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GIF SundsvallLjungskile

Sun 20 Sept 2026, 11:0020 Sept, 11:00

14Probabilities0Priced7Edges85%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 21:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Ljungskile are slight favorites on form, but the odds are too short to back them.

Avoid the overpriced goals and first-half markets; the only high-confidence play is 'No' on Win Both Halves, but no odds are available. Wait for better prices or skip this match.

Context

GIF Sundsvall's reported move away from a five-back line and Ljungskile's recent head-coach change and confirmed 4-2-3-1 shape alter both teams' tactical setup.

GIF Sundsvall are 16th in the 16-team Superettan with 16 points from 24 matches, 8 points from safety.
Their recent form is poor: they lost 4-0 away to Landskrona BoIS on 15 September and 3-0 at home to Orebro SK on 10 September. They have also conceded 26 goals in 12 home matches. This suggests they may struggle to contain Ljungskile's attack.
- GIF Sundsvall are 16th with 16 points from 24 matches, 8 points from safety.
- They lost 4-0 away to Landskrona BoIS on 15 September and 3-0 at home to Orebro SK on 10 September.
- They have conceded 51 goals in 24 matches, the most in the league.
Ljungskile are 11th with 28 points from 24 matches, 4 points above the relegation playoff spot.
Their away record is 2 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses. In their last away match, they drew 2-2 with IFK Norrkoping on 4 September. This suggests they may find it difficult to beat Sundsvall away from home.
- Ljungskile have won 2, drawn 6, and lost 3 of 11 away matches.
- They drew 2-2 away to IFK Norrkoping on 4 September.
- They have not won an away league match since 19 July (3-2 at IFK Varnamo).
GIF Sundsvall head coach Per Joar Hansen has publicly moved away from a five-back line, though the match XI is unconfirmed.
This shifts the reference point for Sundsvall's defensive organisation and wide coverage. Without a confirmed lineup, the exact back-four structure and personnel remain uncertain.
- GIF Sundsvall appointed Per Joar Hansen to lead the team for the autumn on 7 July.
- GIF Sundsvall's current staff page lists Hansen as head coach.
- Sportbladet reported that Hansen said the team would stop using a five-back line.
ReportedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 21:54 · Europe/BucharestGIF Sundsvall appoints a new head coachgifsundsvall.se · 7 Jul 2026GIF Sundsvall coaching staffgifsundsvall.se · 1 Feb 2026Hansen and Lagerbäck take over GIF Sundsvallwww.aftonbladet.se · 7 Jul 2026
Sundsvall's home record is 3 wins, 1 draw, and 8 losses, with 11 goals scored and 26 conceded.
In their last home match, they lost 3-0 to Orebro SK on 10 September. They have scored only 2 goals in their last 6 home matches. This suggests they may struggle to break down Ljungskile's defense.
- Sundsvall have scored 11 goals in 12 home matches.
- They lost 3-0 at home to Orebro SK on 10 September.
- They have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 home league matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ljungskile

1.85fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

Sundsvall's poor home defensive record and Ljungskile's superior away resilience support the away side, but the odds already reflect that edge.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Ljungskile

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Sundsvall's low home win rate and Ljungskile's high away draw rate make the double chance statistically appealing, but the odds are too short to offer value.

1 St Half Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Ljungskile

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

High draw rates and low win rates support the first-half double chance, but the odds are extremely short and offer no value.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches show a tendency for multiple goals, with Sundsvall's leaky defense and Ljungskile's decent away scoring supporting over 2.5.

Both Teams To ScoreUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high rates of scoring and conceding in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS a likely outcome.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The combined first-half scoring rates suggest a goal before halftime is more likely than not.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScoreUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

The low first-half scoring rates for both teams make it unlikely that both will score before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result7 outcomes · top 85%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ljungskile's superior away resilience and Sundsvall's poor home defensive record give the visitors a slight edge, supported by the recent H2H win.
- GIF Sundsvall home record: 3W-1D-8L, 11 goals for, 26 against in 12 matches
- Ljungskile away record: 2W-6D-3L, 15 goals for, 14 against in 11 matches
- GIF Sundsvall last 5 form: LLWWL; Ljungskile last 5 form: LWDLD
- H2H last meeting: Ljungskile won 1-0 at home in May 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerLjungskileEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sundsvall's low home win rate and Ljungskile's high away draw rate make the double chance for the away side a strong statistical play.
- GIF Sundsvall home win rate: 25% (3/12)
- Ljungskile away loss rate: 27% (3/11)
- Combined draw probability from recent form: Sundsvall 1 draw in 12 home, Ljungskile 6 draws in 11 away
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or LjungskileEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be level at the break, making a first-half draw the most likely single outcome.
- GIF Sundsvall leading at half-time in 13% of matches, trailing in 33%
- Ljungskile leading at half-time in 13% of matches, trailing in 20%
- Both teams have high rates of drawing at half-time (54% and 67% respectively)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sundsvall's poor second-half defensive record gives Ljungskile a slight edge to win the second period.
- Ljungskile average second-half goal difference: +0.0 (0.8 scored - 0.8 conceded)
- Sundsvall average second-half goal difference: -1.0 (0.2 scored - 1.2 conceded)
- Sundsvall have lost 18 of 24 matches overall, often conceding late
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerLjungskileEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Ljungskile win is a plausible but low-probability sequence given the teams' patterns.
- Sundsvall draw at half-time in 54% of matches
- Ljungskile win full-time in 29% of matches
- Combined probability estimate based on independent events
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleDraw/LjungskileEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The low frequency of either team winning both halves makes 'No' a high-confidence selection.
- GIF Sundsvall have won both halves in only 1 of 24 matches (4%)
- Ljungskile have won both halves in 2 of 24 matches (8%)
- Neither team shows consistent dominance across both halves
BetBugs · Win Both HalvesNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the high draw rates and low win rates, the double chance for Ljungskile or draw in the first half is strongly supported.
- Sundsvall first-half win rate: 13%; Ljungskile first-half win rate: 13%
- Draw at half-time probability: 54% for Sundsvall, 67% for Ljungskile
- Combined probability of draw or Ljungskile leading at half-time is high
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or LjungskileEstimated chance70%

Goals5 outcomes · top 65%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches show a tendency for multiple goals, with Sundsvall's leaky defense and Ljungskile's decent away scoring supporting over 2.5.
- GIF Sundsvall home matches average 3.08 total goals (37 goals in 12 games)
- Ljungskile away matches average 2.64 total goals (29 goals in 11 games)
- Sundsvall conceded 2.1 goals per game overall; Ljungskile scored 1.3 per game overall
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high rates of scoring and conceding in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS a likely outcome.
- GIF Sundsvall scored in 8 of 12 home matches (67%)
- Ljungskile scored in 9 of 11 away matches (82%)
- Sundsvall conceded in 11 of 12 home matches (92%)
- Ljungskile conceded in 8 of 11 away matches (73%)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring rates suggest a goal before halftime is more likely than not.
- GIF Sundsvall first-half goals per game: 0.3; first-half goals conceded: 0.9
- Ljungskile first-half goals per game: 0.5; first-half goals conceded: 0.5
- Combined average first-half goals in matches involving these teams: 1.1
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates are moderate, but the combined average of 1.5 goals makes this a coin-flip proposition.
- Sundsvall average second-half goals: 0.2 (total 0.5 - first half 0.3)
- Ljungskile average second-half goals: 0.8 (total 1.3 - first half 0.5)
- Sundsvall average second-half goals conceded: 1.2 (total 2.1 - first half 0.9)
- Ljungskile average second-half goals conceded: 0.8 (total 1.3 - first half 0.5)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The low first-half scoring rates for both teams make it unlikely that both will score before the break.
- Sundsvall first-half goals per game: 0.3; Ljungskile first-half goals per game: 0.5
- Combined first-half scoring rate is low, with both teams scoring in the first half in only 20% of matches
- Sundsvall failed to score in first half in 70% of matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance65%

Match stats2 outcomes · top 50%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest a total around 9-10, making over 8.5 a borderline call.
- GIF Sundsvall average corners per match: 2.7; opponent corners: 6.0 (total 8.7)
- Ljungskile average corners per match: 5.8; opponent corners: 5.0 (total 10.8)
- Combined average total corners in matches involving these teams: 9.75
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages are close to the 7.5 line, making this a near coin-flip.
- GIF Sundsvall average shots on target per match: 2.7; opponent shots on target: 5.0 (total 7.7)
- Ljungskile average shots on target per match: 5.0; opponent shots on target: 4.0 (total 9.0)
- Combined average total shots on target: 8.35
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 7.5Estimated chance50%