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Predictions graded

Remo PA1Athletico PR2

HT 1–1Sun 24 May 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 3–16On targetOn target 2–9CornersCorners 3–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 May 2026, 23:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Both Teams to Score is the top value play (70% estimated vs.

57.1% implied, +12.9-point edge), backed by a perfect H2H BTTS record and leaky defenses. The Draw also offers a slim edge, while Cards Over 4.5 is worth a look in a high-stakes, foul-prone matchup. Avoid short odds on 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals and outright winners.

Context

Portilla travelled to Bogotá on 20 May for national team training, missing the full match-week build-up.
- He is a regular holding midfielder whose absence forces a reshuffle in a key defensive role.
- Athletico already have Luiz Gustavo (calf) out, further thinning central midfield options.
The STJD reduced the suspension on 22 May, freeing Zé Ricardo for Sunday's game.
- He is a regular starter who adds defensive bite and experience in the centre.
- Assistant Renatinho remains suspended, but the on-pitch boost is significant.
Marcelinho said on 20 May that the team has been more impatient at home, affecting possession.
- Remo have only 1 win in 7 home league games this season (1W-4D-2L).
- The club is pushing ticket sales to create a fortress atmosphere, but the anxiety pattern is established.
Athletico's away record is 1W-1D-5L, with only 4 goals scored and 12 conceded.
- They have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 away games.
- Defensive injuries (Teran, possibly Esquivel) add to the fragility on the road.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have weak home/away splits respectively, and H2H shows a pattern of draws, making a stalemate likely.
- Remo PA home record: 1W-4D-2L (7 matches), only 1 win at home this season.
- Athletico PR away record: 1W-1D-5L (7 matches), very poor away form.
- H2H last 4 meetings: 2 draws, 1 win each, all matches had both teams scoring.
- Remo PA last 5 home matches: 2W-2D-1L, but wins were in cup competitions.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Remo PA are tough to beat at home, while Athletico PR struggle on the road, so Remo PA or Draw covers the most likely outcomes.
- Remo PA home record: 1W-4D-2L, only 2 losses in 7 home games.
- Athletico PR away record: 1W-1D-5L, lost 5 of 7 away matches.
- Remo PA motivated to escape relegation zone, pushing for home turnout.
- Athletico PR missing key midfielder Portilla, and have defensive injuries.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostRemo PA or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low halftime lead percentages, and H2H shows a strong draw trend at the break.
- Remo PA last 15: led at halftime in only 7% of matches, trailed in 27%.
- Athletico PR last 15: led at halftime in 27%, trailed in 47%.
- H2H last 4: 3 of 4 were draws at halftime.
- Remo PA home: 4 of 7 home games were draws at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Remo PA's desperation and Athletico's poor away second halves give a slight edge, but sample size is small.
- Remo PA last 5: won second half in 3 of 5 matches.
- Athletico PR away: lost second half in 4 of 7 away matches.
- Remo PA home: won second half in 2 of 7 home games.
- Motivation: Remo PA need points more urgently, likely to push harder late.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableRemo PAEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime and fulltime is plausible given the balanced matchup, but Athletico's poor away form reduces confidence.
- H2H last 4: 2 matches ended in draws, both were 1-1.
- Remo PA home: 4 of 7 home games were draws at halftime, 4 ended in draws.
- Athletico PR away: 1 draw in 7 away games.
- Both teams have low win probabilities, increasing draw likelihood.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H trend of both teams scoring, combined with both teams' tendency to concede, makes BTTS highly probable.
- H2H last 4 meetings: both teams scored in all 4 matches.
- Remo PA home: scored in 6 of 7 home games, conceded in 6 of 7.
- Athletico PR away: scored in 5 of 7 away games, conceded in 6 of 7.
- Remo PA overall: both teams scored in 11 of last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent form and H2H suggest a high-scoring affair, with both teams likely to contribute to goals.
- H2H last 4 meetings: 3 of 4 had over 2.5 goals.
- Remo PA home: 5 of 7 home games had over 2.5 goals.
- Athletico PR away: 4 of 7 away games had over 2.5 goals.
- Remo PA last 5 matches: 4 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently score or concede in the first half, and H2H supports early action.
- Remo PA last 15: first half goals in 12 of 15 matches.
- Athletico PR last 15: first half goals in 10 of 15 matches.
- H2H last 4: first half goals in all 4 meetings.
- Remo PA home: first half goals in 6 of 7 home games.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as both teams push for a result, but confidence is low due to Athletico's defensive focus.
- Remo PA last 5: second half goals in all 5 matches, averaging 1.8 goals.
- Athletico PR last 5: second half goals in 4 of 5 matches.
- H2H last 4: second half goals in 3 of 4 meetings.
- Remo PA home: second half goals in 6 of 7 home games.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Remo PA's home matches see high corner counts, and H2H supports a total above 9.5.
- Remo PA home: average 5.3 corners for, 7.3 against, total 12.6 per game.
- Athletico PR away: average 4.3 corners for, 4.7 against, total 9.0 per game.
- H2H last 2: total corners 12 and 15.
- Remo PA last 5: total corners averaged 10.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined averages and the intense context suggest a card-heavy match, with Athletico's away discipline being a factor.
- Remo PA home: average 1.7 yellow cards, opponents 2.3, total 4.0.
- Athletico PR away: average 2.0 yellow cards, opponents 2.7, total 4.7.
- Athletico PR last 5: total cards averaged 5.2.
- High stakes relegation battle likely to increase fouls and cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 2W

L2-1RemovAtletico ParanaenseOct 10, 2025SER

L2-1Atletico ParanaensevRemoJun 14, 2025SER

3 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Remo PA Relegation - Serie B	16	3	6	7	19-27	15	WDWLL
5	Athletico PR Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)	16	7	3	6	21-17	24	DLDWL

9pt gap between teamsRemo PA in relegation zone

Recent Form

Remo PA

W3-2Chapecoense-scMay 17SA

W2-1BahiaMay 14COP

D1-1PalmeirasMay 10SA

W2-1BotafogoMay 2SA

W2-1GalvezApr 29COP

L0-1CruzeiroApr 25SA

W3-1BahiaApr 22COP

L2-4RB BragantinoApr 19SA

L1-2Águia de MarabáApr 15COP

D1-1Vasco DA GamaApr 11SA

W1-0AmazonasApr 8COP

D0-0GremioApr 5SA

L0-2SantosApr 2SA

D1-1Monte RoraimaMar 29COP

L1-2Porto VelhoMar 26COP

Athletico PR

D1-1FlamengoMay 17SA

L0-1Vasco DA GamaMay 10SA

D0-0GremioMay 2SA

W3-1VitoriaApr 26SA

D0-0Atletico GoianienseApr 24COP

L0-1PalmeirasApr 19SA

W2-0Chapecoense-scApr 12SA

L1-2Atletico-MGApr 5SA

L0-3BahiaApr 1SA

W4-1BotafogoMar 29SA

W2-0CoritibaMar 22SA

W2-1CruzeiroMar 18SA

L2-3FluminenseMar 15SA

D1-1RB BragantinoFeb 25SA

L0-1LondrinaFeb 22PAR

Squad & Injuries

Remo PA

10 out

Attackers4/10

×#39

×#19

×#39

×#19

Midfielders2/14

×#12

Defenders4/11

×#2

×#3

×#2

×#3

Goalkeeper3

#39 Eduardo Melo — Hamstring Injury

#19 Gabriel Taliari — Hamstring Injury

#2 Joao Lucas — Knee Injury

#12 Patrick de Paula — Groin Injury

#3 Thalisson — Knee Injury

#39 Eduardo Melo — Hamstring Injury

#19 Gabriel Taliari — Hamstring Injury

#2 Joao Lucas — Knee Injury

#12 Patrick de Paula — Groin Injury

#3 Thalisson — Knee Injury

Athletico PR

10 out

Attackers2/11

×#20

Midfielders2/17

×#14

Defenders6/10

×#22

×#37

×#6

×#22

×#37

×#6

Goalkeeper4

#20 Julimar — Ankle Injury

#14 Luiz Gustavo — Calf Injury

#22 C. Teran — Thigh Injury

#37 L. Esquivel — Injury

#6 Leo Derik — Injury

#20 Julimar — Ankle Injury

#14 Luiz Gustavo — Calf Injury

#22 C. Teran — Thigh Injury

#37 L. Esquivel — Injury

#6 Leo Derik — Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Yes

Over 4.5

Remo PA or Draw

Draw

Over 0.5

Over 9.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Remo PA

Athletico PR

Squad & Injuries

Remo PA

Athletico PR