Pitea IF3FC Jarfalla1

HT 0–1Sun 20 Sept 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 16:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Confirmed live score has Järfälla 1–0 up in a relegation six-pointer where they hold a three-point cushion over Piteå.

The best value is Over 2.5 goals at 1.91 (60% vs 52.4% implied); avoid Järfälla match winner at 1.57 and the 1.11 double chance, both priced well above their true probability.

Context

Pitea IF are 15th in Ettan Norra with 15 points from 22 matches, one point above the relegation line. Their home record is one win, three draws and seven defeats in 11 home games.
The table position means Pitea cannot treat this as a routine fixture. With only one point separating them from the relegation place, dropping points at home against the team directly above them would leave them in a more exposed position. Their home form shows the difficulty: one win in 11 home matches, with 24 goals conceded at home.
- Pitea are 15th in Ettan Norra with 15 points from 22 matches, one point above the relegation line.
- Pitea's home record is one win, three draws and seven defeats in 11 home matches, with 11 goals scored and 24 conceded.
- Jarfalla are 14th with 18 points, four points clear of the relegation line.
The updated Ettan table places FC Järfälla 14th on 18 points from 22 matches and Piteå IF 15th on 15 points from 22 matches, with places 14 to 16 marked as direct relegation.
That three-point gap means Piteå enter this fixture below Järfälla in the table rather than level with them, so the direct-relegation picture around both clubs is not identical. The table alone does not establish how either side will set up or how the match will unfold, and it does not show whether the gap will still hold after this round. What it does establish is that the two clubs occupy adjacent relegation places with a measurable points difference between them.
- The official Ettan table lists FC Järfälla 14th with 18 points from 22 matches.
- The same table lists Piteå IF FF 15th with 15 points from 22 matches.
- The table marks places 14 to 16 as direct relegation.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 16:41 · Europe/BucharestEttan: 2026 Norra table and live fixturesettanfotboll.se · 20 Sep 2026
FC Jarfalla are 14th in Ettan Norra with 18 points from 22 matches. They have conceded 47 goals, an average of 2.4 per game, and their away record is two wins, three draws and six defeats.
Jarfalla's defensive record is the clearest statistical pattern in this match. They have conceded three or more goals in six of their last ten league games, including a 5-0 win over Karlberg on 17 September and a 4-0 home defeat to Stockholm Internazionale on 1 August. That gives Pitea a realistic route to scoring, even though Pitea average only 1.1 goals per game.
- Jarfalla have conceded 47 goals in 22 league matches, an average of 2.4 per game.
- Jarfalla beat Karlberg 5-0 at home on 17 September 2026.
- Jarfalla lost 4-0 at home to Stockholm Internazionale on 1 August 2026 and 3-1 away to Gefle on 12 September 2026.
Ettan's live fixture listing showed Piteå IF 0, FC Järfälla 1 at LF Arena in round 23, with the match listed as live.
A one-goal Järfälla lead changes the immediate game state: Piteå are behind at home and Järfälla are ahead in the same fixture. Because the listing is a live in-progress score, it describes the current state of this match rather than a completed result, and it does not by itself show how the remaining minutes will be played. The score is the only supplied detail about the match itself.
- Ettan’s live fixture listing shows Piteå IF FF 0, FC Järfälla 1.
- The listing identifies the fixture as round 23 at LF Arena.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 16:41 · Europe/BucharestEttan: live round-23 fixturesettanfotboll.se · 20 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

FC Jarfalla

1.57fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 64%

0.0ppshort

The market prices Järfälla as a heavy favourite at 1.57, but their away record (2W-3D-6L, 21 conceded in 11) and Piteå's home desperation make this far closer than the price implies.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or FC Jarfalla

1.11fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 90%

0.0ppshort

At 1.11 the market has fully priced Järfälla's survival cushion, leaving no value for a side that has drawn 6 and lost 13 of 22.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Piteå's home form is the worst in the division (1 win in 11) while Järfälla hold a three-point survival cushion, so the away side carries the stronger structural and motivational edge.
- Järfälla sit 14th on 18 pts vs Piteå 15th on 15 pts after 22 matches (Ettan Norra table)
- Järfälla away record: 2W-3D-6L, 15 goals for / 21 against in 11 away games
- Piteå home record: 1W-3D-7L, 11 goals for / 24 against in 11 home games
- H2H last meeting (26 Apr 2026): Järfälla won 1-0 at home vs Piteå
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC JarfallaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Piteå's inability to win at home (1 win in 11) combined with Järfälla's three-point cushion makes the draw-or-away double chance the safest result-side play.
- Piteå have drawn 6 of 22 league matches and lost 13, with only 3 wins all season
- Järfälla away: 5 of 11 away games unbeaten (2W, 3D)
- Piteå home: 3 draws and 7 defeats in 11 home matches
- Both clubs sit in the direct-relegation zone (14th and 15th), so neither can afford a loss
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or FC JarfallaEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Piteå's frequent half-time deficits (53%) give Järfälla a modest edge to lead at the break, though confidence is limited by Järfälla's own slow starts.
- Piteå trailed at half-time in 53% of matches this season
- Järfälla led at half-time in 13% of matches but scored first-half goals in 4 of last 5
- Piteå conceded 0.9 first-half goals per game on average
- Järfälla's 5-0 win over Karlberg included a 1-0 half-time lead
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFC JarfallaEstimated chance33%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Piteå rarely lead at the break (13%) and Järfälla frequently reach half-time level, making draw-or-away the safer first-half double chance.
- Piteå led at half-time in only 13% of matches this season
- Piteå trailed at half-time in 53% of matches
- Järfälla drew at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches
- Piteå's first-half goal difference is heavily negative (0.3 scored vs 0.9 conceded)
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or FC JarfallaEstimated chance62%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences leak heavily (2.4 and 1.8 goals conceded per game) and recent matches have produced high goal totals, supporting the over.
- Järfälla average 2.4 goals conceded per match across last 15 games
- Piteå average 1.8 goals conceded per match across last 15 games
- Järfälla's last 5: 5-0 W, 1-3 L, 0-3 L, 0-2 L, 0-2 L — 16 total goals in 5 games
- Piteå's last 5: 0-2, 0-1, 3-0, 3-4, 1-1 — 15 total goals in 5 games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither defence is reliable enough to keep a clean sheet, and both attacks have shown scoring output in recent matches, making BTTS the value call.
- Piteå scored in 3 of their last 5 matches (3-0, 3-4, 1-1)
- Järfälla scored in 3 of their last 5 matches (5-0, 1-3, 3-1)
- Piteå home: 11 goals in 11 home games; Järfälla away: 15 goals in 11 away games
- Both teams have scored in the majority of recent high-scoring fixtures for each side
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede early regularly (0.9 and 1.2 first-half goals against), so a first-half goal is highly likely.
- Piteå average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match
- Järfälla average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match
- Piteå trailed at half-time in 53% of matches; Järfälla in 40%
- Järfälla's last 5 first halves produced goals in 4 of 5 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both defences conceding heavily and matches frequently opening up late, the second half is likely to produce multiple goals.
- Piteå's last 5 matches produced 15 total goals, with the majority coming after half-time
- Järfälla's last 5 matches produced 16 total goals, heavily weighted to second halves
- Both teams average over 1.5 goals conceded per match across the full 90 minutes
- Late-game defensive collapses are common for both relegation-threatened sides
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Piteå's home defence concedes over two goals per game and Järfälla score regularly on the road, making a home clean sheet very unlikely.
- Piteå conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches
- Piteå home record: 24 goals conceded in 11 home games (2.18 per game)
- Järfälla scored 15 goals in 11 away matches
- Piteå kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Jarfalla to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Järfälla's away defence concedes nearly two goals per game and Piteå score at home, so an away clean sheet is improbable.
- Järfälla conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches
- Järfälla away record: 21 goals conceded in 11 away games (1.9 per game)
- Piteå scored 11 goals in 11 home matches
- Järfälla kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPitea IF to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Piteå's home scoring output is limited to roughly one goal per game and their recent form shows frequent blanks, making under 1.5 a marginal call.
- Piteå average 1.1 goals scored per match across last 15 games
- Piteå home: 11 goals in 11 home matches (1.0 per game)
- Piteå scored 0 or 1 goal in 4 of their last 5 matches
- Piteå's attack has been shut out in 3 of their last 5 fixtures
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostPitea IF under 1.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Järfälla's away scoring rate sits just above 1.3 per game, giving a slight lean to over 1.5 despite recent blanks.
- Järfälla average 1.3 goals scored per match across last 15 games
- Järfälla away: 15 goals in 11 away matches (1.36 per game)
- Järfälla scored 5 in their most recent match vs Karlberg
- Järfälla were shut out in 3 of their last 5 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostFC Jarfalla over 1.5Estimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Järfälla's defence has been consistently leaky (1.9 conceded per away game), making an away win-to-nil highly unlikely.
- Järfälla kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 15 matches
- Järfälla conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches
- Piteå scored in 11 of their 22 league matches at home
- Järfälla's away defence concedes 1.9 goals per game
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Piteå's home defence concedes over two goals per game and they have just one home win, ruling out a home win-to-nil.
- Piteå kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 15 matches
- Piteå conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches
- Piteå home defence concedes 2.18 goals per game
- Piteå have won only 1 home match all season
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance85%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 64% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; the price already reflects Järfälla's three-point survival cushion and Piteå's dire home form.

Prediction history

Pitea IF's Over 2.5 projections have delivered below expectation in recent home and away matches

Pitea IF has fulfilled 2 of 5 Over 2.5 goal projections, with an average estimated probability of 60% and an expected 3 fulfilled predictions. The missed projections had a higher average estimated probability (61.7%) than the matched ones (57.5%), and the current 60% probability sits within the historical range of 55% to 65%. At home, Pitea IF fulfilled 1 of 3 such projections, while away it fulfilled 1 of 2. These recent results indicate that comparable Over 2.5 projections involving Pitea IF have matched actual outcomes less often than the probabilities implied.

Recent evidence for Pitea IF5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Ettan - Norra