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GIF SundsvallNorrby IF

Mon 31 Aug 2026, 17:0031 Aug, 17:00

12Probabilities0Priced6Edges78%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 16:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Norrby IF are the value side: the away win at 2.30 offers a +12 point edge, and the double chance 'Draw or Norrby' at 1.40 is a strong play with a 78% estimated probability.

The second-half over 1.5 goals at 2.50 is also attractive (+15 point edge), while the first-half over 0.5 goals and Sundsvall home win should be avoided.

Context

GIF Sundsvall are bottom with 10 points and a -30 goal difference, while Norrby IF sit 12th with 23 points and a 1-point gap above the relegation line.

Sundsvall are 16th in Superettan with 10 points from 20 matches, 12 points behind 13th-placed IFK Varnamo.
They have lost 16 of 20 league games and have the worst goal difference in the division at -30. Their recent form is poor, with four defeats and a draw in their last five league matches. This match is at home, where they have won only twice in ten attempts, so even a home fixture does not offer much relief.
- GIF Sundsvall are 16th with 10 points from 20 matches, 12 points behind 13th-placed IFK Varnamo.
- They have lost 16 of 20 league matches and have a -30 goal difference.
- Their last five league results: L, L, D, L, L.
Norrby IF are 12th in Superettan with 23 points from 20 matches, one point above 13th-placed IFK Varnamo.
Their away record is weak, with only one win in ten away matches and six draws. They have drawn 11 of 20 league games overall, which has kept them just above the danger zone. A win here would create a small cushion, but their away form suggests they may struggle to take all three points.
- Norrby IF are 12th with 23 points from 20 matches, one point above 13th-placed IFK Varnamo.
- They have won only one of ten away matches, drawing six.
- They have drawn 11 of 20 league matches overall.
The teams met on 20 July 2026 in Superettan, with Norrby IF winning 3-1 at home.
Norrby controlled that match with 58% possession and seven shots to Sundsvall's two. Sundsvall's only goal came despite having no shots on target, suggesting they were outplayed. That result is recent enough to be relevant, but Sundsvall are now at home, where they have been slightly better this season.
- On 20 July 2026, Norrby IF beat GIF Sundsvall 3-1 at home.
- Norrby had 58% possession and seven shots; Sundsvall had two shots and no shots on target.
GIF Sundsvall confirmed on 26 August that assistant coach Ion Doros had left the club, five days before this fixture.
The late staff change removes a coach who had been with the first team since the start of 2024 and twice served as interim head coach. Sundsvall's preparation and touchline organisation may be disrupted, though the club has not named a replacement or explained how duties will be redistributed.
- GIF Sundsvall confirmed that it and assistant coach Ion Doros had agreed to part ways on 26 August.
- The club said Doros had been part of the first-team staff since the start of 2024 and had twice served as interim head coach.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 16:14 · Europe/BucharestGIF Sundsvall: Ion Doros leavesgifsundsvall.se · 26 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Norrby's superior away resilience and Sundsvall's poor home form make the away win the most likely outcome.
- GIF Sundsvall home record: 2W-1D-7L, 10 goals for, 23 against
- Norrby IF away record: 1W-6D-3L, 9 goals for, 13 against
- H2H last meeting: Norrby IF 3-1 GIF Sundsvall (20 Jul 2026)
- GIF Sundsvall last 5 form: L-D-L-L-L
BetBugs · Match WinnerNorrby IFEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sundsvall's low home win probability makes the double chance for Norrby or draw a strong play.
- GIF Sundsvall home win rate: 20% (2/10)
- Norrby IF away loss rate: 30% (3/10)
- H2H: Norrby unbeaten in last 2 meetings vs Sundsvall
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or Norrby IFEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sundsvall's slow starts and Norrby's moderate first-half away record make a level half-time plausible.
- GIF Sundsvall led at half-time in only 7% of home games
- Norrby IF led at half-time in 40% of away games
- H2H last meeting was level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sundsvall's second-half collapses at home give Norrby an edge after the break.
- GIF Sundsvall have lost the second half in 6 of 10 home games
- Norrby IF have won the second half in 4 of 10 away games
- Sundsvall's second-half goal difference at home is -8
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerNorrby IFEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A repeat of the last H2H pattern where Norrby wins after a level first half is a plausible HT/FT combo.
- GIF Sundsvall drew at half-time in 60% of home games
- Norrby IF won 30% of away games
- H2H last meeting: draw at HT, Norrby won FT
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleDraw/Norrby IFEstimated chance22%

Goals4 outcomes · top 65%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sundsvall's leaky home defense and Norrby's decent away scoring support over 2.5 goals.
- GIF Sundsvall home games average 3.3 total goals (10 for, 23 against)
- Norrby IF away games average 2.2 total goals (9 for, 13 against)
- H2H last meeting produced 4 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability in their respective home/away splits.
- GIF Sundsvall scored in 7 of 10 home games
- Norrby IF scored in 7 of 10 away games
- Both teams scored in 5 of Norrby's last 6 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Norrby's tendency to score early away from home increases the chance of a first-half goal.
- GIF Sundsvall first-half goals at home: 0.2 per game average
- Norrby IF first-half goals away: 0.5 per game average
- H2H last meeting had 1 first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring patterns for both teams support over 1.5 goals after the break.
- GIF Sundsvall concede heavily in second halves at home
- Norrby IF score 60% of away goals in second half
- H2H last meeting had 3 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 55%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages suggest a total around the 8.5 line, making over a coin flip.
- GIF Sundsvall average 4.3 corners per game overall
- Norrby IF average 4.2 corners per game overall
- Combined average corners in their matches: 8.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sundsvall's poor defense allows high opponent shots on target, pushing the total over the line.
- GIF Sundsvall average 2.9 shots on target per game
- Norrby IF average 3.3 shots on target per game
- Combined average shots on target: 6.2, but Sundsvall concede many shots
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Relegation pressure on Sundsvall could lead to more fouls and cards, pushing the total over 3.5.
- GIF Sundsvall average 1.3 yellow cards per game
- Norrby IF average 1.0 yellow cards per game
- Combined average yellow cards: 2.3, but high-stakes match may increase cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance55%