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Predictions graded

Bahia2Remo PA1

HT 1–0Mon 14 Sept 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions19–579%

Edges7–0100%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 17–14On targetOn target 9–3CornersCorners 7–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 06:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Bahia are favored at home against relegation-threatened Remo, but the odds are too short to back them.

The only potential value is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.20, though confidence is medium. Avoid the heavily juiced home win and double chance markets.

Context

Bahia are 5th in Serie A with 43 points, chasing a Copa Libertadores qualification spot. Remo PA are 19th with 23 points, two points from safety.
Bahia have won three and drawn two of their last five league games, including a 3-2 win at RB Bragantino on 5 September and a 3-2 home win over Internacional on 30 August. Remo PA have lost their last three league matches, most recently 0-1 at home to Flamengo on 6 September, and have only two away wins in 13 attempts. This gap in form and table position suggests Bahia enter with a clear advantage, though Remo PA's need for points could make them dangerous.
- Bahia are 5th with 43 points; Remo PA are 19th with 23 points.
- Bahia's last five league matches: W, W, W, D, D.
- Remo PA's last five league matches: L, L, L, D, D.
- Remo PA have only 2 away wins in 13 away matches this season.
Bahia midfielder Erick is suspended after receiving his third yellow card in the Bragantino win.
His confirmed absence removes a current midfield option and forces a different central structure than the one used in that victory. Bahia must adjust their midfield selection without a like-for-like replacement identified in the available evidence.
- Erick received his third yellow card and will not face Remo on 14 September.
- Independent local reporting also identifies the ban as automatic after the Bragantino match.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 05:57 · Europe/Bucharestgege.globo.com · 6 Sep 2026Jornal Correiowww.correio24horas.com.br · 9 Sep 2026
Remo starting right-back Marcelinho is suspended after his third yellow card against Flamengo.
His confirmed absence removes a regular starter from Remo's defensive organisation. The team will need to field a different right-back, altering their back line for the trip to Salvador.
- Flamengo's official match report records a yellow card for Marcelinho in the 6 September game.
- Local reporting identifies it as Marcelinho's third league yellow and confirms his suspension against Bahia.
- Marcelinho started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 05:57 · Europe/BucharestFlamengowww.flamengo.com.br · 6 Sep 2026EC Bahiawww.ecbahia.com · 8 Sep 2026
Remo PA's away record is 2 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses in 13 matches, with 13 goals scored and 26 conceded.
Remo PA have been poor away, losing 8 of 13 matches and conceding an average of 2 goals per away game. Bahia have been solid at home with 5 wins, 6 draws, and only 2 losses in 13 home matches, conceding just 13 goals. This home/away split favors Bahia, but Remo PA did win their last meeting at Bahia's ground in the Copa do Brasil, so they can compete on the road.
- Remo PA away record: 2W, 3D, 8L, 13 goals for, 26 against.
- Bahia home record: 5W, 6D, 2L, 20 goals for, 13 against.
- Remo PA lost 0-1 at Flamengo on 6 September and 1-2 at Fluminense on 22 August.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Bahia

1.41fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 71%

0.0ppshort

Bahia's home record and Remo's away record support a home lean, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bahia or Draw

1.11fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 90%

−10.0ppshort

Bahia or Draw is highly likely, but the odds are extremely short and offer no value.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bahia or Draw

1.10fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 91%

−16.0ppshort

Bahia are unlikely to trail at halftime, but the odds are extremely short and offer no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches recently, and the H2H history shows goals, making over 2.5 likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Bahia's tendency to score early and Remo's vulnerability in the first half make a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's strong home form and Remo's poor away record, combined with recent form, give the hosts a clear edge, supported by motivation and structural home advantage.
- Bahia home record: 5W-6D-2L, 20 goals for, 13 against in 13 home matches
- Remo away record: 2W-3D-8L, 13 goals for, 26 against in 13 away matches
- Bahia last 5 form: WWWDD; Remo last 5 form: LLLDD
- H2H last 3: Bahia won 2, Remo won 1 (all competitions)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBahiaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's strong home form and Remo's poor away record make a home win or draw highly likely, driven by structural home advantage and motivation.
- Bahia home record: 5W-6D-2L, 20 goals for, 13 against in 13 home matches
- Remo away record: 2W-3D-8L, 13 goals for, 26 against in 13 away matches
- Bahia last 5 form: WWWDD; Remo last 5 form: LLLDD
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBahia or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bahia's stronger first-half scoring and Remo's weaker first-half performance give Bahia a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Bahia led at halftime in 27% of matches; Remo led at halftime in 13%
- Bahia average first half goals: 0.9; Remo average first half goals: 0.5
- Bahia first half goals conceded: 0.6; Remo first half goals conceded: 0.7
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBahiaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bahia's superior overall quality and home advantage should translate into a better second half, though confidence is low.
- Bahia average second half goals: 0.8; Remo average second half goals: 0.6
- Bahia average second half goals conceded: 0.7; Remo average second half goals conceded: 0.7
- Bahia home record suggests stronger second-half performance
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonBahiaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bahia could lead at halftime and hold on for the win, but the probability is modest given Remo's occasional resilience.
- Bahia led at halftime in 27% of matches and won 42% overall
- Remo trailed at halftime in 20% and lost 50% overall
- Bahia home record: 5W-6D-2L
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonBahia/BahiaEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bahia winning both halves is possible but unlikely, as they often draw or lose one half.
- Bahia won both halves in 2 of last 15 matches
- Remo lost both halves in 3 of last 15 matches
- Bahia home advantage and Remo away struggles
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonBahiaEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia are unlikely to trail at halftime given their stronger first-half stats, making Bahia or draw a safe bet.
- Bahia led at halftime in 27% of matches; Remo led at halftime in 13%
- Bahia first half goals: 0.9; Remo first half goals: 0.5
- Bahia first half goals conceded: 0.6; Remo first half goals conceded: 0.7
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBahia or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches recently, and the H2H history shows goals, making over 2.5 likely.
- Bahia average goals for: 1.7, goals against: 1.3 in last 15 matches
- Remo average goals for: 1.1, goals against: 1.4 in last 15 matches
- Bahia home matches average 2.5 total goals; Remo away matches average 3.0 total goals
- H2H last 3 meetings: 3, 4, 5 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, and the H2H supports both teams finding the net.
- Bahia scored in 12 of last 15 matches; Remo scored in 10 of last 15 matches
- Bahia conceded in 10 of last 15; Remo conceded in 12 of last 15
- H2H last 3: both teams scored in 2 of 3 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's tendency to score early and Remo's vulnerability in the first half make a first-half goal likely.
- Bahia average first half goals: 0.9; Remo average first half goals: 0.5
- Bahia first half goals conceded: 0.6; Remo first half goals conceded: 0.7
- Bahia led at halftime in 27% of matches; Remo trailed at halftime in 20%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score and concede in the second half, pushing the total over 1.5.
- Bahia average second half goals: 0.8; Remo average second half goals: 0.6
- Bahia average second half goals conceded: 0.7; Remo average second half goals conceded: 0.7
- Combined average second half goals: 1.4
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring in the first half is possible but not strongly supported by the averages.
- Bahia first half goals: 0.9; Remo first half goals: 0.5
- Bahia first half goals conceded: 0.6; Remo first half goals conceded: 0.7
- H2H first half data not available
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance30%

Match stats8 of 12 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and the combined average suggests over 9.5 is plausible.
- Bahia average corners: 6.2; Remo average corners: 4.9
- Bahia opponent corners: 5.6; Remo opponent corners: 7.3
- Combined average corners: 11.1
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's corner count is consistently above 5.5, and Remo concede many corners, supporting the over.
- Bahia average corners: 6.2
- Bahia home matches average corners: 6.5 (estimated from data)
- Remo opponent corners: 7.3
BetBugs · Home CornerswonBahia over 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Remo's away corner count is likely below 4.5, and Bahia concede fewer corners at home.
- Remo average corners: 4.9
- Remo away matches average corners: 4.2 (estimated from data)
- Bahia opponent corners: 5.6
BetBugs · Away CornerslostRemo PA under 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shot averages suggest over 24.5, but variance is high.
- Bahia average shots total: 16.1; Remo average shots total: 11.1
- Bahia opponent shots total: 13.5; Remo opponent shots total: 15.3
- Combined average shots total: 27.2
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is close to 8.5, making the over a coin flip.
- Bahia average shots on target: 4.7; Remo average shots on target: 3.3
- Bahia opponent shots on target: 4.3; Remo opponent shots on target: 4.9
- Combined average shots on target: 8.0
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's shot volume is consistently high, especially at home, supporting the over.
- Bahia average shots total: 16.1
- Bahia home matches average shots total: 17.0 (estimated)
- Remo opponent shots total: 15.3
BetBugs · Home Shots TotalwonBahia over 15.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Remo's away shot totals are typically below 11.5, and Bahia limit opponent shots at home.
- Remo average shots total: 11.1
- Remo away matches average shots total: 9.8 (estimated)
- Bahia opponent shots total: 13.5
BetBugs · Away Shots TotallostRemo PA under 11.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bahia's shots on target average is above 4.5, and Remo concede many shots on target.
- Bahia average shots on target: 4.7
- Bahia home matches average shots on target: 5.0 (estimated)
- Remo opponent shots on target: 4.9
BetBugs · Home Shots on Target TotalwonBahia over 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Remo's away shots on target are likely below 3.5, and Bahia's defense is solid at home.
- Remo average shots on target: 3.3
- Remo away matches average shots on target: 2.8 (estimated)
- Bahia opponent shots on target: 4.3
BetBugs · Away Shots on Target TotalwonRemo PA under 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is exactly 4.5, making the over a coin flip.
- Bahia average yellow cards: 2.6; Remo average yellow cards: 1.9
- Bahia opponent yellow cards: 2.1; Remo opponent yellow cards: 2.3
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.5
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bahia's yellow card average is close to 2.5, making the over a coin flip.
- Bahia average yellow cards: 2.6
- Bahia home matches average yellow cards: 2.8 (estimated)
- Remo opponent yellow cards: 2.3
BetBugs · Home Cards Over/UnderlostBahia over 2.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Remo's away yellow card average is below 2.5, and Bahia do not draw many cards from opponents.
- Remo average yellow cards: 1.9
- Remo away matches average yellow cards: 1.7 (estimated)
- Bahia opponent yellow cards: 2.1
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/UnderwonRemo PA under 2.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 71% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Bahia's Over 4.5 cards projections have matched in 2 of 4 recent matches

Bahia's Over 4.5 cards projections have been fulfilled in 2 of 4 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 56.3%, with an expected 2.3 fulfilled predictions. Notably, both home matches resulted in over 4.5 cards, while both away matches stayed under.

Recent evidence for Bahia4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Serie A