia likely to win the second period.
- Chapecoense have lost the second half in 4 of their last 6 Serie A matches.
- Bahia have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Chapecoense's fitness and depth issues often lead to second-half collapses.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBahiaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime and Bahia win at full time is a plausible scenario given Chapecoense's early resilience and late collapses, though specific evidence is limited.
- Chapecoense have drawn at halftime in 33% of matches, but lost 62% overall.
- Bahia have drawn at halftime in 60% of matches, but won 36% overall.
- The pattern of a tight first half followed by Bahia pulling away fits both teams' profiles.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/BahiaEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chapecoense's defensive frailties combined with Bahia's attacking capability make over 2.5 goals likely, especially given the hosts' need to push for points.
- Chapecoense concede 1.7 goals per match on average, with 24 conceded in 10 home games.
- Bahia score 1.3 goals per match on average, but Chapecoense's defense is among the leakiest.
- 4 of Chapecoense's last 6 Serie A matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
- Bahia's last 5 away matches have averaged 2.6 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chapecoense tend to find the net at home despite poor results, and Bahia's away defense is not watertight, suggesting both teams can score.
- Chapecoense have scored in 5 of their last 7 home matches across all competitions.
- Bahia have conceded in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chapecoense's tendency to concede early, combined with Bahia's ability to start quickly, makes a first-half goal probable.
- Chapecoense concede 0.9 first-half goals on average, trailing at halftime in 47% of matches.
- Bahia score 0.5 first-half goals on average, but Chapecoense's early defensive lapses are frequent.
- In 4 of Chapecoense's last 6 Serie A matches, there was a goal in the first half.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With Chapecoense likely to push forward late and Bahia exploiting spaces, the second half could see multiple goals, though evidence is moderate.
- Chapecoense concede 1.7 goals per match overall, with many coming after halftime as they tire.
- Bahia have scored in the second half in 6 of their last 10 away matches.
- The last H2H meeting saw both goals in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's high corner count and Chapecoense's defensive pressure should lead to an above-average number of corners.
- Bahia average 7 corners per match, while Chapecoense average 3.5.
- In Bahia's last 5 away matches, total corners averaged 10.8.
- Chapecoense's home matches average 9.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records and the competitive nature of the match suggest a card count exceeding 4.5.
- Chapecoense average 2.4 yellow cards per match, Bahia average 2.7.
- In the last H2H, there were 5 yellow cards.
- Chapecoense's desperation and Bahia's physical style often lead to bookings.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Bahia lead at half-time in only 13% of matches, while Chapecoense trail at HT in 47% at home, but the odds don't offer enough value for a low-confidence outcome.

Prediction history

Chapecoense corners history shows even split

Chapecoense has seen Over 9.5 corners fulfilled in 2 of 4 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 52.5%, with an expected 2.1 fulfilled predictions, closely matching the actual 2. Notably, both fulfilled predictions came away from home, while the single home match missed.

Recent evidence for Chapecoense4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Serie A