IF Karlstad1Karlbergs BK1

HT 1–1Sun 27 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 06:10 · Europe/Bucharest

IF Karlstad sit fifth and have won four of the last five meetings, but they have not won any of their last six league games, while Karlbergs BK arrive with one goal in six.

Karlstad remain the likelier winners; 1.57 is too thin for a side on that run. Of the reviewed prices, the draw or a Karlbergs win at 2.25, both teams not to score at 1.95 and the draw at 4.00 offer something.

Context

IF Karlstad were reported fifth on 38 points following the goalless Karlstad derby on 16 September, after sitting second in the table at the end of August. With the closing rounds of the season approaching, home fixtures such as this one are where they need to make up ground on the sides above them. The placing comes from club-level tracking rather than the competition's own feed, so it should be read as a guide to the run-in rather than a settled table position.
- IF Karlstad were fifth on 38 points after their 0-0 draw with FBK Karlstad on 16 September.
- The same tracking placed IF Karlstad second after their 2-2 draw at Gefle IF on 29 August.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 06:07 · Europe/Bucharest
FC Stockholm's 2-0 win in the round-23 Kungsholmen derby on 20 September was Karlbergs BK's latest match and left the leaders eight points clear at the top of Ettan Norra. Karlbergs take one win from their previous five league matches into a trip to a Karlstad side sitting fifth, so on recent results they arrive as the side in poorer form. The derby defeat came against the division's best team and was sealed by its leading scorer, Lukas Sunesson, so it reflects the gap at the top as much as Karlbergs' own level.
- FC Stockholm beat Karlbergs BK 2-0 at Kristinebergs IP on 20 September in the round-23 Kungsholmen derby.
- Matheo Canoilas and Ettan Norra's leading scorer Lukas Sunesson scored for FC Stockholm.
- The derby drew 289 spectators.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 06:07 · Europe/Bucharest
A heavy away defeat that was still a one-goal game at the interval.
Karlbergs trailed 0-1 at half-time before conceding four more, so the collapse came in the second half rather than from the first whistle. It is a single result and not evidence of how they will defend at Karlstad, but it is their most recent away match and it came ten days before this fixture.
- Karlbergs BK lost 0-5 away to Järfälla in Ettan Norra on 17 September 2026.
- They were 0-1 down at half-time and conceded four goals in the second half.
The 16 September meeting with FBK Karlstad was the season's second "Älv Clasico", and Ettan reported 5,374 spectators across the two derbies. It matters for this fixture because IF Karlstad have been drawing unusually well at home, and Karlbergs BK travel from Stockholm into that setting. The figure covers both Karlstad derbies rather than Karlbergs' visit, and the derby itself finished goalless, so this is atmosphere around the match rather than an indication of how it will be played.
- Ettan reported 5,374 spectators in total across the season's two "Älv Clasico" derbies between IF Karlstad and FBK Karlstad.
- The second of the two meetings was hosted by IF Karlstad on 16 September.
- The derby finished 0-0.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 06:07 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

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BetBugs probabilities

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Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlstad sit higher, have home advantage and have won four of the last five meetings, while Karlbergs arrive after heavy defeats.
- IF Karlstad are 5th on 39 points (11-6-6) and 6-2-3 at home, 15 goals scored and 9 conceded in 11 home league games.
- Karlbergs BK are 11th on 28 points (8-4-11) and 4-2-6 away, with 17 scored and 21 conceded in 12 away games.
- The last five meetings produced four IF Karlstad wins and one 0-0 draw.
- Karlbergs have scored one goal and conceded 13 across their last six league matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIF KarlstadEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves involving both teams have been low-scoring and level at the break has been a common outcome.
- IF Karlstad's 14-match window averages 0.57 first-half goals for and 0.50 against.
- Karlbergs' 13-match window averages 0.69 first-half goals for and 0.31 against.
- Karlbergs were 0-0 at half-time in three of their last six matches.
- Karlbergs have scored no first-half goals in their last six matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs have been heavily outscored after the break in recent weeks and Karlstad are the stronger side overall.
- Karlbergs conceded ten second-half goals in their last six matches while scoring one.
- Karlstad average 0.86 second-half goals for and 0.86 against across 14 matches.
- Karlbergs' 13-match window shows 1.08 second-half goals conceded per game.
- Karlstad scored five second-half goals across their last six matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostIF KarlstadEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad sit higher, have home advantage and have won four of the last five meetings, while Karlbergs arrive after heavy defeats. Both teams are on poor recent runs and Karlstad's games have repeatedly ended level recently.
- IF Karlstad are 5th on 39 points (11-6-6) and 6-2-3 at home, 15 goals scored and 9 conceded in 11 home league games.
- Karlbergs BK are 11th on 28 points (8-4-11) and 4-2-6 away, with 17 scored and 21 conceded in 12 away games.
- IF Karlstad's last six matches are 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats.
- The most recent meeting between the clubs, in May 2026, finished 0-0.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIF Karlstad or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad carry the better first-half numbers at home and Karlbergs have not scored before the break in six matches. First halves involving both teams have been low-scoring and level at the break has been a common outcome.
- IF Karlstad average 0.67 first-half goals at home and concede 0.33.
- Karlbergs have not scored a first-half goal in their last six matches.
- IF Karlstad's 14-match window averages 0.57 first-half goals for and 0.50 against.
- Karlbergs' 13-match window averages 0.69 first-half goals for and 0.31 against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonIF Karlstad or DrawEstimated chance84%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side is scoring freely at the moment and recent Karlbergs matches have been short of their own goals.
- Karlbergs have scored one goal in their last six matches, failing to score in five of them.
- IF Karlstad have scored one goal or fewer in four of their last six matches.
- Karlstad's 11 home league games average 2.18 combined goals.
- Two of the last five meetings ended with one goal or none (1-0 and 0-0).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Karlbergs' recent scoring record is very thin and Karlstad have shown they can keep opponents out.
- Karlbergs have scored one goal in their last six matches, blanked in five.
- Karlstad kept three clean sheets in their 14-match window and two in six home matches.
- Karlbergs were shut out in three consecutive away matches.
- Karlstad failed to score in 4 of their last 14 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad have been modest scorers in recent weeks and their home output this window is low.
- IF Karlstad have scored one goal or fewer in four of their last six matches.
- Karlstad's six home matches in the current window yielded three goals scored.
- Karlstad's home league rate is 1.36 goals per game.
- Karlstad were held to 0-0 at home by FBK Karlstad on 16 September.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonIF Karlstad under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs have barely scored in recent weeks and their last three away games produced no goals at all.
- Karlbergs have scored one goal in their last six matches, failing to score in five.
- Karlbergs scored no goals in their last three away matches (0-5, 0-3, 0-0).
- Karlbergs' last six matches produced a single goal for them.
- Karlstad kept three clean sheets in their 14-match window.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonKarlbergs BK under 1.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average around a goal in the first half, and Karlstad's recent games usually had one before the break.
- Karlstad's 14-match window averages 1.07 first-half goals in total (0.57 for, 0.50 against).
- Karlbergs' 13-match window averages 1.00 first-half goals in total (0.69 for, 0.31 against).
- A first-half goal was scored in five of Karlstad's last six matches.
- Karlstad conceded first-half goals in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
First halves involving these two have rarely produced goals for both sides and Karlbergs' recent first halves are blank.
- Karlbergs have scored no first-half goals in their last six matches.
- Karlstad scored two first-half goals in their last six matches.
- Karlbergs average 0.69 first-half goals for in their 13-match window.
- Karlstad average 0.57 first-half goals for in their 14-match window.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs' second-half scoring has almost stopped, which limits the goals after the break.
- Karlbergs scored one second-half goal in their last six matches.
- Karlstad's 14-match window averages 1.71 second-half goals combined.
- Karlbergs' 13-match window averages 1.54 second-half goals combined.
- Karlbergs' away split shows 0.33 second-half goals per game for them.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%