SuperettanUpcoming

IK BrageGIF Sundsvall

Sat 5 Sept 2026, 15:005 Sept, 15:00

12Probabilities0Priced8Edges72%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 04:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Brage are favoured at home against bottom side Sundsvall, but the odds are too short to back them.

The only positive betting edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.30, driven by Brage's high-scoring home games and Sundsvall's poor away defence.

Context

Brage's relegation-playoff position and Sundsvall's eight-point gap make the result directly relevant to survival, while Sundsvall's reported defensive switch and assistant coach departure affect their preparation.

IK Brage are 14th in the Superettan with 21 points from 21 matches. They have won 5, drawn 6, and lost 10, scoring 35 and conceding 42.
They are one point above 13th-placed IFK Varnamo, who occupy the relegation playoff spot. A win against bottom side GIF Sundsvall would give them breathing room, but a loss could drop them into the playoff zone depending on other results.
- IK Brage are 14th with 21 points, one point above the relegation playoff line.
- Their recent form is LLDLW, with three losses in their last four league matches.
Brage sit 14th after their 29 August defeat at Falkenberg, while Sundsvall remain bottom despite a 31 August win over Norrby that left them eight points behind Brage's relegation-playoff spot.
The points gap and relegation positions make this result directly relevant to each side's survival prospects, increasing the incentive to manage game-state risk carefully. Brage's home advantage and Sundsvall's poor away form support a home win or draw, but the stakes may also lead to cautious play from both teams.
- IK Brage reported that the Falkenberg defeat dropped the club to 14th with nine league matches left.
- Fotbollskanalen reported that Sundsvall’s 1-0 win over Norrby was their first league victory since 18 May.
- The same report placed Sundsvall eight points behind Brage while still bottom of Superettan.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 04:54 · Europe/BucharestIK Brage: Intervjuer efter FFFwww.ikbrage.se · 29 Aug 2026Fotbollskanalen: GIF Sundsvall 1-0 Norrbywww.fotbollskanalen.se · 31 Aug 2026
GIF Sundsvall are 16th in the Superettan with 13 points from 21 matches. They have won 4, drawn 1, and lost 16, scoring 15 and conceding 44.
Their away record is particularly poor: 1 win, 0 draws, and 9 losses in 10 matches, with only 4 goals scored and 21 conceded. This suggests they struggle on the road, and facing a relegation rival away from home adds pressure.
- GIF Sundsvall are 16th with 13 points, 9 points from safety.
- Away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 9 losses in 10 matches, with 4 goals scored and 21 conceded.
The teams have met five times since February 2025, with IK Brage winning three and GIF Sundsvall winning two.
In the most recent league meeting on 20 April 2026, IK Brage won 2-1 away. They also won 2-0 away on 22 May 2025. These results suggest IK Brage have had the upper hand recently, though the sample is small and both teams have changed since.
- 20 April 2026: GIF Sundsvall 1-2 IK Brage (Superettan).
- 22 May 2025: GIF Sundsvall 0-2 IK Brage (Superettan).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

IK Brage

1.67fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Sundsvall's away record is dreadful (1W 0D 9L) but Brage's own home struggles and the market's strong favouritism leave no value at 1.67.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

IK Brage or Draw

1.20fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 83.3%

−11.3ppshort

The market prices Brage or Draw at 83% implied probability, far above our 72% estimate, leaving no value despite the high confidence in the outcome.

1 St Half Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

IK Brage or Draw

1.17fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 85.5%

−15.5ppshort

The first-half double chance is priced at 85% implied probability, far above our 70% estimate, offering no value.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Brage's home games average 4.5 total goals and Sundsvall's away defense is leaky, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Both Teams To ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Brage's home games often see both teams score, but Sundsvall's away attack is weak, making the odds slightly unfavorable.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goal rate is 1.2 per match, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.22fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, but the odds heavily favor no, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result7 outcomes · top 72%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brage's home advantage and Sundsvall's dreadful away form (1 win in 10) make a home win the most likely single outcome, supported by H2H dominance.
- IK Brage home record: 2W 4D 4L, 22 goals scored, 23 conceded in 10 home matches.
- GIF Sundsvall away record: 1W 0D 9L, 4 goals scored, 21 conceded in 10 away matches.
- H2H last 5: IK Brage won 3, GIF Sundsvall won 1, 1 draw; Brage won both 2026 meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerIK BrageEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sundsvall's away form is extremely poor, making a Brage win or draw highly likely; Brage's home draws also support this double chance.
- IK Brage home record: 2W 4D 4L, 22 goals scored, 23 conceded in 10 home matches.
- GIF Sundsvall away record: 1W 0D 9L, 4 goals scored, 21 conceded in 10 away matches.
- H2H last 5: IK Brage won 3, GIF Sundsvall won 1, 1 draw.
BetBugs · Double ChanceIK Brage or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brage's home advantage and Sundsvall's poor away form give Brage a slight edge to lead at half-time, but the probability is low due to both teams' tendency to draw first halves.
- IK Brage first-half record: leading at half-time in 13% of matches, trailing in 27%.
- GIF Sundsvall first-half record: leading at half-time in 13% of matches, trailing in 27%.
- H2H last 5: Brage led at half-time in 2 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerIK BrageEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brage's home scoring and Sundsvall's away defensive struggles suggest Brage may win the second half, but confidence is low due to variability.
- IK Brage home matches: 22 goals scored, 23 conceded in 10 games, indicating second-half scoring.
- GIF Sundsvall away matches: 4 goals scored, 21 conceded in 10 games, weak second-half defense.
- H2H last 5: Brage won second half in 3 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerIK BrageEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brage winning both halves is possible given Sundsvall's away weakness, but Brage's own inconsistency makes this a low-probability outcome.
- IK Brage home record: 2W 4D 4L, with only 2 wins in 10 home matches.
- GIF Sundsvall away record: 1W 0D 9L, with 9 losses in 10 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Brage won both 2026 meetings, but not necessarily leading at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleIK Brage/IK BrageEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brage winning both halves is unlikely given their inconsistent home form, despite Sundsvall's poor away record.
- IK Brage home matches: only 2 wins in 10, with 4 draws and 4 losses.
- GIF Sundsvall away matches: 1 win in 10, with 9 losses.
- H2H last 5: Brage won 3 matches, but none by winning both halves.
BetBugs · Win Both HalvesIK BrageEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brage or draw at half-time is likely because Sundsvall rarely leads at half-time away from home, and Brage's home advantage helps.
- IK Brage first-half record: leading at half-time in 13% of matches, trailing in 27%.
- GIF Sundsvall first-half record: leading at half-time in 13% of matches, trailing in 27%.
- H2H last 5: Brage led at half-time in 2 of 5 meetings, draw in 2, Sundsvall led in 1.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfIK Brage or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals5 outcomes · top 65%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brage's home games are high-scoring and Sundsvall's away defense is leaky, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- IK Brage home matches average 4.5 total goals (22 scored, 23 conceded in 10).
- GIF Sundsvall away matches average 2.5 total goals (4 scored, 21 conceded in 10).
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brage's home games often see both teams score, and Sundsvall's away defense is weak enough to concede while Brage's defense is not solid.
- IK Brage home matches: scored in 8 of 10, conceded in 9 of 10.
- GIF Sundsvall away matches: scored in 3 of 10, conceded in 9 of 10.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to concede in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- IK Brage first-half goals: 0.5 per match average; first-half goals conceded: 0.9 per match.
- GIF Sundsvall first-half goals: 0.3 per match average; first-half goals conceded: 0.7 per match.
- Combined first-half goal rate: 1.2 goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half often sees more goals as teams push for results, especially with Brage's high-scoring home games and Sundsvall's poor away defense.
- IK Brage home matches average 4.5 total goals, with many goals coming after halftime.
- GIF Sundsvall away matches average 2.5 total goals, with 21 conceded in 10 away games.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making it unlikely that both teams score before halftime.
- IK Brage first-half goals: 0.5 per match; first-half goals conceded: 0.9 per match.
- GIF Sundsvall first-half goals: 0.3 per match; first-half goals conceded: 0.7 per match.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in first half in only 1 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance60%