Landskrona BoIS4GIF Sundsvall0

HT 3–0Tue 15 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 21–2On targetOn target 11–1CornersCorners 9–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 04:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Landskrona are strong favorites at home against a poor Sundsvall side, but the odds offer no value on the home win or double chance.

The best betting angle is to avoid the overpriced first-half goals market, where the implied probability far exceeds the model estimate.

Context

GIF Sundsvall are 16th in Superettan with 16 points from 23 matches, 7 points from safety.
Their away record is poor: 2 wins and 9 losses in 11 games, with only 5 goals scored and 21 conceded. Landskrona BoIS have a solid home record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, so Sundsvall face a tough task to get a result.
- Sundsvall are 16th with 16 points, 7 points behind 13th-placed Norrby IF.
- Away record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 9 losses, 5 goals for, 21 against.
- Landskrona home record: 3 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses, 13 goals for, 12 against.
The teams have met five times in Superettan since 2024.
In the last two matches at Landskrona, the home side won 2-1 in August 2025 and drew 0-0 in August 2024. Sundsvall's only win in the series came at home in May 2026, so Landskrona have a clear edge when hosting.
- 2025-08-30: Landskrona BoIS 2-1 GIF Sundsvall (home win).
- 2024-08-12: Landskrona BoIS 0-0 GIF Sundsvall (draw).
- 2026-05-18: GIF Sundsvall 2-1 Landskrona BoIS (away win for Landskrona).
GIF Sundsvall goalkeeper D. Henareh left the 10 September home match against Örebro in the 51st minute with a thigh injury.
His availability for this fixture is not confirmed, so Sundsvall may need to change their goalkeeper. J. Olsson has started in that position in two of the four recent matches where Henareh did not start, which gives a concrete replacement option but leaves the defensive organisation less certain.
- Lokalfotbollen reported that Henareh was substituted in the 51st minute against Örebro because of a thigh injury.
- J. Olsson started in the same position in 2 of the 4 recent team fixtures with available lineups when D. Henareh did not start.
ReportedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 04:01 · Europe/BucharestLokalfotbollen match reportlokalfotbollen.nu · 10 Sep 2026
Sundsvall's away form has been poor all season, with 21 goals conceded in 11 away matches.
In their last two away Superettan matches, they lost 5-0 at Sandviken on August 1 and 5-2 at Helsingborg on June 21. Landskrona average 1.5 goals per game overall, so they may find chances against this defence.
- 2026-08-01: Sandviken 5-0 GIF Sundsvall.
- 2026-06-21: Helsingborg 5-2 GIF Sundsvall.
- Sundsvall away goals conceded: 21 in 11 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Landskrona BoIS

1.45fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Landskrona's superior league position and Sundsvall's dreadful away form give the home side a clear edge, though Landskrona's many home draws temper confidence.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Landskrona BoIS or Draw

1.11fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 90.1%

−8.1ppshort

Landskrona's strong home form and Sundsvall's poor away record make a home win or draw highly likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's 65% estimate is far below the 80% implied by the odds; this is a negative-value trap despite the low line.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's superior league position and Sundsvall's dreadful away form give the home side a clear edge, though Landskrona's many home draws temper confidence.
- Landskrona BoIS home record: 3W-5D-3L, 13 goals for, 12 against in 11 home matches
- GIF Sundsvall away record: 2W-0D-9L, 5 goals for, 21 against in 11 away matches
- Landskrona BoIS overall points: 34 vs GIF Sundsvall 16; goal difference +6 vs -31
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLandskrona BoISEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's strong home form and Sundsvall's poor away record make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Landskrona BoIS home record: 3W-5D-3L, 13 goals for, 12 against in 11 home matches
- GIF Sundsvall away record: 2W-0D-9L, 5 goals for, 21 against in 11 away matches
- Landskrona BoIS overall points: 34 vs GIF Sundsvall 16; goal difference +6 vs -31
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLandskrona BoIS or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's better first-half scoring and Sundsvall's tendency to trail at the break give the home side a slight edge.
- Landskrona BoIS leading at half time: 33%, trailing at half time: 33%
- GIF Sundsvall leading at half time: 13%, trailing at half time: 33%
- Landskrona BoIS average first half goals: 0.7, first half goals conceded: 0.6
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLandskrona BoISEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's home advantage and Sundsvall's poor away form make a home win from start to finish plausible.
- Landskrona BoIS home record: 3W-5D-3L, 13 goals for, 12 against in 11 home matches
- GIF Sundsvall away record: 2W-0D-9L, 5 goals for, 21 against in 11 away matches
- Landskrona BoIS leading at half time: 33%, trailing at half time: 33%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonLandskrona BoIS / Landskrona BoISEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sundsvall's leaky defense and Landskrona's decent scoring rate suggest a match with multiple goals.
- Landskrona BoIS average goals for: 1.5, goals against: 1.1 in last 15 matches
- GIF Sundsvall average goals for: 0.5, goals against: 2.1 in last 15 matches
- GIF Sundsvall away record: 5 goals for, 21 against in 11 away matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score, with Landskrona's home games often featuring goals at both ends.
- Landskrona BoIS average goals for: 1.5, goals against: 1.1 in last 15 matches
- GIF Sundsvall average goals for: 0.5, goals against: 2.1 in last 15 matches
- Landskrona BoIS home record: 13 goals for, 12 against in 11 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals, with Landskrona's matches often having early action.
- Landskrona BoIS average first half goals: 0.7, first half goals conceded: 0.6 in last 15 matches
- GIF Sundsvall average first half goals: 0.3, first half goals conceded: 0.8 in last 15 matches
- Landskrona BoIS leading at half time: 33%, trailing at half time: 33%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sundsvall's defensive struggles often lead to second-half goals, and Landskrona's scoring rate supports a productive second half.
- Landskrona BoIS average goals for: 1.5, goals against: 1.1 in last 15 matches
- GIF Sundsvall average goals for: 0.5, goals against: 2.1 in last 15 matches
- GIF Sundsvall away record: 5 goals for, 21 against in 11 away matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's corner numbers and Sundsvall's defensive pressure suggest a moderate total corner count.
- Landskrona BoIS average corners: 6.4, opponent corners: 5.8 in last 15 matches
- GIF Sundsvall average corners: 3.3, opponent corners: 6.0 in last 15 matches
- Landskrona BoIS home corners: 6.4, away corners: 3.3
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target averages suggest a moderate total, though Sundsvall's low output adds uncertainty.
- Landskrona BoIS average shots on target: 5.8, opponent shots on target: 4.4 in last 15 matches
- GIF Sundsvall average shots on target: 2.8, opponent shots on target: 5.5 in last 15 matches
- Landskrona BoIS home shots on target: 5.8, away shots on target: 2.8
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's higher foul and card counts suggest a match with several bookings.
- Landskrona BoIS average yellow cards: 2.6, opponent yellow cards: 2.2 in last 15 matches
- GIF Sundsvall average yellow cards: 1.2, opponent yellow cards: 1.5 in last 15 matches
- Landskrona BoIS average fouls: 15, opponent fouls: 12 in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%