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Predictions graded

IFK Norrkoping2Ljungskile2

HT 1–1Fri 4 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges3–538%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 24–13On targetOn target 13–5CornersCorners 10–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 18:08 · Europe/Bucharest

IFK Norrkoping are strong favourites at home against a Ljungskile side with poor away form and a new coach.

The best value bets are IFK Norrkoping to win (1.50, +11 edge), first-half result IFK Norrkoping (2.00, +15 edge), and Both Teams to Score: No (2.10, +10 edge). Avoid Over 2.5 goals and Asian Handicap -1.0/-2.0, as the market overprices those outcomes.

Context

IFK Norrkoping lead Superettan with 47 points from 21 matches and have a 23-point advantage over Ljungskile.
Their last five league results are wins against United Nordic (3-1 on 29 August), Falkenbergs FF (2-1 on 24 August), Sandviken (4-1 on 15 August), IK brage (3-0 on 8 August), and Helsingborg (2-0 on 1 August). This run includes 14 goals scored and only 3 conceded, showing both attacking output and defensive control. The sample is recent and consistent, but it does not guarantee the same performance against Ljungskile.
- Won 3-1 away at United Nordic on 29 August 2026.
- Won 2-1 at home against Falkenbergs FF on 24 August 2026.
- Won 4-1 away at Sandviken on 15 August 2026.
Ljungskile are 11th in Superettan with 24 points from 21 matches, two points above the relegation playoff line.
Their last five league results are a 0-1 home loss to IFK Varnamo on 29 August, a 0-0 away draw at Ostersunds FK on 24 August, a 2-3 home loss to Osters IF on 15 August, a 0-1 home loss to Oddevold on 8 August, and a 2-2 away draw at United Nordic on 2 August. This run includes only two points from a possible 15 and shows difficulty in both scoring and defending. The form is poor, but Ljungskile have drawn three away matches this season, so they can still be hard to beat on the road.
- Lost 0-1 at home to IFK Varnamo on 29 August 2026.
- Lost 2-3 at home to Osters IF on 15 August 2026.
- Lost 0-1 at home to Oddevold on 8 August 2026.
IFK Norrkoping are top of Superettan and have the best home record in the league.
At home this season, they have 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from 10 matches, with 22 goals scored and 6 conceded. This means they average 2.2 goals per home game and concede only 0.6, showing both attacking strength and defensive solidity. Ljungskile have won only 2 of 10 away matches, so the home advantage is likely to be significant.
- Home record: 7 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in 10 matches.
- Scored 22 goals and conceded 6 at home this season.
Tor-Arne Fredheim took over as Ljungskile men’s head coach on 26 August after Joakim Jensen’s tenure ended, with a contract until the end of the season.
His first match in charge, on 29 August against IFK Värnamo, used a 4-2-3-1 shape. That is the only current sample of his setup, so Ljungskile’s defensive organisation and build-up structure remain uncertain ahead of this away fixture.
- Ljungskile appointed Tor-Arne Fredheim as men’s head coach on 26 August, with a contract until the end of the season.
- Ljungskile ended Joakim Jensen’s head-coach role with immediate effect on 25 August.
- Ljungskile’s 29 August match report recorded a 4-2-3-1 against IFK Värnamo.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 18:06 · Europe/BucharestLjungskile SK: Tor-Arne Fredheim appointed head coachwww.lsk.se · 26 Aug 2026Ljungskile SK: changes to the coaching staffwww.lsk.se · 25 Aug 2026Ljungskile SK: 0-1 loss to IFK Värnamowww.lsk.se · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 7

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IFK Norrkoping's dominant league position, current winning streak, and strong home record make them clear favourites against a mid-table Ljungskile side with poor away form.
- IFK Norrkoping are 1st with 47 points from 21 games, while Ljungskile are 11th with 24 points.
- IFK Norrkoping have won their last 5 league matches, scoring 14 and conceding 2.
- Ljungskile have won only 2 of 10 away games this season, drawing 5 and losing 3.
- IFK Norrkoping have won 7 of 10 home games, scoring 22 and conceding only 6.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIFK NorrkopingEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given IFK Norrkoping's strong home form and Ljungskile's poor away record, the home side is highly unlikely to lose.
- IFK Norrkoping have lost only 2 of 10 home games this season.
- Ljungskile have won only 2 of 10 away games.
- IFK Norrkoping are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIFK Norrkoping or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IFK Norrkoping's strong first-half performances, especially at home, make them likely to be ahead at the break.
- IFK Norrkoping have led at half-time in 67% of their matches.
- Ljungskile have trailed at half-time in only 13% of matches, but their away form is weaker.
- IFK Norrkoping average 1.2 first-half goals per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostIFK NorrkopingEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IFK Norrkoping's ability to take an early lead and maintain it makes a half-time/full-time double result plausible.
- IFK Norrkoping have led at half-time in 67% of their matches.
- IFK Norrkoping have won 15 of 21 league games this season.
- Ljungskile have lost 9 of 21 league games.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostIFK Norrkoping/IFK NorrkopingEstimated chance55%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown the ability to score, and IFK Norrkoping's attacking strength at home should push the total over 2.5 goals.
- IFK Norrkoping average 1.9 goals per game overall and 2.2 goals per home game.
- Ljungskile average 1.5 goals per game overall and 1.3 goals per away game.
- IFK Norrkoping's last 5 home games have produced 14 goals (2.8 per game).
- Ljungskile's last 5 away games have produced 12 goals (2.4 per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
IFK Norrkoping's strong home defence and Ljungskile's inconsistent away scoring suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- IFK Norrkoping have kept clean sheets in 6 of their last 10 home games.
- Ljungskile have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away games.
- IFK Norrkoping concede only 0.6 goals per home game on average.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IFK Norrkoping's defensive solidity at home makes a clean sheet likely against a Ljungskile side that struggles to score away.
- IFK Norrkoping have kept clean sheets in 6 of their last 10 home games.
- Ljungskile have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away games.
- IFK Norrkoping concede only 0.6 goals per home game on average.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostLjungskile not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
IFK Norrkoping's tendency to score early and lead at half-time increases the likelihood of multiple first-half goals.
- IFK Norrkoping average 1.2 first-half goals per game overall.
- IFK Norrkoping have led at half-time in 67% of their matches.
- Ljungskile average 0.6 first-half goals per game overall.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are close to the line, and with IFK Norrkoping likely to dominate possession, the total could exceed 9.5 corners.
- IFK Norrkoping average 3.6 corners per game overall.
- Ljungskile average 4.7 corners per game overall.
- Combined average corners per game is 8.3, but recent matches have varied.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a reasonable number of shots on target, and the combined average suggests a total over 8.5 is possible.
- IFK Norrkoping average 4.4 shots on target per game overall.
- Ljungskile average 4.8 shots on target per game overall.
- Combined average shots on target is 9.2 per game.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average yellow cards is exactly at the line, making this a coin-flip prediction with slight lean towards over.
- IFK Norrkoping average 2.3 yellow cards per game.
- Ljungskile average 1.7 yellow cards per game.
- Combined average yellow cards is 4.0 per game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The -1.0 line at 2.40 implies a 42% chance of winning by 2+, but our model gives only about 35% for that outcome, leaving no value.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W0-1Ljungskile SKvIFK NorrkopingApr 11, 2026SUP

1 goals/game avg

League Table

Superettan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	IFK Norrkoping Promotion	21	15	2	4	41-13	47	WWWWW
11	Ljungskile	21	6	6	9	27-28	24	LDLLD

23pt gap between teamsIFK Norrkoping leads the league

Recent Form

IFK Norrkoping

W3-1United NordicAug 29SUP

W2-1Falkenbergs FFAug 24SUP

W4-1SandvikenAug 15SUP

W3-0IK brageAug 8SUP

W2-0HelsingborgAug 1SUP

W1-0Landskrona BoISJul 28SUP

W3-0SandvikenJul 19SUP

L0-1Norrby IFJun 28SUP

W2-0Ostersunds FKJun 21SUP

W2-0Varbergs BoIS FCJun 15SUP

W2-1OddevoldJun 9SUP

W2-0HelsingborgMay 31SUP

W2-0Osters IFMay 25SUP

D0-0IK brageMay 16SUP

D1-1United NordicMay 13SUP

Ljungskile

L0-1IFK VarnamoAug 29SUP

D0-0Ostersunds FKAug 24SUP

W1-0FrankeAug 19SVE

L2-3Osters IFAug 15SUP

L0-1OddevoldAug 8SUP

D2-2United NordicAug 2SUP

W2-1SandvikenJul 26SUP

W3-2IFK VarnamoJul 19SUP

W3-2Orebro SKJun 27SUP

D0-0OddevoldJun 22SUP

D1-1Ostersunds FKJun 14SUP

D2-2IK brageJun 9SUP

L1-3Varbergs BoIS FCMay 30SUP

L1-2Norrby IFMay 23SUP

W4-1Osters IFMay 17SUP

Squad & Injuries

IFK Norrkoping

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Ljungskile

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

IFK Norrkoping2Ljungskile2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

IFK Norrkoping

IFK Norrkoping or Draw

IFK Norrkoping

IFK Norrkoping at half-time / IFK Norrkoping at full-time

No

Ljungskile not to score

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

IFK Norrkoping -2.0

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

IFK Norrkoping

Ljungskile

Squad & Injuries

IFK Norrkoping

Ljungskile