Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

Pitea IF1Vasalunds IF1

HT 0–0Sun 16 Aug 2026, 10:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges7–370%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Aug 2026, 23:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Vasalunds IF are the most likely winner given Piteå's dreadful home record (0W 2D 6L) and the H2H pattern of away wins, but at 1.80 there is no value.

The only positive edge is 'Win Both Halves – No' at 1.22 (+3.0 points), while first-half markets are significantly overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Home record: 0W 2D 6L in Ettan Norra.
- Conceded in all 8 home games, averaging 2.6 goals against.
- Led at half-time in only 7% of matches, trailing in 60%.
Last four H2H results: 1-2 Piteå, 0-1 Piteå, 0-1 Vasalund, 2-0 Piteå.
- Most recent meeting: Vasalund 1-2 Piteå on 10 May 2026.
- No home win in this fixture since October 2023.
Piteå home: 7 goals for, 21 against in 8 games.
- Vasalund away: 11 goals for, 19 against in 8 games.
- BTTS hit in 6 of Piteå's home games and 7 of Vasalund's away games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 9

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Vasalunds IF

1.80fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Piteå's home record is 0W 2D 6L and Vasalund's away form is slightly better, but the market price already reflects this.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Vasalunds IF

1.29fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Piteå's inability to win at home supports the double chance, but the odds offer no value.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Vasalunds IF

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Piteå rarely leads at half time, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

High-scoring home/away splits and recent H2H meetings support Over 2.5, but odds are slightly below our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring and conceding records, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goal average is above 1, but the odds are heavily skewed toward Over 0.5.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.22fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

First-half goal averages suggest both teams scoring is unlikely, but the odds are extremely low.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Vasalunds IF to score

1.13fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Piteå's poor home defense and Vasalund's consistent away scoring make a home clean sheet very unlikely.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Pitea IF to score

1.33fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Vasalund's leaky away defense and Piteå's home scoring make an away clean sheet unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vasalund's superior away form and Piteå's dreadful home record, combined with the H2H pattern of away wins, make Vasalund the most likely winner.
- Vasalund away record: 1W 3D 4L, but Piteå home record: 0W 2D 6L
- Piteå last 5 form: DLLDL, Vasalund last 5: WDLLD
- H2H last 4: away team won each time, including Piteå 2-1 at Vasalund in May 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVasalunds IFEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Piteå's inability to win at home (0 wins in 8) makes the double chance of Draw or Vasalund a strong option.
- Piteå home record: 0W 2D 6L, only 2 draws in 8 home games
- Vasalund away record: 1W 3D 4L, draws in 3 of 8 away games
- Piteå last 5: 2 draws, 3 losses
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Vasalunds IFEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into half time level, with Piteå rarely leading and Vasalund not dominant enough to be clear favorites.
- Piteå leading at half time in 7% of matches, trailing in 60%
- Vasalund leading at half time in 33%, trailing in 27%
- Both teams have high draw percentages at half time in recent matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Vasalund win is plausible given Piteå's poor home form and Vasalund's away capability.
- Piteå home record: 0W 2D 6L, often trailing at half time
- Vasalund away record: 1W 3D 4L, but capable of winning
- H2H pattern: away team wins
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Vasalunds IFEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the poor form of both teams, especially Piteå at home, it is highly unlikely either team wins both halves.
- Piteå has not won a home game all season
- Vasalund has only 1 away win in 8 games
- Neither team shows dominance to win both halves
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Piteå rarely leads at half time, making Draw or Vasalund the safer first half double chance.
- Piteå leading at half time in only 7% of matches
- Vasalund leading at half time in 33% of matches
- Piteå trailing at half time in 60% of matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Vasalunds IFEstimated chance65%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring home/away splits, and recent H2H meetings have seen goals, supporting Over 2.5.
- Piteå home games average 3.5 total goals (7 for, 21 against in 8 games)
- Vasalund away games average 3.75 total goals (11 for, 19 against in 8 games)
- Last H2H: 2-1, previous H2Hs: 1-0, 0-1, 2-0
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Piteå scored in 6 of 8 home games, conceded in all 8
- Vasalund scored in 7 of 8 away games, conceded in 7 of 8
- Last H2H: both teams scored (2-1)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede in the first half, with a combined average above 1 goal, making Over 0.5 first half goals likely.
- Piteå first half goals for average: 0.4, against: 1.1
- Vasalund first half goals for average: 0.7, against: 0.7
- Combined first half goal average: 1.45
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to see more goals for both teams, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Piteå second half goals for average: 0.8, against: 1.0
- Vasalund second half goals for average: 0.8, against: 1.0
- Combined second half goal average: 1.8
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first half goal averages suggest that both teams scoring in the first half is less likely than not.
- Piteå first half goals for average: 0.4, against: 1.1
- Vasalund first half goals for average: 0.7, against: 0.7
- Combined first half BTTS rate is low based on averages
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Piteå's home defensive record is poor, and Vasalund consistently scores away, making a home clean sheet very unlikely.
- Piteå conceded in all 8 home games this season
- Vasalund scored in 7 of 8 away games
- Piteå goals against average at home: 2.6
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonVasalunds IF to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasalund's away defense is leaky, and Piteå manages to score at home, so an away clean sheet is unlikely.
- Vasalund conceded in 7 of 8 away games
- Piteå scored in 6 of 8 home games
- Vasalund goals against average away: 2.4
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPitea IF to scoreEstimated chance70%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 29.4% vs our estimate ~25% leaves no value; Piteå's home form is dreadful and the price is fair.

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

W1-2VasalundvPiteåMay 10, 2026ETT

W0-1VasalundvPiteåNov 3, 2024ETT

W0-1PiteåvVasalundMay 9, 2024ETT

L2-0PiteåvVasalundOct 22, 2023ETT

L2-1VasalundvPiteåApr 15, 2023ETT

Pitea IF: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Ettan - Norra 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Pitea IF	16	2	4	10	16-34	10	DLLDL
10	Vasalunds IF	16	5	4	7	23-31	19	WDLLD

9pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Pitea IF

D0-0ArlandaAug 9ETT

L0-2Gefle IFAug 1ETT

L1-3KarlbergJun 24ETT

D2-2AFC EskilstunaJun 21ETT

L0-2Umeå FCJun 12ETT

L0-2EnköpingJun 7ETT

W3-2Ostra ErsbodaJun 3SVE

D2-2Stockholm InternazionaleMay 31ETT

D2-2SollentunaMay 24ETT

W3-2StocksundMay 17ETT

L1-5FBK KarlstadMay 14ETT

W2-1VasalundMay 10ETT

L1-2ArlandaMay 3ETT

L0-1JärfällaApr 26ETT

L1-4Hammarby TalangApr 19ETT

Vasalunds IF

W2-0Stockholm InternazionaleAug 9ETT

D1-1SollentunaAug 3ETT

L1-3Assyriska FFJun 26ETT

L0-4KarlbergJun 18ETT

D1-1EnköpingJun 14ETT

L1-4Stockholm InternazionaleJun 8ETT

W3-1JärfällaJun 3ETT

W1-0Assyriska FFMay 28SVE

W3-0AFC EskilstunaMay 24ETT

L0-5IF KarlstadMay 17ETT

W1-0Gefle IFMay 14ETT

L1-2PiteåMay 10ETT

D2-2StocksundMay 1ETT

D2-2Hammarby TalangApr 27ETT

W3-1Umeå FCApr 19ETT

Squad & Injuries

Pitea IF

24 available

Attackers7

Midfielders6

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Vasalunds IF

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Vasalunds IF

Draw or Vasalunds IF

Draw or Vasalunds IF

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

No

Vasalunds IF to score

Pitea IF to score

Result4 of 6 landed

Goals4 of 7 landed

Markets to Avoid

Pitea IF

Over 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Pitea IF

Vasalunds IF

Squad & Injuries

Pitea IF

Vasalunds IF