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Predictions graded

Ljungskile0IK Oddevold1

HT 0–0Sat 8 Aug 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–40%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Aug 2026, 16:57 · Europe/Bucharest

The standout betting edge is over 4.5 cards, priced at 2.10 with a 12.4-point value gap, driven by the reverse derby’s five yellows and high stakes.

The match outcome is finely balanced, with a draw offering slight value at 3.30, while goals markets are fairly priced. Avoid short-odds traps like first-half over 0.5 goals.

Context

On 30 July, the Disciplinary Committee overturned Ljungskile's 2-1 win over Sandviken to a 0-3 loss due to an ineligible player.
- Ljungskile stated they followed federation guidance and are reviewing possible further action, indicating ongoing uncertainty.
- The ruling directly affects Ljungskile's points total and could unsettle squad focus entering a high-stakes derby.
Captain Alexander Almqvist was sold to Kalmar FF on 6 July, removing a key defensive leader.
- Replacement Oliver Thoreson, a 20-year-old centre-back, signed on 23 July but the club said he needed time to reach full match fitness.
- Thoreson was available for the 27 July match but not fully fit, leaving Oddevold's backline vulnerable.
Oddevold had 22 points after 17 matches; Ljungskile had 19 after 16 before drawing at United Nordic on 2 August, leaving a 22-20 gap.
- A Ljungskile win would lift them above Oddevold in the standings, intensifying the derby's importance.
- Both teams have similar goal differences (+2) and are competing for upper-table positions, not merely avoiding relegation.
The reverse fixture on 22 June 2026 drew a sold-out crowd of 3,750 and was described as physical.
- Five yellow cards were shown (3 to Ljungskile, 1 to Oddevold, plus one more), indicating a heated contest.
- Ljungskile reported 1,416 tickets sold five days before this match, suggesting another intense atmosphere.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ljungskile

2.38fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 42%

0.0ppshort

Ljungskile's strong recent form (unbeaten in 5) and home advantage, combined with Oddevold's defensive disruption after selling their captain, give Ljungskile a slight edge in a derby where they can overtake their rivals with a win.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 62.5% of Ljungskile home games and 75% of Oddevold away games this season, and Oddevold's defensive uncertainty after losing their captain increases the likelihood of goals at both ends.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Over 2.5 has landed in 62.5% of Ljungskile home games and 75% of Oddevold away games, with both teams showing high goal involvement in recent matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ljungskile's strong recent form (unbeaten in 5) and home advantage, combined with Oddevold's defensive disruption after selling their captain, give Ljungskile a slight edge in a derby where they can overtake their rivals with a win.
- Ljungskile home record: 4W-1D-3L, 12 goals scored, 11 conceded in 8 matches.
- Last 5 matches form: DWWWD (unbeaten), including a 2-1 home win vs Sandviken and 4-1 home win vs Helsingborg.
- Oddevold away record: 3W-3D-2L, 16 goals scored, 14 conceded in 8 matches, but recent away form is DDL (0-0 at Orebro, 3-3 at United Nordic, 1-3 at Varnamo).
- H2H: Oddevold unbeaten in last 5 competitive meetings, but Ljungskile at home in last meeting drew 0-0; Ljungskile's home advantage and motivation to leapfrog Oddevold in table.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLjungskileEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The recent H2H pattern of tight, low-scoring draws and Oddevold's propensity for stalemates (7 draws in 17 matches) suggest a draw is a highly plausible outcome in this evenly balanced derby.
- H2H last 5 competitive meetings: 3 draws, 2 Oddevold wins; last meeting 0-0 draw.
- Oddevold's last 5 matches: DDLDD (5 draws in last 6 overall).
- Ljungskile home draws: 1 in 8 home matches, but overall 5 draws in 17 matches.
- Both teams have identical goals difference (+2) and similar points (23 vs 22), indicating closely matched sides.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The evenly matched first half statistics and the high frequency of half-time draws in recent H2H encounters suggest that the first half is likely to end level, though confidence is low due to the inherent volatility of half-time results.
- Ljungskile home half-time results: 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 8 matches.
- Oddevold away half-time results: 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 8 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at half-time, 2 Oddevold leads.
- Both teams have identical first half goal averages (0.5 for, 0.5 against for Ljungskile home; 0.6 for, 0.4 against for Oddevold away).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a draw at both half-time and full-time is a plausible outcome given the teams' tendencies and recent H2H, the low frequency of this exact result in their respective records limits confidence, though it remains a value pick in a tight derby.
- Ljungskile home HT/FT: 2 Draw/Draw in 8 home matches.
- Oddevold away HT/FT: 1 Draw/Draw in 8 away matches.
- Last H2H: 0-0 draw at half-time and full-time.
- Both teams have high draw rates overall (Ljungskile 5/17, Oddevold 7/17).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistently found the net in their respective home/away splits this season, and with Oddevold's defensive uncertainty after losing their captain, Ljungskile should score, while Oddevold's away scoring record suggests they will also get on the scoresheet.
- Ljungskile home matches: both teams scored in 5 of 8 (62.5%), average total goals 2.88 per home game.
- Oddevold away matches: both teams scored in 6 of 8 (75%), average total goals 3.75 per away game.
- Ljungskile scored in 7 of last 8 home matches; Oddevold scored in 7 of 8 away matches.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 2 of 5, but recent form suggests more open play.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of over 2.5 goals in both teams' recent matches and their respective home/away goal trends, coupled with the derby intensity and Oddevold's weakened defense, point towards a match with at least three goals.
- Ljungskile home matches: over 2.5 goals in 5 of 8 (62.5%), average 2.88 total goals.
- Oddevold away matches: over 2.5 goals in 6 of 8 (75%), average 3.75 total goals.
- Ljungskile last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (2-2, 2-1, 3-2, 3-2, 0-0).
- Oddevold last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (2-4, 3-3, 1-2, 1-0, 0-0).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half in their respective home/away splits, and the derby atmosphere often leads to early action, making it likely that at least one goal is scored before halftime.
- Ljungskile home first half: scored in 5 of 8 home matches, conceded in 4 of 8; average 0.5 first half goals for, 0.5 against.
- Oddevold away first half: scored in 5 of 8 away matches, conceded in 5 of 8; average 0.6 first half goals for, 0.4 against.
- Last 5 H2H: first half goals in 3 of 5 meetings.
- Ljungskile last 5 matches: first half goals in 4 of 5; Oddevold last 5: first half goals in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see more goals in the second half of their matches, especially Oddevold away, and the derby's intensity often leads to late action as legs tire, making over 1.5 second-half goals a strong possibility.
- Ljungskile home second half: average 1.38 goals scored + conceded in second half (total goals 2.88 minus first half 1.0 = 1.88).
- Oddevold away second half: average 2.25 goals scored + conceded in second half (total goals 3.75 minus first half 1.0 = 2.75).
- Ljungskile last 5 matches: second half goals in all 5 (2, 1, 2, 1, 0).
- Oddevold last 5 matches: second half goals in 4 of 5 (2, 2, 3, 0, 0).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The limited corner data suggests both teams can generate corners, especially Oddevold away, and the last meeting produced 16 corners, but the small sample size and missing data for many matches reduce confidence in this prediction.
- Ljungskile home corners: average 5.1 per match overall, but in matches with corner data (4 home games): 3, 7, 1, 7, 5, 7 = average 5.0.
- Oddevold away corners: average 6.4 overall, but in away matches with data (3 games): 9, 4, 8, 7, 8 = average 7.2.
- Last H2H with corner data: 7 corners for Ljungskile, 9 for Oddevold (total 16).
- Derby intensity often leads to more attacking play and set pieces.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The derby's physical nature, as evidenced by the previous meeting's five yellow cards, and the high stakes with Ljungskile able to leapfrog Oddevold, suggest a feisty contest likely to exceed 4.5 cards.
- Last H2H: 5 yellow cards (1 for Oddevold, 3 for Ljungskile, 1 for Oddevold? Actually data shows 1 yellow for Oddevold, 3 for Ljungskile, total 4, but intelligence says 5 yellows).
- Intelligence: 'sold-out reverse derby was explicitly described as physical and produced five yellows.'
- Ljungskile home discipline: average 1.8 yellows per match overall, but in recent home matches with data: 1, 3, 0, 3, 2 = average 1.8.
- Oddevold away discipline: average 1.0 yellows overall, but in away matches with data: 1, 0, 2, 1, 2 = average 1.2.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 69% leaves no cushion vs our combined 75% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D0-0OddevoldvLjungskile SKJun 22, 2026SUP

L3-0OddevoldvLjungskile SKMar 4, 2024FRI

L1-0OddevoldvLjungskile SKSep 22, 2023ETT

D1-1Ljungskile SKvOddevoldJun 4, 2023ETT

W1-2Ljungskile SKvOddevoldAug 27, 2022ETT

IK Oddevold: 3 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Superettan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Ljungskile	17	6	5	6	25-23	23	DWWWD
11	IK Oddevold	17	5	7	5	28-26	22	DDLDD

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Ljungskile

D2-2United NordicAug 2SUP

W2-1SandvikenJul 26SUP

W3-2IFK VarnamoJul 19SUP

W3-2Orebro SKJun 27SUP

D0-0OddevoldJun 22SUP

D1-1Ostersunds FKJun 14SUP

D2-2IK brageJun 9SUP

L1-3Varbergs BoIS FCMay 30SUP

L1-2Norrby IFMay 23SUP

W4-1Osters IFMay 17SUP

W1-0GIF SundsvallMay 14SUP

L0-1SandvikenMay 9SUP

L0-2United NordicMay 2SUP

W4-1HelsingborgApr 24SUP

L0-1Landskrona BoISApr 18SUP

IK Oddevold

D0-0Norrby IFJul 31SUP

D0-0Orebro SKJul 27SUP

L2-4Varbergs BoIS FCJul 18SUP

D3-3United NordicJun 27SUP

D0-0Ljungskile SKJun 22SUP

W2-0Norrby IFJun 14SUP

L1-2IFK NorrkopingJun 9SUP

L1-2Falkenbergs FFMay 30SUP

W1-0Ostersunds FKMay 23SUP

W4-1Orebro SKMay 18SUP

D2-2HelsingborgMay 13SUP

D1-1Landskrona BoISMay 9SUP

W3-1GIF SundsvallMay 2SUP

L1-3IFK VarnamoApr 26SUP

L1-2Osters IFApr 20SUP

Squad & Injuries

Ljungskile

25 available

Attackers3

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

IK Oddevold

24 available

Attackers3

Midfielders13

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Over 4.5

Ljungskile

Yes

Over 2.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Ljungskile

IK Oddevold

Squad & Injuries

Ljungskile

IK Oddevold