Over 1.5
Market 55.6% · BetBugs 65%
Nordic United have scored 2+ goals in 75% of home matches, and Ljungskile's away defense has conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5, offering value at 1.80.
SuperettanFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Nordic United's strong home form (5W-2D-1L) and Ljungskile's aggressive press set up a likely high-scoring affair, but the best value lies in Nordic to score over 1.5 goals at 1.80 (65% estimated probability vs.
55.6% implied). Avoid backing Nordic to win outright or lead at halftime, as the market overprices those outcomes given Ljungskile's momentum and Nordic's slow starts.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 55.6% · BetBugs 65%
Nordic United have scored 2+ goals in 75% of home matches, and Ljungskile's away defense has conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5, offering value at 1.80.
Market 45.5% · BetBugs 55%
Nordic United's home matches average 1.1 first-half goals, and Ljungskile's away matches average 1.0, with both teams showing a trend of early action, offering value at 2.20.
Other edges · 4
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 72% · Market 74%
Nordic United are unbeaten in 7 of 8 home matches (5W-2D-1L) while Ljungskile have failed to win 6 of 8 away (2W-3D-3L), making a home win or draw highly probable.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 49% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; the price already reflects the home advantage and recent H2H win, offering negative value.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nordic United | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26-23 | 26 |
| 9 | Ljungskile | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 23-21 | 22 |

