Pitea IF3Karlbergs BK0

HT 1–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges2–529%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 07:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Karlbergs BK are the clear favorites against a Piteå side winless at home all season.

The best value lies in the away win at 2.10 (+7 point edge) and the double chance Karlbergs/draw at 1.36 (+6 points). Avoid over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, as those markets are efficiently priced or overpriced.

Context

Pitea IF are 15th in Ettan Norra with 12 points from 19 matches, one point above the relegation line.
Their home record is 0 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with 8 goals scored and 22 conceded. This means they have struggled to get results at home all season. Karlbergs BK have a decent away record with 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, so they can take advantage of Pitea's weakness at home.
- Pitea IF home record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses in 9 matches.
- Pitea IF have scored 8 goals and conceded 22 at home.
Karlbergs BK are 9th in Ettan Norra with 25 points from 19 matches.
In the most recent head-to-head on 24 June 2026, Karlbergs BK won 3-1 at home. That result suggests Karlbergs BK can create chances against Pitea IF. However, that match was at Karlbergs BK's ground, and this match is at Pitea IF's home, so the venue may change things.
- On 2026-06-24, Karlbergs BK beat Pitea IF 3-1 at home.
Piteå IF begin round 20 in 15th place, eight points behind the 13th-place qualifying position.
The home side therefore has a clear incentive to chase points against Karlbergs BK, as a win would reduce the gap to the qualifying route. However, the claim only establishes the standings context and does not imply any change in team selection or tactical approach.
- Ettan’s official table lists Piteå IF FF 15th on 12 points after 19 matches and Karlbergs BK ninth on 25 points.
- Sollentuna FK occupy 13th place on 20 points after 19 matches.
- The competition schedule lists Piteå IF FF against Karlbergs BK at LF Arena in round 20.
- The Swedish Football Association states that the teams finishing 13th in division 1 enter the qualifying route for places in the division.
ConfirmedSources checked 5 Sep 2026, 07:34 · Europe/BucharestEttan Norra table and statisticsettanfotboll.se · 4 Sep 2026Swedish Football Association qualification informationwww.svenskfotboll.se · 24 Aug 2026Ettan round-20 scheduleettanfotboll.se · 4 Sep 2026
Pitea IF are 15th in Ettan Norra with 12 points from 19 matches.
They are one point above the relegation line, so every match is important for them. This may make them more urgent in attack, but their poor home form suggests they may still struggle to get a result.
- Pitea IF are 15th with 12 points, one point above the relegation line.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs' superior away form and Piteå's winless home record make an away win the most likely outcome.
- Piteå home record: 0W 3D 6L, 8 goals for, 22 against in 9 home matches
- Karlbergs away record: 4W 2D 4L, 17 goals for, 13 against in 10 away matches
- H2H last meeting: Karlbergs won 3-1 at home vs Piteå on 2026-06-24
- Piteå overall: 2W 6D 11L, 21 goals for, 40 against
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKarlbergs BKEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Piteå's inability to win at home strongly supports Karlbergs or draw as a safe double chance.
- Piteå home record: 0 wins in 9 home matches
- Karlbergs away record: 4 wins, 2 draws in 10 away matches
- Piteå overall: only 2 wins in 19 matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Karlbergs BKEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs' tendency to lead at halftime and Piteå's tendency to trail make an away halftime lead plausible.
- Karlbergs led at halftime in 53% of matches
- Piteå trailed at halftime in 53% of matches
- Karlbergs first half goals average 1.0 vs Piteå's 0.5
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostKarlbergs BKEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs' tendency to lead at halftime and Piteå's poor home form make a halftime/fulltime away double possible.
- Karlbergs led at halftime in 53% of matches
- Karlbergs won 40% of away matches
- Piteå lost 67% of home matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostKarlbergs BK/Karlbergs BKEstimated chance30%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and H2H show a tendency for high-scoring games, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Piteå home matches average 3.33 total goals (8 for, 22 against in 9)
- Karlbergs away matches average 3.0 total goals (17 for, 13 against in 10)
- H2H last meeting had 4 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS likely.
- Piteå scored in 7 of 9 home matches
- Karlbergs scored in 8 of 10 away matches
- Piteå conceded in 8 of 9 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs' strong first-half scoring and Piteå's first-half defensive weakness suggest potential for multiple first-half goals.
- Piteå first half goals average 0.5 per match, first half conceded 1.1
- Karlbergs first half goals average 1.0 per match, first half conceded 0.3
- Karlbergs led at halftime in 53% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the overall scoring rates, the second half could see multiple goals.
- Piteå average 1.3 goals per match overall, with many goals conceded late
- Karlbergs average 1.5 goals per match overall
- Both teams have shown second-half scoring in recent matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs' away defensive record and Piteå's home scoring tendency make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Karlbergs kept clean sheets in only 2 of 10 away matches
- Piteå scored in 7 of 9 home matches
- Piteå average 0.89 goals per home match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPitea IF to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Piteå's poor home defensive record makes a home clean sheet highly unlikely.
- Piteå conceded in 8 of 9 home matches
- Piteå home goals against average 2.44 per match
- Karlbergs scored in 8 of 10 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKarlbergs BK to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Piteå's low home scoring output makes over 1.5 home goals a risky but possible outcome.
- Piteå home goals average 0.89 per match
- Piteå scored 2+ goals in only 2 of 9 home matches
- Karlbergs away conceded 1.3 goals per match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonPitea IF over 1.5Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs' away scoring strength and Piteå's home defensive weakness support over 1.5 away goals.
- Karlbergs away goals average 1.7 per match
- Karlbergs scored 2+ goals in 6 of 10 away matches
- Piteå home conceded 2.44 goals per match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostKarlbergs BK over 1.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Pitea IF has underperformed Over 2.5 projections recently

Pitea IF has fulfilled 2 of 5 Over 2.5 predictions. The average estimated probability was 60%, but only 40% of matches exceeded 2.5 goals. At home, they fulfilled just 1 of 3 such predictions.

Recent evidence for Pitea IF5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Ettan - Norra