SuperettanFull time

Predictions graded

Ljungskile2Norrby IF1

HT 0–1Wed 9 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 19–7On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 9–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 01:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Ljungskile are overpriced at 1.95 (implied 51% vs our 38%) given their poor home record and Norrby's six away draws.

Avoid the home win and double chance; no market offers clear value, with the first-half draw at 2.30 being the closest to fair but still lacking an edge.

Context

Norrby IF are 12th in Superettan with 23 points from 22 matches.
Their away record shows one win, six draws, and four losses, with only nine goals scored in 11 away games. This suggests they find it hard to create chances on the road, and Ljungskile may be able to keep them quiet. However, Norrby have drawn six away matches, so they are not easily beaten.
- Norrby IF away record: 1 win, 6 draws, 4 losses in 11 matches.
- Norrby IF have scored 9 goals and conceded 14 away from home.
Ljungskile are 11th in Superettan with 25 points from 22 matches.
At home they have won four, drawn one, and lost six, conceding 16 goals in 11 games. This poor home record means they have not been able to use their stadium as an advantage. Norrby IF may see this as an opportunity to pick up points, even though their away form is also weak.
- Ljungskile home record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses in 11 matches.
- Ljungskile have conceded 16 goals at home.
Ljungskile are 11th and Norrby IF are 12th in Superettan.
Ljungskile's last five league results are DLDLL, including a 2-2 draw at IFK Norrkoping on 4 September and a 0-1 home loss to IFK Varnamo on 29 August. Norrby IF's last five are LLDLW, with a 1-3 home loss to Landskrona BoIS on 5 September and a 0-1 away loss to GIF Sundsvall on 31 August. Both teams are struggling to pick up points, which could lead to a cautious match.
- Ljungskile form: DLDLL (last five Superettan matches).
- Norrby IF form: LLDLW (last five Superettan matches).
The teams met earlier this season in Superettan.
On 23 May 2026, Norrby IF won 2-1 at home against Ljungskile. That result shows Norrby can compete with Ljungskile, but it was at Norrby's stadium. This match is at Ljungskile, where the home side may perform differently.
- 2026-05-23: Norrby IF 2-1 Ljungskile (Superettan).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ljungskile

1.95fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 51.3%

0.0ppshort

The market overprices Ljungskile relative to their actual home form and Norrby's resilience away.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Ljungskile or Draw

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

−14.9ppshort

The market heavily favours Ljungskile or Draw, but our estimate is much lower, making this a poor value bet.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.30fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 43.5%

0.0ppshort

The first-half draw odds are close to our estimate, offering no value edge.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Combined average goals per match is 2.8, but the bookmaker's price implies a much higher probability than our model.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly find the net and concede, but the odds are shorter than our probability estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the odds are far too short for our probability.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ljungskile's home advantage and Norrby's poor away form give the hosts a slight edge, though H2H is mixed.
- Ljungskile home record: 4W-1D-6L, 14 goals for, 16 against in 11 home matches
- Norrby away record: 1W-6D-4L, 9 goals for, 14 against in 11 away matches
- H2H last 5: Ljungskile won 2, Norrby won 3; most recent meeting (May 2026) Norrby won 2-1 at home
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLjungskileEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Norrby's away draws and Ljungskile's home form make a home win or draw likely.
- Ljungskile home record: 4W-1D-6L, 14 goals for, 16 against in 11 home matches
- Norrby away record: 1W-6D-4L, 9 goals for, 14 against in 11 away matches
- Norrby have drawn 6 of 11 away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLjungskile or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half records, making a draw at half-time plausible.
- Ljungskile led at half-time in 20% of matches, trailed in 13%
- Norrby led at half-time in 40% of matches, trailed in 27%
- H2H recent matches often level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time and full-time is possible given both teams' tendency to draw.
- Ljungskile drew 7 of 22 matches
- Norrby drew 11 of 22 matches
- Both teams have high draw rates
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring and conceding rates, pushing the total above 2.5.
- Ljungskile average 1.3 goals for and 1.5 against per match
- Norrby average 1.1 goals for and 1.4 against per match
- Combined average goals per match: 2.8
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net and concede, making BTTS likely.
- Ljungskile scored in 11 of 15 recent matches
- Norrby scored in 10 of 15 recent matches
- Both teams conceded in most matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Ljungskile average 0.6 first-half goals, concede 0.5
- Norrby average 0.6 first-half goals, concede 0.5
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.1
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities.
- Ljungskile average 1.3 goals for and 1.5 against per match
- Norrby average 1.1 goals for and 1.4 against per match
- Second-half goals often exceed first-half in these teams' matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Ljungskile average 4.5 corners per match
- Norrby average 5 corners per match
- Combined average corners: 9.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shots on target totals are close to the line, making over 8.5 a near coin flip.
- Ljungskile average 4.3 shots on target per match
- Norrby average 3.2 shots on target per match
- Combined average shots on target: 7.5
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%