SuperettanFull time

Predictions graded

GIF Sundsvall0Orebro SK3

HT 0–1Thu 10 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–283%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 12–15On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 1–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 04:36 · Europe/Bucharest

A relegation six-pointer with both teams in poor form, but the market overprices Orebro's chances: the away win (1.91) and double chance (1.29) offer negative value relative to model estimates.

The only near-neutral market is Over 2.5 goals, but even that lacks a clear edge, so the best approach is to avoid most pre-match bets or wait for live opportunities.

Context

GIF Sundsvall are 16th in Superettan with 16 points from 22 matches, seven points from safety.
They have the worst defensive record in the division, conceding 44 goals, and their home form is poor with only three wins in 11 games. This suggests Orebro can create chances even away from home, though Sundsvall's recent back-to-back wins show they can still compete.
- GIF Sundsvall are 16th with 16 points from 22 matches.
- They have conceded 44 goals, the most in Superettan.
- At home they have won only 3 of 11 matches, conceding 23 goals.
Sundsvall sit 16th on 16 points and Örebro 15th on 20 points after 22 rounds, both in direct-relegation places.
A result between the league's bottom two directly changes the gap to the direct-relegation places, raising the incentive for both sides to secure points. The linked analysis sees Örebro's slightly better away form and Sundsvall's poor home record giving the visitors a narrow edge, though the stakes keep confidence moderate.
- SVT Text’s 9 September table lists Örebro 15th on 20 points and Sundsvall 16th on 16 points after 22 matches.
- The Superettan table guidance identifies places 15 and 16 as direct relegation positions.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 04:34 · Europe/BucharestSVT Text: Superettan table and fixtureswww.svt.se · 9 Sep 2026Sverigesfotboll.se: Superettan standingssverigesfotboll.se · 7 Sep 2026
Orebro SK are 15th in Superettan with 20 points from 21 matches, three points above the bottom.
Their away record is poor: one win, five draws, and five losses in 11 games, with 20 goals conceded. That gives Sundsvall some hope, but Orebro's recent form includes a win and a draw, so they are not completely out of form.
- Orebro SK are 15th with 20 points from 21 matches.
- Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws, and 5 losses.
- They have conceded 20 goals in 11 away matches.
The teams met on 10 June 2026, with Sundsvall winning 1-0 at Orebro.
Sundsvall defended deep and scored the only goal, while Orebro had 69% possession and 12 shots but could not break through. That result may give Sundsvall confidence, but it was three months ago and both teams have changed since.
- On 10 June 2026, GIF Sundsvall won 1-0 away at Orebro SK.
- Sundsvall had 31% possession and 7 shots, while Orebro had 69% possession and 12 shots.
- Sundsvall scored the only goal despite being outshot.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Orebro SK

1.92fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 52%

0.0ppshort

Despite the predictor's 42% estimate, the market odds imply 52%, meaning the away win is overpriced and offers no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Orebro SK

1.28fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 78%

0.0ppshort

The market price of 1.29 implies 78%, far above the predictor's 68% estimate, so the double chance is overvalued.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Orebro SK

1.21fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

The odds of 1.20 imply 83%, while the predictor estimates 70%, indicating the market is too short on the away/draw double chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.78fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams concede heavily and their combined home/away averages suggest a high-scoring contest, especially with relegation pressure forcing attacking intent.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Orebro's strong first-half scoring record and Sundsvall's tendency to concede early make a first-half goal probable.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Sundsvall's low first-half scoring makes it unlikely both teams score before the break, despite Orebro's attacking threat.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Orebro SK's slightly better away form and Sundsvall's poor home record give the visitors a narrow edge, though the relegation stakes and recent H2H split keep confidence moderate.
- Orebro SK away record: 1W 5D 5L, 12 goals for, 20 against in 11 away matches
- GIF Sundsvall home record: 3W 1D 7L, 11 goals for, 23 against in 11 home matches
- H2H last 5: Orebro SK 2W, Sundsvall 2W, 1D; most recent meeting Sundsvall won 1-0 away
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOrebro SKEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sundsvall's home struggles and Orebro's ability to draw away make the double chance for the away side a solid option.
- Orebro SK away record: 1W 5D 5L, 12 goals for, 20 against in 11 away matches
- GIF Sundsvall home record: 3W 1D 7L, 11 goals for, 23 against in 11 home matches
- H2H last 5: Orebro SK 2W, Sundsvall 2W, 1D
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Orebro SKEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Orebro's superior first-half scoring and Sundsvall's slow starts give the visitors an edge in the opening period.
- Orebro average first half goals: 1.1; Sundsvall average first half goals: 0.3
- Orebro leading at half time in 47% of matches; Sundsvall leading at half time in 13%
- Sundsvall trailing at half time in 27% of matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonOrebro SKEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams likely to trade goals, the second half could end level, especially if the match is tight.
- Sundsvall average goals conceded: 1.9 per match; Orebro average goals conceded: 1.8 per match
- Both teams have similar second-half scoring patterns in recent matches
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 away wins, 1 home win
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by an Orebro win is a plausible scenario given the visitors' second-half resilience and Sundsvall's home fragility.
- Orebro leading at half time in 47% of matches; Sundsvall trailing at half time in 27%
- Orebro away record: 1W 5D 5L; Sundsvall home record: 3W 1D 7L
- H2H last 5: Orebro SK 2W, Sundsvall 2W, 1D
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Orebro SKEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown consistent dominance to win both halves, especially with Sundsvall's poor home form and Orebro's mixed away results.
- Sundsvall average first half goals: 0.3; Orebro average first half goals: 1.1
- Sundsvall home record: 3W 1D 7L; Orebro away record: 1W 5D 5L
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 away wins, 1 home win
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Orebro's strong first-half record and Sundsvall's slow starts make the away side or a draw the most likely half-time outcome.
- Orebro average first half goals: 1.1; Sundsvall average first half goals: 0.3
- Orebro leading at half time in 47% of matches; Sundsvall leading at half time in 13%
- Sundsvall trailing at half time in 27% of matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Orebro SKEstimated chance70%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede heavily, and their combined home/away averages suggest a high-scoring contest, especially with relegation pressure forcing attacking intent.
- Sundsvall average goals conceded: 1.9 per match; Orebro average goals conceded: 1.8 per match
- Sundsvall home matches: 11 goals for, 23 against in 11 games (avg 3.09 total goals)
- Orebro away matches: 12 goals for, 20 against in 11 games (avg 2.91 total goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and have scored in most recent meetings, making both teams scoring likely.
- Sundsvall average goals conceded: 1.9 per match; Orebro average goals conceded: 1.8 per match
- Sundsvall home matches: 11 goals for, 23 against in 11 games
- Orebro away matches: 12 goals for, 20 against in 11 games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Orebro's strong first-half scoring record and Sundsvall's tendency to concede early make a first-half goal probable.
- Sundsvall average first half goals: 0.3; Orebro average first half goals: 1.1
- Sundsvall average first half goals conceded: 0.7; Orebro average first half goals conceded: 0.7
- Orebro leading at half time in 47% of matches; Sundsvall trailing at half time in 27%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the high total goals expectation, the second half could see multiple goals, though the exact distribution is uncertain.
- Sundsvall average goals conceded: 1.9 per match; Orebro average goals conceded: 1.8 per match
- Sundsvall home matches: 11 goals for, 23 against in 11 games
- Orebro away matches: 12 goals for, 20 against in 11 games
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sundsvall's low first-half scoring makes it unlikely both teams score before the break, despite Orebro's attacking threat.
- Sundsvall average first half goals: 0.3; Orebro average first half goals: 1.1
- Sundsvall average first half goals conceded: 0.7; Orebro average first half goals conceded: 0.7
- Orebro leading at half time in 47% of matches; Sundsvall trailing at half time in 27%
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance65%