Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

Pitea IF0Umea FC2

HT 0–1Wed 16 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges5–363%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 23:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Piteå's poor home form and Umeå's H2H dominance point to an away win or draw, but the market offers no value on those outcomes.

The best edge is 'No' in the Win Both Halves market at 1.25, with our 85% probability versus the implied 80%. Avoid overpriced goals and first-half markets.

Context

Pitea IF are 14th in Ettan Norra with 15 points from 21 matches, one point above the relegation line.
Their home record is poor: one win, three draws, and six losses in ten home games, with 11 goals scored and 22 conceded. This match against Umea FC is a chance to improve that record, but their recent form (LWLDD) shows inconsistency. A loss could leave them in the relegation zone depending on other results.
- Pitea IF are 14th with 15 points, one point above 16th-placed Stocksund.
- Pitea IF have only one win in ten home matches this season.
Piteå's defence is missing Henrik Millbert to a long-term injury and Oskar Lundmark, who moved away for studies. The club signed centre-back Ties Oostra on the final day of the window and he joined training that Thursday.
The late arrival must be integrated immediately, leaving Piteå with limited preparation time for a reshaped back line. Umeå's linked analysis sees Piteå's defensive issues as a reason to favour the away side, but the new signing's readiness is unproven.
- Piteå said Henrik Millbert has a long-term injury and Oskar Lundmark has moved away for studies.
- The club completed Ties Oostra's transfer on the final day of the window and said he joined training that Thursday.
- Sporting director Per Pettersson said injuries and departures had left the squad depleted and prompted the defensive signing.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 23:30 · Europe/BucharestPiteå IF FFpifherr.se · 7 Sep 2026
Umeå FC attacker E. Olawore had started 18 of the club's first 19 league matches before his permanent sale to Kongsvinger IL on 2 September.
His exit removes a regular starter from Umeå's attacking selection and rotation options for this trip. The linked analysis still favours Umeå, but the loss of a frequent starter adds uncertainty to their attacking output.
- Umeå FC announced Emmanuel Olawore's sale to Kongsvinger IL on 2 September.
- Fotbolltransfers reported that Olawore had started 18 of Umeå's first 19 league matches before the move.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 23:30 · Europe/BucharestFotbolltransfersfotbolltransfers.com · 3 Sep 2026
Umea FC are 13th in Ettan Norra with 23 points from 21 matches, nine points above the relegation line.
Their away record is three wins, two draws, and five losses in ten away games, with 13 goals scored and 17 conceded. They lost their last match 0-4 at home to Stockholm Internazionale, but they beat Pitea IF 2-0 in the reverse fixture on 12 June 2026. A win here would further secure their position.
- Umea FC are 13th with 23 points, nine points above the relegation line.
- Umea FC lost 0-4 at home to Stockholm Internazionale on 13 September 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Umea FC

2.04fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 49%

0.0ppshort

Umea FC's superior H2H record and Pitea's poor home form give them the edge, but the odds are slightly short of our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Umea FC

1.39fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 72%

0.0ppshort

Pitea's home struggles and Umea's H2H dominance make the away side or draw the most likely outcome, but the odds are fair.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Umea FC

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Umea FC are more likely to be ahead or level at half time, but the odds are far too short.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to concede in the first half, but the odds heavily favor over 0.5, leaving no value.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The first half goal averages suggest both teams scoring in the first half is less likely, but the odds are too low for value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Umea FC's superior away form and dominant H2H record give them the edge, while Pitea IF's poor home record and defensive issues make them vulnerable.
- Umea FC away record: 3W 2D 5L, 13 goals scored, 17 conceded in 10 away matches
- Pitea IF home record: 1W 3D 6L, 11 goals scored, 22 conceded in 10 home matches
- H2H last 5: Umea FC won 4, Pitea IF won 1; Umea FC won the most recent league meeting 2-0 at home
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUmea FCEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pitea IF's home struggles and Umea FC's H2H dominance make the away side or draw the most likely outcome.
- Pitea IF home record: 1W 3D 6L, only 1 win in 10 home matches
- Umea FC away record: 3W 2D 5L, 5 matches without defeat in 10 away matches
- H2H last 5: Umea FC unbeaten in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Umea FCEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team has a strong first-half record, making a draw at half time a plausible outcome.
- Pitea IF leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 47%
- Umea FC leading at half time in 27% of matches, trailing in 33%
- Both teams often go into half time level or behind
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Umea FC's superior quality and Pitea IF's defensive issues could lead to Umea FC winning the second half.
- Umea FC have a better overall record and away form than Pitea IF
- Pitea IF tend to concede more goals in the second half based on their home record
- Umea FC's attacking options may be reduced but they still have quality
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonUmea FCEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Umea FC win is a possible scenario given the teams' patterns.
- Pitea IF often trail at half time (47%)
- Umea FC have won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Umea FC away record shows they can win after a level first half
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Umea FCEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team is likely to win both halves given their inconsistent performances.
- Pitea IF have won both halves in very few matches
- Umea FC have not shown consistent dominance in both halves
- Both teams have mixed first and second half performances
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umea FC are more likely to be ahead or level at half time, making draw or Umea FC a solid double chance.
- Pitea IF trailing at half time in 47% of matches
- Umea FC leading at half time in 27% and drawing in 40% of matches
- Umea FC have a better first half record than Pitea IF
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Umea FCEstimated chance65%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and their matches tend to produce goals, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Pitea IF home matches average 3.3 total goals (11 scored, 22 conceded in 10 home games)
- Umea FC away matches average 3.0 total goals (13 scored, 17 conceded in 10 away games)
- Both teams have conceded heavily: Pitea IF 41 goals in 21 games, Umea FC 37 goals in 21 games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score but also concede, making both teams scoring a strong possibility.
- Pitea IF scored in 7 of 10 home matches, conceded in 9 of 10 home matches
- Umea FC scored in 7 of 10 away matches, conceded in 8 of 10 away matches
- Both teams have negative goal differences and concede regularly
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Pitea IF first half goals: 0.4 per game, first half goals conceded: 0.9 per game
- Umea FC first half goals: 0.5 per game, first half goals conceded: 0.6 per game
- Combined first half goal average: 1.2 goals per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the overall goal trends, the second half could see multiple goals, though confidence is lower due to limited half-specific data.
- Pitea IF average 1.2 goals per game, Umea FC average 1.0 goals per game
- Both teams concede more in the second half based on overall goals conceded
- Recent matches show second-half goals in most games
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first half goal averages suggest that both teams scoring in the first half is less likely than at least one team scoring.
- Pitea IF first half goals: 0.4 per game, first half goals conceded: 0.9 per game
- Umea FC first half goals: 0.5 per game, first half goals conceded: 0.6 per game
- Combined first half goal average is 1.2, but both teams scoring in first half is less common
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 34% vs our estimate 30%; no value on the home side given their poor home record.

Prediction history

Pitea IF has underperformed Over 2.5 projections recently

Pitea IF has fulfilled 2 of 5 Over 2.5 predictions, a 40% rate. The average estimated probability was 60%, so roughly 3 fulfilments were expected. Missed predictions had a slightly higher average probability (61.7%) than matched ones (57.5%), and the current 55% probability sits within the historical range of 55–65%.

Recent evidence for Pitea IF5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Ettan - Norra